Unemployment Persistence Structural Factors And Hysteresis

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

There is a specter haunting advanced industrial countries: structural unemployment. Recent years have seen growing concern over declining jobs, and though corporate profits have picked up after the Great Recession of 2008, jobs have not. It is possible that “jobless recoveries” could become a permanent feature of Western economies. This illuminating book focuses on the employment futures of advanced industrial countries, providing readers with the sociological imagination to appreciate the bigger picture of where workers fit in the new international division of labor. The authors piece together a puzzle that reveals deep structural forces underlying unemployment: skills mismatches caused by a shift from manufacturing to service jobs; increased offshoring in search of lower wages; the rise of advanced communication and automated technologies; and the growing financialization of the global economy that aggravates all of these factors. Weaving together varied literatures and data, the authors also consider what actions and policy initiatives societies might take to alleviate these threats. Addressing a problem that should be front and center for political economists and policymakers, this book will be illuminating reading for students of the sociology of work, labor studies, inequality, and economic sociology.

In The Persistence of Unemployment Stephen Jones presents a comprehensive assessment of persistent unemployment, specifically hysteresis, in Canadian labour markets.

This paper develops and estimates a general equilibrium rational expectations model with search and multiple equilibria where aggregate shocks have a permanent effect on the unemployment rate. If agents' wealth decreases, the unemployment rate increases for a potentially indefinite period. This makes unemployment rate dynamics path dependent as in Blanchard and Summers (1987). I argue that this feature explains the persistence of the unemployment rate in the U.S. after the Great Recession and over the entire postwar period.

Arguing that the consequences of the unemployment crisis could have been avoided by better government policies, particularly less restrictive monetary control, the contributors examine the effect of the zero-inflation policy adopted by the Bank of Canada and the role of unemployment insurance on the unemployment crisis of recent years. Their analysis includes discussion of various facets of unemployment in France, Germany, and Japan for comparison. Contents Introduction - Brian K. MacLean and Lars Osberg Digging a Hole or Laying the Foundation? The Objectives of Macroeconomic Policy in Canada - Lars Osberg The Unbearable Lightness of Zero-Inflation Optimism - Pierre Fortin (UQAM) Real Interest Rates and Unemployment - John Smithin (York) Using the NAIRU as a Basis for Macroeconomic Policy: An Evaluation - Mark Setterfield (Trinity College) Does Unemployment Insurance Increase Unemployment? - Shelley Phipps (Dalhousie) Why Do We Know So Little About Unemployment Determination and UI Effects? - Tony Myatt (UNB) Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment - Revisited - Lars Osberg The Rise of Unemployment in Ontario - Andrew Sharpe (Centre for the Study of Living Standards) Unemployment among Canada's Aboriginal Peoples - Helmar Drost (York) Unemployment Persistence in France and Germany - Dominique Gross (Simon Fraser) Low Unemployment in Japan: The Product of Socio-economic Coherence - Patrice de Broucker (Statistics Canada) A Macroeconomic Policy Package for the 1990s - Mike McCracken (Informetrica). Both critical of past performance and optimistic about future possibilities, The Unemployment Crisis makes a timely and valuable addition to current literature on economic policy.