Non State Threats And Future Wars

The intent behind this book was to bring together a team of defence and national security scholars and real-world military and law enforcement operators to focus on the topic of "Non-State Threats and Future Wars". The book is divided into four main sections: The first concerns theory. The second section concerns non-state threats and case studies, providing an overview of non-state threats ranging from organized crime networks to cartels, gangs and warlords. The third section is based on counter-OPFOR (opposing force) strategies which detail advanced concepts, urban battlespace environmental perceptions, weaponry, intelligence preparation, networked force structure and C41. The fourth and final section contains an archival document from the late 1987 period concerning early Fourth Epoch War theory, and never before published interviews with Chechen commanders and officers who participated in combat operations against Russian forces in the 1994-96 war.

The intent behind this book was to bring together a team of defence and national security scholars and real-world military and law enforcement operators to focus on the topic of "Non-State Threats and Future Wars". The book is divided into four main sections: The first concerns theory. The second section concerns non-state threats and case studies, providing an overview of non-state threats ranging from organized crime networks to cartels, gangs and warlords. The third section is based on counter-OPFOR (opposing force) strategies which detail advanced concepts, urban battlespace environmental perceptions, weaponry, intelligence preparation, networked force structure and C41. The fourth and final section contains an archival document from the late 1987 period concerning early Fourth Epoch War theory, and never before published interviews with Chechen commanders and officers who participated in combat operations against Russian forces in the 1994-96 war.

The nature of warfare has changed! Like it or not, terrorism has established a firm foothold worldwide. Economics and environmental issues are inextricably entwined on a global basis and tied directly to national regional security. Although traditional threats remain, new, shadowy, and mercurial adversaries are emerging, and identifying and locating them is difficult. Future War, based on the hard-learned lessons of Bosnia, Haiti, Somalia, Panama, and many other trouble spots, provides part of the solution. Non-lethal weapons are a pragmatic application of force, not a peace movement. Ranging from old rubber bullets and tear gas to exotic advanced systems that can paralyze a country, they are essential for the preservation of peace and stability. Future War explains exactly how non-lethal electromagnetic and pulsed-power weapons, the laser and tazer, chemical systems, computer viruses, ultrasound and infrasound, and even biological entities will be used to stop enemies. These are the weapons of the future.

"The United States is currently engaged in a military effort that has been characterized as the "long war." The long war has been described by some as an epic struggle against adversaries bent on forming a unified Islamic world to supplant western dominance, while others describe it more narrowly as an extension of the war on terror. But while policymakers, military leaders, and scholars have offered numerous definitions of the long war, no consensus has been reached about this term or its implications for the United States. To understand the impacts that this long war will have on the U.S. Army and on U.S. forces in general, it is necessary to understand more precisely what the long war is and how it might unfold over the coming years. To address this need, this study explores the concept of the long war and identifies potential ways in which it might unfold as well as the implications for the Army and the U.S. military more generally. This report uses the generation of either "trajectories" or alternative paths in which the long war might unfold to explore the implications for the U.S. military. The discussion focuses on the potential threats the U.S. faces in each trajectory and considers the confluence of three major problems raised by the war: those related to the ideologies espoused by key adversaries in the conflict, those related to the use of terrorism, and those related to governance (i.e., its absence or presence, its quality, and the predisposition of specific governing bodies to the United States and its interests). The goal of this report is not to determine which of these areas is the key problem. Instead, we take the stance that in order to ensure that this long war follows a favorable course, the United States will need to make a concerted effort across all three domains. Numerous broad conclusions and recommendations are given for addressing issues surrounding the long war." -- provided by publisher.

Concepts and theories of war-fighting have evolved radically over the past twenty years, resulting in equally radical changes in military doctrine. Emergent non-conventional security threats have led to a proliferation of asymmetric conflicts, while new modes of virtual warfare have developed in the realms of cyberspace. The ECSSR 18th Annual Conference, The Future of Warfare in the 21st Century, held at the Center on April 9–10, 2013 in Abu Dhabi, and the resultant papers contained in this volume, explore how warfare may be affected by technological, strategic and civil developments in the coming years, particularly the revolutionary use of remote and autonomous systems on the modern battlefield, the budding application of cyber attack and defense strategies, and the future direction of intelligence operations in the 21st century. The authors also discuss political and civil influences on the future of warfare, particularly in terms of the evolving state of civil–military relations; the growing employment of contractors in contemporary conflicts; and the complex evolving relationship between defense industries and military establishments.

