Zero Bound Option Implied Pdfs And Term Structure Models

In this book, well-known expert Riccardo Rebonato provides the theoretical foundations (no-arbitrage, convexity, expectations, risk premia) needed for the affine modeling of the government bond markets. He presents and critically discusses the wealth of empirical findings that have appeared in the literature of the last decade, and introduces the 'structural' models that are used by central banks, institutional investors, sovereign wealth funds, academics, and advanced practitioners to model the yield curve, to answer policy questions, to estimate the magnitude of the risk premium, to gauge market expectations, and to assess investment opportunities. Rebonato weaves precise theory with up-to-date empirical evidence to build, with the minimum mathematical sophistication required for the task, a critical understanding of what drives the government bond market.

Changing interest rates constitute one of the major risk sources for banks, insurance companies, and other financial institutions. Modeling the term-structure movements of interest rates is a challenging task. This volume gives an introduction to the mathematics of term-structure models in continuous time. It includes practical aspects for fixed-income markets such as day-count conventions, duration of coupon-paying bonds and yield curve construction; arbitrage theory; short-rate models; the Heath-Jarrow-Morton methodology; consistent term-structure parametrizations; affine diffusion processes and option pricing with Fourier transform; LIBOR market models; and credit risk. The focus is on a mathematically straightforward but rigorous development of the theory. Students, researchers and practitioners will find this volume very useful. Each chapter ends with a set of exercises, that provides source for homework and exam questions. Readers are expected to be familiar with elementary Itô calculus, basic probability theory, and real and complex analysis.

In this paper we implement dynamic term structure models that adopt bonds and Asian options in the estimation process. The goal is to analyze the pricing and hedging implications of term structure movements when options are (or not) included in the estimation process. We analyze how options affect the shape, risk premium and hedging structure of the dynamic factors. We find that the inclusion of options affects the loadings of the slope and curvature factors, and considerably changes the risk premium and hedging structure of all dynamic factors.

The success over the years in reducing inflation and, consequently, the average level of nominal interest rates has increased the likelihood that the nominal policy interest rate may become constrained by the zero lower bound. When that happens, a central bank can no longer stimulate aggregate demand by further interest-rate reductions and must rely on "non-standard" policy alternatives. To assess the potential effectiveness of such policies, we analyze the behavior of selected asset prices over short periods surrounding central bank statements or other types of financial or economic news and estimate "noarbitrage" models of the term structure for the United States and Japan. There is some evidence that central bank communications can help to shape public expectations of future policy actions and that asset purchases in large volume by a central bank would be able to affect the price or yield of the targeted asset.

Written by one of the leading experts in the field, this book focuses on the interplay between model specification, data collection, and econometric testing of dynamic asset pricing models. The first several chapters provide an in-depth treatment of the econometric methods used in analyzing financial time-series models. The remainder explores the goodness-of-fit of preference-based and no-arbitrage models of equity returns and the term structure of interest rates; equity and fixed-income derivatives prices; and the prices of defaultable securities. Singleton addresses the restrictions on the joint distributions of asset returns and other economic variables implied by dynamic asset pricing models, as well as the interplay between model formulation and the choice of econometric estimation strategy. For each pricing problem, he provides a comprehensive overview of the empirical evidence on goodness-of-fit, with tables and graphs that facilitate critical assessment of the current state of the relevant literatures. As an added feature, Singleton includes throughout the book interesting tidbits of new research. These range from empirical results (not reported elsewhere, or updated from Singleton's previous papers) to new observations about model specification and new econometric methods for testing models. Clear and comprehensive, the book will appeal to researchers at financial institutions as well as advanced students of economics and finance, mathematics, and science.

Learn how quantitative models can help fight client problems head-on Before financial problems can be solved, they need to be fully understood. Since in-depth quantitative modeling techniques are a powerful tool to understanding the drivers associated with financial problems, one would need a solid grasp of these techniques before being able to unlock their full potential of the methods used. In The Mathematics of Financial Models, the author presents real world solutions to the everyday problems facing financial professionals. With interactive tools such as spreadsheets for valuation, pricing, and modeling, this resource combines highly mathematical quantitative analysis with useful, practical methodologies to create an essential guide for investment and risk-management professionals facing modeling issues in insurance, derivatives valuation, and pension benefits, among others. In addition to this, this resource also provides the relevant tools like matrices, calculus, statistics and numerical analysis that are used to build the quantitative methods used. Financial analysts, investment professionals, risk-management professionals, and graduate students will find applicable information throughout the book, and gain from the self-study exercises and the refresher course on key mathematical topics. Equipped with tips and information, The Mathematics of Financial Models Provides practical methodologies based on mathematical quantitative analysis to help analysts, investment and risk-management professionals better navigate client issues Contains interactive tools that demonstrate the power of analysis and modeling Helps financial professionals become more familiar with the challenges across a range of industries Includes a mathematics refresher course and plenty of exercises to get readers up to speed The Mathematics of Financial Models is an in-depth guide that helps readers break through common client financial problems and emerge with clearer strategies for solving issues in the future.