Forecasting Container Freight Rates

The purpose of this study is to analyse the behaviour of container freight rate time series with econometric tools in order to attempt an accurate forecast, as well as to justifyi our numerical findings based on maritime economic theory . There is a gap when it comes to forecasting container freight rates, as existing literature mainly looks into the dry bulk sector or oil shipping. This is most likely attributable to the homogeneity of the cargo of the dry bulk and oil segments, which makes the economic reasoning for the models more substantial, as the industry segment in question trades a widely available commodity, or comparable good. This makes assumptions about perfectly competitive markets more convenient instead of looking at a shipping segment that transports many different kinds of goods, as is the case within container shipping. However, as container shipping companies provide comparable services, this should not pose problems, especially when using macroeconomic modelling. This paper attempts to contribute to the development of a forecasting model for container freight rates by conducting an econometric analysis of average container freight rates which are easily accessible to professionals, in order to pave a path for further research within this field.

This book models price behaviour and forecasts prices in the dry bulk shipping market, a major component of the world shipping industry. Recent uncertainties in the world economy, shipbuilding developments and fleet changes mean the dry bulk shipping market has become extremely volatile, highly speculative and more sensitive to external shocks. In response to these challenging circumstances, this book models price behaviour and forecasts prices in various markets including the freight market, the new build ship market and the second-hand ship market. The authors have carried out an extensive investigation of dry bulk shipping over a 60-year period in diverse sub-markets, trading routes, market conditions and dry bulk vessels. The authors also propose a framework for analysing and modelling the economic processes of numerous variables in the dry bulk shipping market, making use of modern econometric techniques and other economic approaches. This will be especially useful for the control and assessment of risk for ship owners and charterers in ship operation, ship chartering and ship trading activities. This book will be extremely useful for shipbuilders, owners and charterers, as well as shipping analysts and policymakers. It will also be of great interest to academics and researchers concerned with the economics of the shipping industry.

The thesis investigates various techniques for forecasting the volume of containerizable cargo that flows into the container stuffing station at the Military Ocean Terminal, Bay Area, Oakland, California. Cargo input data is analyzed in terms of weekly cargo volume inputs for a selected number of major ports of debarkation. The time-series data for these ports is first tested for serial correlation. Based on the affirmative results of the serial correlation test, the following forecasting methods are investigated: the moving average, the exponentially wighted average, the exponentially weighted average with trend adjustment and the exponentially weighted average with an adaptive response rate. By means of statistical testing procedures, the best forecasting method is determined.

IContainers is an on-line maritime freight forwarder firm that offers real time prices on its website for container freight transportation services. This business model has allowed to keep a record of historical rates, although until now it has been never used with analysis purposes. This master thesis aims to change that, using rates data in order to build models with the ultimate objective of forecasting. It covers all the stages in a typical data-based project: data collection and reliability check, data exploration, modelling, forecasting and finally implementation of the results. Transportation rates data are not trivial, since they have both a time and a space dimension. In this context, statistical techniques that are able to deal with both have been used. Amongst them, it has been of utmost importance the use of multinomial bayesian generalised mixed models which, inspired by Markov chains, act as transition models that allow to infer how likely it is for a rate to go up, down or remain stable in the future.

Essay from the year 2011 in the subject Economy - Transport Economics, grade: A, Heriot-Watt University Edinburgh, language: English, abstract: Ship owners trade in four different markets: The new building market, the freight market, the sales- and purchasing market and the demolition market. This paper summarises the container freight market. At first the paper will define the market and involved parties. Secondly key concepts as well as involved mechanism of the freight market will be introduced. After that, the last ten years trend will be presented and mentioned mechanism and concepts will be applied accordingly. Finally the summary will end with a conclusion.

This book covers the theory, design and applications of computer networks, distributed computing and information systems. Networks of today are going through a rapid evolution, and there are many emerging areas of information networking and their applications. Heterogeneous networking supported by recent technological advances in low-power wireless communications along with silicon integration of various functionalities such as sensing, communications, intelligence and actuations is emerging as a critically important disruptive computer class based on a new platform, networking structure and interface that enable novel, low-cost and high-volume applications. Several of such applications have been difficult to realize because of many interconnections problems. To fulfill their large range of applications, different kinds of networks need to collaborate, and wired and next generation wireless systems should be integrated in order to develop high-performance computing solutions to problems arising from the complexities of these networks. The aim of the book “Advanced Information Networking and Applications” is to provide the latest research findings, innovative research results, methods and development techniques from both theoretical and practical perspectives related to the emerging areas of information networking and applications.