This survey is a product of the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) 2001 Working Group, a project of the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University. Sponsored by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the working group is an independent, honest-broker effort intended to build intellectual capital for the upcoming QDR. More specifically, it aims to frame issues, develop options, and provide insights for the Chairman, the services, and the next administration in three areas: defense strategy, criteria for sizing conventional forces, and force structure for 2005-2010. One of the group's initial tasks was to assess the future security environment to the year 2025. This was pursued by surveying the available literature to identify areas of consensus and debate. The goal was to conduct an assessment that would be far more comprehensive than any single research project or group effort could possibly produce. This survey documents major areas of agreement and disagreement across a range of studies completed since the last QDR in 1997. Because it distills a variety of sources and organizes and compares divergent views, this volume makes a unique contribution to the literature. It also provides a particularly strong set of insights and assumptions on which both strategists and force planners can draw in the next Quadrennial Defense Review. This survey does not claim to predict or illustrate all possible wars that Anmrica might face between now and the year 2025. Rather, it attempts, through analysis of representative and reputable sources, to incorporate the most likely characteristics of the future security environment into a single scenario, while heightening our awareness of dissenting viewpoints and plausible wild cards.

Non-state threats and actors have become key topics in contemporary international security as since the end of the Cold War the notion that state is the primary unit of interest in international security has increasingly been challenged. Statistics show that today many more people are killed by ethnic conflicts, HIV/AIDS or the proliferation of small arms than by international war. Moreover, non-state actors, such as non-governmental organizations, private military companies and international regimes, are progressively complementing or even replacing states in the provision of security. Suggesting that such developments can be understood as part of a shift from government to governance in international security, this book examines both how private actors have become one of the main sources of insecurity in the contemporary world and how non-state actors play a growing role in combating these threats.

This book provides an interdisciplinary analysis of the future of US warfare, including its military practices and the domestic and global challenges it faces. The need to undertake a comprehensive analysis about the future of warfare for the US is more pressing today than ever before. New technologies and adversaries, both old and new, have the potential to revolutionize how wars are fought, and it is imperative that policy makers, military planners, and scholars engage with the latest analyses regarding these new threats and weapon systems. The primary aim of this book is to provide a clear and comprehensive depiction of the types of conflict that the United States is likely to become involved with in the future, as well as the methods of warfare that it may employ within these struggles. While a number of scholarly books have previously considered some of the potential features of US warfare in the future, many of these writings are either outdated or have limited their focus to just one or two of the main types of warfare that may occur and omitted consideration of the others. This book intends to remedy this deficiency in the literature. The volume consists of thematic chapters which address the key issues relevant to the future of US warfare, including cyber warfare, asymmetric conflicts, drone warfare, and nuclear strategy. Through the provision of a series of analyses by leading international academics, the volume provides an important interdisciplinary examination of the different areas of warfare that the United States is expected to use or encounter in the future. This book will be of great interest to students of US foreign policy, military studies, strategic studies and International Relations in general.

Impending technological advances will widen an adversary’s attack plane over the next decade. Visualizing what the future will hold, and what new threat vectors could emerge, is a task that traditional planning mechanisms struggle to accomplish given the wide range of potential issues. Understanding and preparing for the future operating environment is the basis of an analytical method known as Threatcasting. It is a method that gives researchers a structured way to envision and plan for risks ten years in the future. Threatcasting uses input from social science, technical research, cultural history, economics, trends, expert interviews, and even a little science fiction to recognize future threats and design potential futures. During this human-centric process, participants brainstorm what actions can be taken to identify, track, disrupt, mitigate, and recover from the possible threats. Specifically, groups explore how to transform the future they desire into reality while avoiding an undesired future. The Threatcasting method also exposes what events could happen that indicate the progression toward an increasingly possible threat landscape. This book begins with an overview of the Threatcasting method with examples and case studies to enhance the academic foundation. Along with end-of-chapter exercises to enhance the reader’s understanding of the concepts, there is also a full project where the reader can conduct a mock Threatcasting on the topic of “the next biological public health crisis.” The second half of the book is designed as a practitioner’s handbook. It has three separate chapters (based on the general size of the Threatcasting group) that walk the reader through how to apply the knowledge from Part I to conduct an actual Threatcasting activity. This book will be useful for a wide audience (from student to practitioner) and will hopefully promote new dialogues across communities and novel developments in the area.