An Introduction To Econometric Forecasting And Forecasting Models

The model approach to economic forecasting; Model resources and structure; Specification and validation of a forecasting model; Forecasting.

This work is the only currently available text that provides comprehensive coverage of the methods and applications in the rapidly developing field of forecasting the future state of the economy.

Edited By Lloyd G. Reynolds. The Irwin Series In Economics.

Textbook on econometrics - discusses the construction and simulation of macro-economic models; examines their use in economic analysis of economic policies and in economic forecasting; describes a research project on the international linkage of national level economic models (LINK); presents models of planned economies, with particular reference to Poland. Diagrams, graphs and references.

How to interpret and evaluate economic forecasts and the uncertainties inherent in them.

Based on two lectures presented as part of The Stone Lectures in Economics series, Arnold Zellner describes the structural econometric time series analysis (SEMTSA) approach to statistical and econometric modeling. Developed by Zellner and Franz Palm, the SEMTSA approach produces an understanding of the relationship of univariate and multivariate time series forecasting models and dynamic, time series structural econometric models. As scientists and decision-makers in industry and government world-wide adopt the Bayesian approach to scientific inference, decision-making and forecasting, Zellner offers an in-depth analysis and appreciation of this important paradigm shift. Finally Zellner discusses the alternative approaches to model building and looks at how the use and development of the SEMTSA approach has led to the production of a Marshallian Macroeconomic Model that will prove valuable to many. Written by one of the foremost practitioners of econometrics, this book will have wide academic and professional appeal.

This major book presents, for the first time, an authoritative history of developments in macroeconometric modelling since the 1930s. It focuses in particular on the construction of mathematico-statistical models of entire economies, estimated from national accounts and other macroeconomic data. International and comparative in scope, the book contains chapters prepared by specialists from the different countries concerned. This landmark book is indispensable to an understanding of the history and development of large scale econometric models of modern economies.