How Economic Political And Institutional Factors Influence The Choice Of Exchange Rate Regimes

In this paper, we investigate how economic, political and institutional factors affect the choice of exchange rate regimes, using data on eight MENA (Middle East and North Africa) countries over the 1984-2016 period. Specifically, we run random-effects ordered probit regressions of the likelihood of exchange rate regimes on potential determinants of exchange rate regimes. Three important findings emerge from the analysis. i) Political and institutional factors play an important role in determining the exchange rate regime in MENA countries: a democratic political regime and a low level of corruption increases the probability to opt for a fixed regime. While, strong governments, political stability such as less internal conflicts and more government stability, more law and order enforcement and left-wing Government decreases the probability to opt for a fixed regime. ii) Bureaucracy, independent central banks, elections, terms of trade as well as the monetary independence have no effect on the choice of exchange rate regimes. iii) Financial development is not a robust determinant of the choice of exchange rate regimes. Our results still hold when considering alternative specifications and have important implications for policy makers in MENA countries.

The politics surrounding exchange rate policies in the global economy The exchange rate is the most important price in any economy, since it affects all other prices. Exchange rates are set, either directly or indirectly, by government policy. Exchange rates are also central to the global economy, for they profoundly influence all international economic activity. Despite the critical role of exchange rate policy, there are few definitive explanations of why governments choose the currency policies they do. Filled with in-depth cases and examples, Currency Politics presents a comprehensive analysis of the politics surrounding exchange rates. Identifying the motivations for currency policy preferences on the part of industries seeking to influence politicians, Jeffry Frieden shows how each industry's characteristics—including its exposure to currency risk and the price effects of exchange rate movements—determine those preferences. Frieden evaluates the accuracy of his theoretical arguments in a variety of historical and geographical settings: he looks at the politics of the gold standard, particularly in the United States, and he examines the political economy of European monetary integration. He also analyzes the politics of Latin American currency policy over the past forty years, and focuses on the daunting currency crises that have frequently debilitated Latin American nations, including Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. With an ambitious mix of narrative and statistical investigation, Currency Politics clarifies the political and economic determinants of exchange rate policies.

This book considers the issue of exchange rate policymaking from a political economy perspective. It illustrates both theoretically and empirically how domestic political and institutional incentives shape exchange rate policies in developing countries. Empirical analysis is based on a panel survey of 47 countries and thereby provides insights on how political and institutional conditions typically affect exchange rate policy.

Political economists consider the political and economic factors that affect a country's choice of monetary institutions. Recent analysis by political economists of monetary institution determinants in different countries has been limited by the fact that exchange rate regimes and central bank institutions are studied in isolation from each other, without examining how one institution affects the costs and benefits of the other. By contrast, the contributors to this volume analyze the choice of exchange rate regime and level of central bank independence together; the articles (originally published in a special issue of International Organization) constitute a second generation of research on the determinants of monetary institutions. The contributors consider both economic and political factors to explain a country's choice of monetary institutions, and examine the effect of political processes in democracies, including interest group pressure, on the balance between economic and distributional policy.

Using recent advances in the classification of exchange rate regimes, this paper finds no support for the popular bipolar view that countries will tend over time to move to the polar extremes of free float or rigid peg. Rather, intermediate regimes have shown remarkable durability. The analysis suggests that as economies mature, the value of exchange rate flexibility rises. For countries at a relatively early stage of financial development and integration, fixed or relatively rigid regimes appear to offer some anti-inflation credibility gain without compromising growth objectives. As countries develop economically and institutionally, there appear to be considerable benefits to more flexible regimes. For developed countries that are not in a currency union, relatively flexible exchange rate regimes appear to offer higher growth without any cost in credibility.

This paper examines whether decisions about the appropriate exchange rate regime in six Central American countries were based on longer-run economic fundamentals or on the confluence of historical and political circumstances. To uncover any actual relationship both across countries and across time, we estimate several probit and multinomial logit models of exchange rate regime choice with data spanning the period 1974-2001. We find that theoretical long-run determinants, such as trade openness, export share with the major trading partner, economic size, and per capita income, are adequate, but not robust, predictors of exchange rate regime choice. However, we were not able to establish a statistically significant association between the terms of trade fluctuations or capital account openness and a particular regime in any specification using our sample.

The exchange rate is a crucial variable linking a nation's domestic economy to the international market. Thus choice of an exchange rate regime is a central component in the economic policy of developing countries and a key factor affecting economic growth. Historically, most developing nations have employed strict exchange rate controls and heavy protection of domestic industry-policies now thought to be at odds with sustainable and desirable rates of economic growth. By contrast, many East Asian nations maintained exchange rate regimes designed to achieve an attractive climate for exports and an "outer-oriented" development strategy. The result has been rapid and consistent economic growth over the past few decades. Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries explores the impact of such diverse exchange control regimes in both historical and regional contexts, focusing particular attention on East Asia. This comprehensive, carefully researched volume will surely become a standard reference for scholars and policymakers.

Throughout the transition and developing world, the choice of exchange rate regime is one of the most important and controversial policy decisions. What are the main factors that determine the choices of governments in exchange rate policy? What are the structures and institutions that allow governments to credibly commit to and sustain a fixed exchange rate regime? These are the central questions for this study. To answer these questions, I examine the puzzling variation in exchange rate regime choices in Eastern Europe (EE) and changes in these choices over time. This study is an attempt to explore the determinants of the "de facto" exchange rate arrangements chosen by policymakers in EE. I combine the choice and the sustainability of fixed exchange rate regimes in a political-economic approach. The project's central finding is that exchange rate regime choices depend on several factors: first, on the different interests and strategies of incumbent domestic (state-owned and private) and foreign banks in determining exchange rate policies; and second, on the bank ownership structure and institutional variation of national financial systems. The variation in national financial systems between EE countries is, in turn, a function of the variation in privatization strategies and openness to foreign investments in the banking sector. This research thus demonstrates how the connection between financial interests and exchange rate regime choices is mediated by domestic financial systems. This dissertation integrates theories of financial development into interest groups theories in the political economy of exchange rates. I evaluate this argument against two types of evidence. Statistical analysis of cross-national time-series data allows me to test the impact of financiers on exchange rate policies against a sample of twenty-five EE countries between 1990 and 2004. Statistical analysis is accompanied by in-depth examination of four theoretically important cases-Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Poland, and Estonia-based on a thorough reading of the relevant secondary literature, the perusal of central bank, government and archival documents, and the conducting of 105 semi-structured interviews. The thesis develops a novel four-fold typology of financial systems in EE-capture, collusion, consensus, and competition-exemplified by the four countries.