Volatility In Natural Gas And Oil Markets

Using daily futures price data, I examine the behavior of natural gas and crude oil price volatility since 1990. I test whether there has been a significant trend in volatility, whether there was a short-term increase in volatility during the time of the Enron collapse, and whether natural gas and crude oil price volatilities are interrelated. I also measure the persistence of shocks to volatility and discuss its implications for gas-and oil-related contingent claims.

As OPEC has loosened its grip over the past ten years, the oil market has been rocked by wild price swings, the likes of which haven't been seen for eight decades. Crafting an engrossing journey from the gushing Pennsylvania oil fields of the 1860s to today's fraught and fractious Middle East, Crude Volatility explains how past periods of stability and volatility in oil prices help us understand the new boom-bust era. Oil's notorious volatility has always been considered a scourge afflicting not only the oil industry but also the broader economy and geopolitical landscape; Robert McNally makes sense of how oil became so central to our world and why it is subject to such extreme price fluctuations. Tracing a history marked by conflict, intrigue, and extreme uncertainty, McNally shows how—even from the oil industry's first years—wild and harmful price volatility prompted industry leaders and officials to undertake extraordinary efforts to stabilize oil prices by controlling production. Herculean market interventions—first, by Rockefeller's Standard Oil, then, by U.S. state regulators in partnership with major international oil companies, and, finally, by OPEC—succeeded to varying degrees in taming the beast. McNally, a veteran oil market and policy expert, explains the consequences of the ebbing of OPEC's power, debunking myths and offering recommendations—including mistakes to avoid—as we confront the unwelcome return of boom and bust oil prices.

How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.

This paper examines the behavior of crude oil prices since 1980, and in particular the volatility of these prices. The empirical analysis covers “spot” prices for one of the key internationally traded crudes, namely Dated Brent Blend. A GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic) model, which allows the conditional variance to be time-variant, is estimated for the period which includes the oil price slump of 1986 and the surge in prices in 1990 as a result of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. The paper also discusses the growth of futures and derivative markets and the dynamic links between spot and futures markets.

This paper examines the relationship between monetary policy and oil prices within a world oil demand and supply model. Low price and high income elasticities of demand and rigid supply explain high price volatilities and producers' market power. Exchange and interest rates do influence oil market equilibrium. The relationship between oil prices and interest rates is a two-way relationship that depends on the type of oil shock. During a supply shock, rising oil prices caused interest rates to increase; whereas during a demand shock, falling interest rates caused oil prices to rise. Record low interest rates led to high oil price volatility in 2005. Data shows that world economic growth and price stability require stable oil markets and therefore more prudent monetary policies.

This introduction to wavelet analysis 'from the ground level and up', and to wavelet-based statistical analysis of time series focuses on practical discrete time techniques, with detailed descriptions of the theory and algorithms needed to understand and implement the discrete wavelet transforms. Numerous examples illustrate the techniques on actual time series. The many embedded exercises - with complete solutions provided in the Appendix - allow readers to use the book for self-guided study. Additional exercises can be used in a classroom setting. A Web site offers access to the time series and wavelets used in the book, as well as information on accessing software in S-Plus and other languages. Students and researchers wishing to use wavelet methods to analyze time series will find this book essential.

Since its launch in 2001, Gas Trading Manual (GTM) has established itself as the leading information source on the international gas market. Compiled from the contributions of some of the most senior and widely respected figures in the trade, this edition provides detailed and accurate analysis on all aspects of this complex business from the geography of gas through to the markets, trading instruments, contracts, gas pricing, accounting and taxation. This edition further enhances its reputation as the indispensable practical companion for all those involved in the trading of gas.