Recent Tax Reforms In Italy

This paper evaluates elements of a comprehensive reform of the Italian tax system. Reform options are guided by the principles of reducing complexity, broadening the tax base, and lowering marginal tax rates, especially the tax burden on labor income. The revenue and distributional implications of personal income and property tax reforms are assessed with EUROMOD, while a microsimulation model is developed to evaluate VAT reform options. Simulations suggest that a substantial reduction in the tax burden on labor income can be obtained with a revenue-neutral base-broadening reform that streamlines tax expenditures and updates the property valuation system. In addition, a comprehensive reform would benefit low- and middle-income households the most, by lowering significantly their overall current tax liability, which results in increased progressivity of the tax system.

The tax burden on labour is very high in Italy. As a result, Italy has been recommended to shift some of the burden from labour to consumption, recurrent property and environmental taxes. Recent tax reforms, however, have had varying effects. While labour taxes were reduced through a refundable inwork tax credit in 2014, this year, main residences were granted a full exemption for the payment of the general service tax. To estimate the first-round budgetary impact of these reforms on labour market incentives and distributional effects, we ran a simulation exercise on EUROMOD, the European Union’s tax and benefits micro-simulation model. A further simulation was also performed to examine the impact of a hypothetical reform reducing employer social security contributions financed by removing the exemption of the services tax for primary residences. Overall, the simulations indicate that the ‘80 euro bonus’ is expected to have a positive impact on the distribution of incomes and on the tax wedge, while the benefits of abolishing the property tax on first residences is more debatable, especially when assessed against alternative uses of the same resources.

The contents of this report constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the authorities of Italy (the “TA recipient”) in response to their request for technical assistance. This report (in whole or in part) or summaries thereof may be disclosed by the IMF to IMF Executive Directors and members of their staff, as well as to other agencies or instrumentalities of the TA recipient, and upon their request, to World Bank staff and other technical assistance providers and donors with legitimate interest, unless the TA recipient specifically objects to such disclosure (see Operational Guidelines for the Dissemination of Technical Assistance Information: http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2009/040609.pdf">http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2009/040609.pdf). Disclosure of this report (in whole or in part) or summaries thereof to parties outside the IMF other than agencies or instrumentalities of the TA recipient, World Bank staff, other technical assistance providers and donors with legitimate interest shall require the explicit consent of the TA recipient and the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department.

Published in late 2017, the Italian medium-term fiscal plan aims to achieve structural balance by 2020, although concrete, high-quality measures to meet the target are yet to be specified. This paper seeks to contribute to the discussion by (i) assessing spending patterns to identify areas for savings; (ii) evaluating the pension system; (iii) analyzing the scope for revenue rebalancing; and (iv) putting forward a package of spending cuts and tax rebalancing that is growth friendly and inclusive, could have limited near-term output costs, and would achieve a notable reduction in public debt over the medium term. Such a package could help the authorities balance the need to bring down public debt and, thus, reduce vulnerabilities while supporting the economic recovery.

This paper reviews the flaws of the Italian tax system during the 1990s and the rationale for reform. The paper highlights that a fundamental reform of the tax system took place in 1971–73, and introduced three main innovations: the concentration of tax authority almost exclusively at the level of the central government; a value-added tax, in line with the rest of the European Union; and the extension of the base of the personal income tax to additional income categories. This paper also reviews the management of public spending in Italy.