Essays On Monetary Policy

Central banks use a series of relatively small interest rate changes in adjusting their monetary policy stance. This persistence in interest rate changes is well documented by empirical monetary policy reaction functions that feature a large estimated coefficient for the lagged interest rate. The two hypotheses that explain the size of this large estimated coefficient are monetary policy inertia and serially correlated macro shocks. In the first part of my dissertation, I show that the effect of inertia on the Federal Reserve's monthly funds rate adjustment is only moderate, and smaller than suggested by previous studies. In the second part, I present evidence that the temporal aggregation of interest rates puts an upward bias on the size of the estimated coefficient for the lagged interest rate. The third part of my dissertation is inspired by recent developments in the housing market and the resulting effect on the overall economy. In this third essay, we show that high loan-to-value mortgage borrowing reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy.

Reprinting the second edition (which included a new introduction explaining developments which had emerged since first publication) this book discusses explorations in the fundamental theory of a monetary economy, a theoretical critique of the ‘Phillips Curve’ approach to the theory of inflation and the theory of the term structure of interest rates in terms of the theory of forward markets pioneered by David Meiselman.

Standard macroeconomic monographs often discuss the mechanism of monetary transmission, usually ending by highlighting the complexities and uncertainties involved in this mechanism. Conversely, The Preparation of Monetary Policy takes these uncertainties as a starting point, analytically investigating their nature and spelling out their consequences for the monetary policy maker. The second innovative aspect of this book is its focus on policy preparation instead of well-covered topics such as monetary policy strategy, tactics, and implementation. Thirdly, a general, multi-model framework for preparing monetary policy is proposed, which is illustrated by case studies stressing the role of international economic linkages and of expectations. Written in a self-contained fashion, these case studies are of interest by themselves. The book is written for an audience that is interested in the art and science of monetary policy making, which includes central bankers, academics, and (graduate) students in the field of monetary economics, macroeconomics, international economics and finance.

This thesis consists of three essays on optimal monetary policy. In the first essay I study time-consistent monetary policy in an small open economy model with incomplete financial markets. I demonstrate the existence of two discretionary equilibria. The model is capable of explaining periods of different exchange rate volatilities as well as the transition between those regimes. Following a shock the economy can be stabilised either `quickly' or `slow', where both dynamic paths satisfy the conditions of optimality and time-consistency. I also show that a policy of partially targeting the exchange rate results in far worse welfare outcomes relative to a strict inflation targeting policy. In the second essay, I analyse how a policy maker can avoid expectation traps and coordination failures. Using a framework developed by Schaumburg and Tambalotti (2007) and Debortoli and Nunes (2010) in which a policy maker may or may not default on past promises I show that already mild degrees of precommitment are sufficient to generate uniqueness of the Pareto-preferred equilibrium. In the last chapter, I examine optimal monetary policy from an empirical perspective. I estimate a simple small open economy model separately for a policy maker acting under commitment and discretion and find that the data favours the commitment approach. Furthermore, the data suggest that the Bank of Canada did not target the nominal exchange rate in the inspected time period.

Reprinting the second edition (which included a new introduction explaining developments which had emerged since first publication) this book discusses explorations in the fundamental theory of a monetary economy, a theoretical critique of the ‘Phillips Curve’ approach to the theory of inflation and the theory of the term structure of interest rates in terms of the theory of forward markets pioneered by David Meiselman.

A sequel to Essays in Monetary Economics, this book develops the ideas on domestic and international monetary issues, with reference to specific events and crises of the 1960s and 70s. These essays are distinguished by the author’s expert grasp of the analytical techniques and contemporaneous policy problems of both domestic and international monetary economics.

This book provides a comprehensive overview, in the form of eight long essays, of the evolution of monetary theory over the three-quarters of century, from the time of Keynes to the present day. The essays are originally based on lecture notes from a graduate course on Advanced Monetary Economics offered at York University, Toronto, written in the style of academic papers. The essays are mathematical in method — but also take a historical perspective, tracing the evolution of monetary thought through the Keynesian model, the monetarist model, new classical model, etc, up to and including the neo-Wickesellian models of the early 21st century. The book will be an essential resource for both graduate and advanced undergraduate students in economics, as well as for individual researchers seeking basic information on the theoretical background of contemporary debates.

This volume consists of selected previously published key essays which have proved most useful for teaching advanced monetary economics. A short introduction was added which places the selection of essays and the issues they cover in the contemporaneous context of simultaneous high inflation and high unemployment. As relevant today as they were when they were first written, they enable the reader to anticipate intelligently what is likely to happen and why.