War And Peace In International Rivalry

This book provides the first detailed analysis of international rivalries, the long-standing and often violent confrontations between the same pairs of states. The book addresses conceptual components of rivalries and explores the origins, dynamics, and termination of the most dangerous form of rivalry--enduring rivalry--since 1816. Paul Diehl and Gary Goertz identify 1166 rivalries since 1816. They label sixty-three of those as enduring rivalries. These include the competitions between the United States and Soviet Union, India and Pakistan, and Israel and her Arab neighbors. The authors explain how rivalries form, evolve, and end. The first part of the book deals with how to conceptualize and measure rivalries and presents empirical patterns among rivalries in the period 1816-1992. The concepts derived from the study of rivalries are then used to reexamine two central pieces of international relations research, namely deterrence and "democratic peace" studies. The second half of the book builds an explanation of enduring rivalries based on a theory adapted from evolutionary biology, "punctuated equilibrium." The study of international rivalries has become one of the centerpieces of behavioral research on international conflict. This book, by two of the scholars who pioneered such studies, is the first comprehensive treatment of the subject. It will become the standard reference for all future studies of rivalries. Paul F. Diehl is Professor of Political Science and University Distinguished Teacher/Scholar, University of Illinois. He is the coeditor of Reconstructing Realpolitik and coauthor of Measuring the Correlates of War. Gary Goertz is Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Arizona, and is the coauthor with Paul Diehl of Territorial Change and International Conflict.

It's hard to think of Israel without also remembering the country's long-standing problems with its Arab neighbors. Similarly, India and Pakistan have long been less than cordial to each other. The concept of enduring rivalries and conflicts tantamount to militarized competition between two states is rapidly emerging as a subject of research in international relations. The nine contributors to The Dynamics of Enduring Rivalries place the concept in its empirical and theoretical context, exploring how such rivalries arise, what influences their development, and when and how they may escalate to war.

DIVOffers a predictive model that explains interstate rivalry /div

Why do international situations spiral out of control and into war? Why do conflicts finally wind down after years, if not decades, of tension? Various faults in conventional thinking, ranging from relying on indeterminate predictions to ignoring the interaction between domestic and international events, have impeded adequate explanations for the continuation, escalation, and dampening of rivalry conflict. In Scare Tactics: The Politics of International Rivalry, Michael P. Colaresi explains how domestic institutions and interactions among nations converge to create incentives for either war or peace. Specifically, domestic pressure to continue a rivalry and resist capitulating to the "enemy" can be exacerbated in situations where elites benefit from fear-mongering, a process Colaresi refers to as "rivalry outbidding." When rivalry outbidding becomes fused with pressure to change the status quo, even a risky escalation may be preferable to cooperation or rivalry maintenance. The eventual outcomes of such dynamic two-level pressures, if unchecked, are increased conflict, destruction, and death. Colaresi contends, however, that if leaders can resist pressures to escalate threats and step up rivalries, a deteriorating status quo can instead spur cooperation and peace.

International conflict is neither random nor inexplicable. It is highly structured by antagonisms between a relatively small set of states that regard each other as rivals. Examining the 173 strategic rivalries in operation throughout the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, this book identifies the differences rivalries make in the probability of conflict escalation and analyzes how they interact with serial crises, arms races, alliances and capability advantages. The authors distinguish between rivalries concerning territorial disagreement (space) and rivalries concerning status and influence (position) and show how each leads to markedly different patterns of conflict escalation. They argue that rivals are more likely to engage in international conflict with their antagonists than non-rival pairs of states and conclude with an assessment of whether we can expect democratic peace, economic development and economic interdependence to constrain rivalry-induced conflict.

This volume examines interstate rivalries of the past 500 years, providing case studies of those between land powers with continental orientations, and leading maritime powers and challengers. The contributors focus on the transition from commercial to strategic rivalry.

The first work covering a key element of the strategic relationship between states from ancient history to the late 20th century, Great Strategic Rivalries fills a major gap in the historiography of state relations. Each chapter provides an accessible narrative of an historically significant rivalry, comprehensively covering all aspects (political, diplomatic, economic, and military) of its history.

Alpo Rusi provides a broad vision of the strategic landscape for the coming century, warning against dangers inherent in the emerging world order. He predicts a more complexand potentially hostilemultipolar system based on four or five rival trading blocs. Despite the centrality of trade rivalries, the role of military force will not vanish. Although he considers superpower conflict unlikely, he expects that lower-level conflicts will become more prevalent. Consequently, Rusi believes that the trading blocs will have to actively pursue security arrangements that will safeguard the traditional role of the nation-state. }Examining the international system from a geopolitical and geoeconomic perspective, Alpo Rusi provides a broad vision and bold forecast of the emerging strategic landscape for the coming century. An asymmetrical world system is emerging. The United States is now the sole true world power; it forms the core of a unipolar order characterized by an uneven division of world power and economic resources. Rusi argues, however, that this postCold War order will not survive into the next century.Rusi suggests that the power vacuum in the former Soviet empire will be filled by China in Asia and by the European Union in Eastern Europe, Russias disintegration and decline in world power status will continue but may have reached its bottom line economically, and Islam will gain strength in various parts of the world, embracing a new international role. He also predicts that the world will be split into four or five distinct trading blocs: A European bloc formed around the European Union; an East Asian bloc, potentially strong, interventionist, and even aggressive, formed around China and the Singapore economic region; Japan, as a strong and still competitive economic power; and a Pan-American bloc, also strong but potentially isolationist, formed around the United States. One of the question marks will be the future ability of an orthodox Russia to facilitate conditions for an economic space. According to Rusi, these trading blocs will develop new political or geopolitical interests. For example, the European bloc will extract fossil fuels from the former Soviet Union instead of the Middle East, thereby changing the existing global trade system. Each bloc will have certain internal problemsthe Europeans will be linked to the unstable successors to the Soviet Union, the East Asian Bloc will have to contemplate whether Chinas economic growth and geopolitical expansions will create a new bipolar world in the early twenty-first century, and the Pan-American bloc will struggle with continuing political and economic instability in South and Central America.Finally, Rusi warns that it is crucial for the European and Pan-American blocs to build upon the traditional Euro-Atlantic relationship. Without it, he argues, a truly polarizedand potentially hostilebloc system will take root, most likely lining the Western pan-regions against Chinas expansiveness. }