Will Farmland Values Keep Booming

Lean supplies, strong export activity, and vibrant demand both at home and abroad have pushed crop prices to record highs, offsetting today¿s spiraling production costs. As a result, farm profits and investments have soared, and farmland values have boomed. The author discusses current farmland value trends and analyzes the factors underlying the recent surge. He concludes that the recent surge in farmland values tracks expected gains in crop returns. At the same time, however, an unexpected surge in production costs or a drop in crop prices could undercut farmland values and pose a financial risk to the farm sector. Thus far, however, the industry¿s debt levels are up only modestly, helping to mitigate the risks of a drop in farm incomes. Charts and tables.

Of immeasurable value to lenders, agricultural economists, and a host of agribusinesses this unique volume brings together leading farmland authorities in the United States and Canada to examine the economic determinants of land value and the consequences of change in land values. As the most basic factor of production in the agricultural enterprise, farmland dominates the agricultural balance sheet, accounting for an average of 70% of all agricultural assets. The authors of this timely book provide expert analysis and review of this subject.

Because farm real estate represents much of the value of U.S. farm sector assets, large swings in farmland values can affect the financial well-being of agricultural producers. This report examines both macroeconomic (interest rates, prices of alternative investments) and parcel-specific (soil quality, government payments, proximity to urban areas) factors that affect farmland values. In the last few years, U.S. farmland values have been supported by strong farm earnings, which have helped the farm sector in many regions to withstand the residential housing downturn. Historically low interest rates are likely a significant contributor to farming's current ability to support higher land values. About 40 percent of U.S. farmland has been rented over the last 25 years. Non-operators (landowners who do not themselves farm) owned 29 percent of land in farms in 2007, though that proportion has declined since 1992.