Early Warning In Conflict Prevention

Background Sketch: Howard Adelman.

The Horn of Africa has come to be defined by the frequency and intensity of its violent conflicts. Yet, whereas in other regions conflict prevention stresses formal, top-down inter-governmental structures, in the Horn of Africa an alternative conflict management regime that seeks to build on local capacity and is based on inclusive and collaborative decision-making has emerged. This publication outlines the two-year process of CEWARN's and IGAD's development.

Based on literature review and inputs from surveyed agencies, this book assesses the value and role of early warning for the prevention of violent conflict and identifies the most effective systems.

The Cairo Declaration adopted by the OAU in 1993 established a Mechanism for Conflict Prevention, Management and Resolution. Discusses ways in which the OAU should extend the concept of early warning and its application to conflicts in Africa.

"The purpose of this thesaurus and glossary is to present definitions of terms and concepts used in the field of conflict, especially with relation to intra-state conflicts and the practice of early warning and conflict prevention" -- v.

Based on literature review and inputs from surveyed agencies, this book assesses the value and role of early warning for the prevention of violent conflict and identifies the most effective systems.

State failure, ethnopolitical war, genocide, famine, and refugee flows are variants of a type of complex political and humanitarian crisis, exemplified during the 1990s in places like Somalia, Bosnia, Liberia, and Afghanistan. The international consequences of such crises are profound, often threatening regional security and requiring major inputs of humanitarian assistance. They also may pose long-term and costly challenges of rebuilding shattered governments and societies. A vital policy question is whether failures can be diagnosed far enough in advance to facilitate effective international efforts at prevention or peaceful transformation. This volume of original essays examines crisis early warning factors at different levels, in different settings, and judges their effectiveness according to various models. Top contributors offer answers along with analyses as they move from early warning to early response in their policy recommendations.

Violent conflicts today are complex and increasingly protracted, involving more nonstate groups and regional and international actors. It is estimated that by 2030—the horizon set by the international community for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals—more than half of the world’s poor will be living in countries affected by high levels of violence. Information and communication technology, population movements, and climate change are also creating shared risks that must be managed at both national and international levels. Pathways for Peace is a joint United Nations†“World Bank Group study that originates from the conviction that the international community’s attention must urgently be refocused on prevention. A scaled-up system for preventive action would save between US$5 billion and US$70 billion per year, which could be reinvested in reducing poverty and improving the well-being of populations. The study aims to improve the way in which domestic development processes interact with security, diplomacy, mediation, and other efforts to prevent conflicts from becoming violent. It stresses the importance of grievances related to exclusion—from access to power, natural resources, security and justice, for example—that are at the root of many violent conflicts today. Based on a review of cases in which prevention has been successful, the study makes recommendations for countries facing emerging risks of violent conflict as well as for the international community. Development policies and programs must be a core part of preventive efforts; when risks are high or building up, inclusive solutions through dialogue, adapted macroeconomic policies, institutional reform, and redistributive policies are required. Inclusion is key, and preventive action needs to adopt a more people-centered approach that includes mainstreaming citizen engagement. Enhancing the participation of women and youth in decision making is fundamental to sustaining peace, as well as long-term policies to address the aspirations of women and young people.