An Analysis Of The Global Atmospheric Methane Budget Under Different Climates

Understanding, quantifying, and tracking atmospheric methane and emissions is essential for addressing concerns and informing decisions that affect the climate, economy, and human health and safety. Atmospheric methane is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) that contributes to global warming. While carbon dioxide is by far the dominant cause of the rise in global average temperatures, methane also plays a significant role because it absorbs more energy per unit mass than carbon dioxide does, giving it a disproportionately large effect on global radiative forcing. In addition to contributing to climate change, methane also affects human health as a precursor to ozone pollution in the lower atmosphere. Improving Characterization of Anthropogenic Methane Emissions in the United States summarizes the current state of understanding of methane emissions sources and the measurement approaches and evaluates opportunities for methodological and inventory development improvements. This report will inform future research agendas of various U.S. agencies, including NOAA, the EPA, the DOE, NASA, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), and the National Science Foundation (NSF).

Ice cores are considered the gold standard for recording past climate and biogeochemical changes. However, gas records derived from ice core analysis have until now been largely limited to centennial and longer timescales because sufficient temporal resolution and analytical precision have been lacking, except during rare times when atmospheric concentrations changed rapidly. In this thesis I used a newly developed methane measurement line to make high-resolution, high-precision measurements of methane during the late Holocene (2800 years BP to present). This new measurement line is capable of an analytical precision of 3 ppb using ~120 g samples whereas the previous highest resolution measurements attained a precision of ± 4.1 ppb using 500-1500g samples [MacFarling Meure et al., 2006]. The reduced sample size requirements as well as automation of a significant portion of the analysis process have enabled me to make1500 discrete ice core methane measurements and construct the highest resolution records of methane available over the late Holocene. Ice core samples came from the recently completed West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide ice core which has as one of its primary scientific objectives to produce the highest resolution records of greenhouse gases, and from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project (GISP2) ice core which is a proven paleoclimate archive. My thesis has the following three components. I first used a shallow ice core from WAIS Divide (WDC05A) to produce a 1000 year long methane record with a ~9 year temporal resolution. This record confirmed the existence of multidecadal scale variations that were first observed in the Law Dome, Antarctica ice core. I then explored a range of paleoclimate archives for possible mechanistic connections with methane concentrations on multidecadal timescales. In addition, I present a detailed description of the analytical methods used to obtain high-precision measurements of methane including the effects of solubility and a new chronology for the WDC05A ice core. I found that, in general, the correlations with paleoclimate proxies for temperature and precipitation were low over a range of geographic regions. Of these, the highest correlations were found from 1400-1600 C.E. during the onset of the Little Ice Age and with a drought index in the headwater region of the major East Asian rivers. Large population losses in Asia and the Americas are also coincident with methane concentration decreases indicating that anthropogenic activities may have been impacting multidecadal scale methane variability. In the second component I extended the WAIS Divide record back to 2800 years B.P. and also measured methane from GISP2D over this time interval. These records allowed me to examine the methane Inter-Polar Difference (IPD) which is created by greater northern hemispheric sources. The IPD provides an important constraint on changes in the latitudinal distribution of sources. We used this constraint and an 8-box global methane chemical transport model to examine the Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis which posits that humans began influencing climate thousands of years ago by increasing greenhouse gas emissions and preventing the onset of the next ice age. I found that most of the increase in methane sources over this time came from tropical regions with a smaller contribution coming from the extratropical northern hemisphere. Based on previous modeling estimates of natural methane source changes, I found that the increase in the southern hemisphere tropical methane emissions was likely natural and that the northern hemispheric increase in methane emissions was likely due to anthropogenic activities. These results also provide new constraints on the total magnitude of pre-industrial anthropogenic methane emissions, which I found to be between the high and low estimates that have been previously published in the literature. For the final component of my thesis I assembled a coalition of scientists to investigate the effects of layering on the process of air enclosure in ice at WAIS Divide. Air bubbles are trapped in ice 60-100m below the surface of an ice sheet as snow compacts into solid ice in a region that is known as the Lock-In Zone (LIZ). The details of this process are not known and in the absence of direct measurements previous researchers have assumed it to be a smooth process. This project utilized high-resolution methane and air content measurements as well as density of ice, [delta] 15N of N2, and bubble number density measurements to show that air entrapment is affected by high frequency (mm scale) layering in the density of ice within the LIZ. I show that previous parameterizations of the bubble closure process in firn models have not accounted for this variability and present a new parameterization which does. This has implications for interpreting rapid changes in trace gases measured in ice cores since variable bubble closure will impact the smoothing of those records. In particular it is essential to understand the details of this process as new high resolution ice core records from Antarctica and Greenland examine the relative timing between greenhouse gases and rapid climate changes.

