Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model With Time Varying Parameters

Seminar paper from the year 2018 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 1.7, University of Duisburg-Essen (Faculty of Business and Economics), language: English, abstract: The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which is developed by Harry Markowitz, lacks on empirical validation and is not economically fully plausible. By only considering a single period within the CAPM, Merton tried to improve the model by implementing different intertemporal assumptions. This paper focuses on the analysis, if the lack of the CAPM can be improved by using the assumptions of the ICAPM and if the eight investigated models are in the sense of Merton's assumptions. The first chapter reviews a short explanation of the classical CAPM and his critics, followed by Merton's intertemporal CAPM and his assumptions in the next chapter. Additionally, there were models developed, trying to be economically plausible by considering the ICAPM main assumptions, which are presented in the second chapter. A different way to develop an empirical better fitting CAPM is by using empirical motivated state variables. Fama & French started to take this approach by developing the three-factor-model (FF3). A lot of researchers were influenced by the FF3 and made their own version of a multifactor model by implementing variables. Even Fama & French enhanced their three-factor-model by adding further variables. In the third section there is the forecasting power of the four ICAPM models and the four empirical motivated multifactor models on the US market data and on the European market data compared. Then follows an examination if these models can be determined in the sense of the ICAPM restrictions. The last chapter concludes the results.

A simple valuation model that allows for time variation in investment opportunities is developed and estimated. The model assumes that the investment opportunity set is completely described by two state variables, the real interest rate and the maximum Sharpe ratio, which follow correlated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. The model parameters and time series of the state variables are estimated using data on US Treasury bond yields and inflation for the period January 1952 to December 2000. The estimated state variables are shown to be related to the equity premium and to the level of stock prices as measured by the dividend yield. Innovations in the estimated state variables are shown to be related to the returns on the Fama-French arbitrage portfolios, HML and SMB, providing a possible explanation for the risk premia on these portfolios. When tracking portfolios for the state variable innovations are constructed using returns on 6 size and book-to market equity sorted portfolios, the tracking portfolios explain the risk premia on HML and SMB, and these state variable tracking portfolios perform about as well as HML and SMB in explaining the cross-section of returns on the 25 size and book-to market equity sorted value weighted portfolios. An additional test of the ICAPM using returns on 30 industrial portfolios does not reject the model while the CAPM and the Fama-French 3 factor model are rejected using the same data.

While mainstream financial theories and applications assume that asset returns are normally distributed and individual preferences are quadratic, the overwhelming empirical evidence shows otherwise. Indeed, most of the asset returns exhibit “fat-tails” distributions and investors exhibit asymmetric preferences. These empirical findings lead to the development of a new area of research dedicated to the introduction of higher order moments in portfolio theory and asset pricing models. Multi-moment asset pricing is a revolutionary new way of modeling time series in finance which allows various degrees of long-term memory to be generated. It allows risk and prices of risk to vary through time enabling the accurate valuation of long-lived assets. This book presents the state-of-the art in multi-moment asset allocation and pricing models and provides many new developments in a single volume, collecting in a unified framework theoretical results and applications previously scattered throughout the financial literature. The topics covered in this comprehensive volume include: four-moment individual risk preferences, mathematics of the multi-moment efficient frontier, coherent asymmetric risks measures, hedge funds asset allocation under higher moments, time-varying specifications of (co)moments and multi-moment asset pricing models with homogeneous and heterogeneous agents. Written by leading academics, Multi-moment Asset Allocation and Pricing Models offers a unique opportunity to explore the latest findings in this new field of research.

This book proposes a new capital asset pricing model dubbed the ZCAPM that outperforms other popular models in empirical tests using US stock returns. The ZCAPM is derived from Fischer Black’s well-known zero-beta CAPM, itself a more general form of the famous capital asset pricing model (CAPM) by 1990 Nobel Laureate William Sharpe and others. It is widely accepted that the CAPM has failed in its theoretical relation between market beta risk and average stock returns, as numerous studies have shown that it does not work in the real world with empirical stock return data. The upshot of the CAPM’s failure is that many new factors have been proposed by researchers. However, the number of factors proposed by authors has steadily increased into the hundreds over the past three decades. This new ZCAPM is a path-breaking asset pricing model that is shown to outperform popular models currently in practice in finance across different test assets and time periods. Since asset pricing is central to the field of finance, it can be broadly employed across many areas, including investment analysis, cost of equity analyses, valuation, corporate decision making, pension portfolio management, etc. The ZCAPM represents a revolution in finance that proves the CAPM as conceived by Sharpe and others is alive and well in a new form, and will certainly be of interest to academics, researchers, students, and professionals of finance, investing, and economics.

Research Paper (undergraduate) from the year 2008 in the subject Business economics - Banking, Stock Exchanges, Insurance, Accounting, grade: 1,3, University of Cooperative Education, language: English, abstract: The objective of this paper is to give an overview of the most important movements of the complex area of asset pricing. This will be tried by logically structuring and building up the topic from its origins, the Capital Asset Pricing Model, and then over its main points of critique, in order to arrive at the different options developed by financial science that try to resolve those problematic aspects. Due to the complexity of this subject and the limited scope of this paper, obviously it will not be possible to discuss each model or movement in depth. Coherently, the aim is to point out the main thoughts of each aspect discussed. For further information, especially concerning the deeper mathematical backgrounds and derivations of the models, the author would like to refer the reader to the books mentioned in this paper. Many of those works, finance journal publications and the literature on asset pricing in general, set their focus on different parts of this paper, which again underlines the complexity in terms of scientific scope and intellectual and mathematical intricacy of this topic.

Studies consistently find that inflation is an important augmented factor for intertemporal capital asset pricing models (ICAPMs) when pricing the Fama-French 25 size and book-to-market portfolios. We extend this line of research by investigating two alternative ICAPM models (from Michel; Hahn and Lee) and the three-factor model from Hou et al. We find significant evidence that both ICAPMs and Hou et al.'s three-factor model perform better when augmented with inflation than the original models. The augmented models achieve a good model fit with the fewest factors, thus avoiding or alleviating the over-fitting problem.