The impact on climate from 200 years of industrial development is an everyday fact of life, but did humankind's active involvement in climate change really begin with the industrial revolution, as commonly believed? Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum has sparked lively scientific debate since it was first published--arguing that humans have actually been changing the climate for some 8,000 years--as a result of the earlier discovery of agriculture. The "Ruddiman Hypothesis" will spark intense debate. We learn that the impact of farming on greenhouse-gas levels, thousands of years before the industrial revolution, kept our planet notably warmer than if natural climate cycles had prevailed--quite possibly forestalling a new ice age. Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum is the first book to trace the full historical sweep of human interaction with Earth's climate. Ruddiman takes us through three broad stages of human history: when nature was in control; when humans began to take control, discovering agriculture and affecting climate through carbon dioxide and methane emissions; and, finally, the more recent human impact on climate change. Along the way he raises the fascinating possibility that plagues, by depleting human populations, also affected reforestation and thus climate--as suggested by dips in greenhouse gases when major pandemics have occurred. While our massive usage of fossil fuels has certainly contributed to modern climate change, Ruddiman shows that industrial growth is only part of the picture. The book concludes by looking to the future and critiquing the impact of special interest money on the global warming debate. In the afterword, Ruddiman explores the main challenges posed to his hypothesis, and shows how recent investigations and findings ultimately strengthen the book's original claims.

Methane is an important greenhouse gas that can cause global warming. The present concentrations of methane are nearly three times higher than several hundred years ago. Today, more than 60% of the atmospheric methane comes from human activities, including rice agriculture, coal mining, natural gas usage, biomass burning, and raising of cattle. Methane affects the stratospheric ozone layer and the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere, which in turn control the concentrations of many man-made and natural gases in the atmosphere. This book brings together our knowledge of the trends and the causes behind the increased levels of methane. Based on the scientific information on the sources and sinks, and the role of methane in global warming, strategies to limit emissions can be designed as part of a program to control future global warming.

Climate Change: Evidence and Causes is a jointly produced publication of The US National Academy of Sciences and The Royal Society. Written by a UK-US team of leading climate scientists and reviewed by climate scientists and others, the publication is intended as a brief, readable reference document for decision makers, policy makers, educators, and other individuals seeking authoritative information on the some of the questions that continue to be asked. Climate Change makes clear what is well-established and where understanding is still developing. It echoes and builds upon the long history of climate-related work from both national academies, as well as on the newest climate-change assessment from the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It touches on current areas of active debate and ongoing research, such as the link between ocean heat content and the rate of warming.

"Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas and is estimated to be responsible for approximately one-fifth of man-made global warming. Per kilogram, it is 25 times more powerful than carbon dioxide over a 100-year time horizon -- and global warming is likely to enhance methane release from a number of sources. Current natural and man-made sources include many where methane-producing micro-organisms can thrive in anaerobic conditions, particularly ruminant livestock, rice cultivation, landfill, wastewater, wetlands and marine sediments. This timely and authoritative book provides the only comprehensive and balanced overview of our current knowledge of sources of methane and how these might be controlled to limit future climate change. It describes how methane is derived from the anaerobic metabolism of micro-organisms, whether in wetlands or rice fields, manure, landfill or wastewater, or the digestive systems of cattle and other ruminant animals. It highlights how sources of methane might themselves be affected by climate change. It is shown how numerous point sources of methane have the potential to be more easily addressed than sources of carbon dioxide and therefore contribute significantly to climate change mitigation in the 21st century."--Publisher's description.

Emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels have ushered in a new epoch where human activities will largely determine the evolution of Earth's climate. Because carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is long lived, it can effectively lock the Earth and future generations into a range of impacts, some of which could become very severe. Emissions reductions decisions made today matter in determining impacts experienced not just over the next few decades, but in the coming centuries and millennia. According to Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts Over Decades to Millennia, important policy decisions can be informed by recent advances in climate science that quantify the relationships between increases in carbon dioxide and global warming, related climate changes, and resulting impacts, such as changes in streamflow, wildfires, crop productivity, extreme hot summers, and sea level rise. One way to inform these choices is to consider the projected climate changes and impacts that would occur if greenhouse gases in the atmosphere were stabilized at a particular concentration level. The book quantifies the outcomes of different stabilization targets for greenhouse gas concentrations using analyses and information drawn from the scientific literature. Although it does not recommend or justify any particular stabilization target, it does provide important scientific insights about the relationships among emissions, greenhouse gas concentrations, temperatures, and impacts. Climate Stabilization Targets emphasizes the importance of 21st century choices regarding long-term climate stabilization. It is a useful resource for scientists, educators and policy makers, among others.