Uae Power Projection Capabilities In The Horn Of Africa Analyzed Within Neo Classical Realism

The thesis studies the manifestations of UAE power in the Horn of Africa in an attempt to unpack and critically assess the developments and drivers that have led the UAE to reach the Horn of Africa with its power assets and armed capabilities. Additionally, it seeks to apply the principles and conventions of neoclassical realism on the UAE use of power in the Horn. The hypothesis of the research is that the course of the UAE and Horn relations and how they unfold can be better analyzed through the lenses of neoclassical realism. Chapter 1 introduces the reader to the research and gives an overview of the thesis. This introduction provides us with some useful insights about the strategic and geopolitical weight of the Horn Region. Furthermore, it analyzes how it is intimately related to the stability and security of the Gulf region, the UAE in particular, and how the Horn could be a source of strength and of weakness as well if seized by the UAE rivals who may utilize the Horn to outflank the Gulf Region and its economy. Additionally, the introduction elaborates on the sources of UAE soft power and its importance, impact and role it plays in settling disputes and achieving hegemony. Soft power that if applied properly and with the support of hard power will be more productive and ward off conflicts and how the soft power becomes more productive and fruitful if coupled with and supported by hard power. Chapter 2 discusses the definition of both soft and hard powers as considered by the well-regarded writers and how the distinction and defining demarcations between hard power and soft power are still blurry. It demonstrates the disagreements among scholars on the effectiveness of soft power and whether the economic power falls within the soft or the hard power. It delves into the comparison between soft and hard power and establishes relation between them and the dichotomy of multilateralism for unilateralism. Moreover, the chapter explains the classification of soft power into high and low levels, or private and public, or direct and indirect. And besides, it sheds light on the UAE regional attempts, since the Arab Spring of 2011, to project its hard power represented in a dynamic and defensive foreign policy that has growingly relied on military means. It highlights the balance of effectiveness between hard and soft powers and the arguments raised by scholars and academic writers about which of them is more impactful given the reality of the international politics. Before the chapter is concluded, the reader is introduced to the theoretical framework of the study which is the neoclassical realism. It offers an overview on the theory and the similarities and dissimilarities with other international relation theories. It touches on the different elements of the theory which stretch to include international system, the state, as the main actor in international politics, its capabilities and the how the elite realize both of them. Since the UAE is a small state and is, consequently, considered weak, the chapter explains what best inform our analysis of the weak state behavior; is it vulnerability or material power of the state. The literature review handled by this chapter lays the foundation for our discussion in chapter 4.Chapter 3 focuses on the methodology used to conduct the research. In general, the research applies qualitative foreign policy analysis to understand the dimensions and manifolds of the UAE projection of power in the Horn of Africa, exploring the manifestations and motives. The research adopts an approach that is contextualised, open-ended, and interpretive. Building on the literature review, the thesis dedicates a chapter for the discussion. Chapter 4 meticulously analyzes the recent regional developments and the power projection activities of both adversary camps KSA and UAE on one side, Turkey and Qatar on the other side. It discusses in detail the terrorist movements operating in the Horn States. The most dominant terrorist forces are the Mujahideen Al-Shabaab and Al-Qaeda. The chapter sheds light on each of the four Horn States with a brief background on the UAE-Horn relations. It seeks to unweave how the UAE is projecting its soft and hard power in the region at different levels. Additionally, the thesis gives us some insights into the reasons and dimensions of UAE growing reliance on its hard assets and its expansion beyond its borders. The chapter concludes with the how we can understand the relations between UAE and the Horn from the perspective of neoclassical realism. How we can better explain the nexus of relations between UAE power projection, its national and regional interests, its status on the hierarchy of the international system and finally the hostilities of its adversaries in the Horn. Chapter 5 leads us into conclusion and policy Recommendations. This chapter discusses the findings reached through exploring and analysis of the UAE projection of power linked to the regional developments in light of the principles and tenets of the neoclassical realism. The thesis is concluded by offering policy recommendations.

This book develops the idea that since decolonisation, regional patterns of security have become more prominent in international politics. The authors combine an operational theory of regional security with an empirical application across the whole of the international system. Individual chapters cover Africa, the Balkans, CIS Europe, East Asia, EU Europe, the Middle East, North America, South America, and South Asia. The main focus is on the post-Cold War period, but the history of each regional security complex is traced back to its beginnings. By relating the regional dynamics of security to current debates about the global power structure, the authors unfold a distinctive interpretation of post-Cold War international security, avoiding both the extreme oversimplifications of the unipolar view, and the extreme deterritorialisations of many globalist visions of a new world disorder. Their framework brings out the radical diversity of security dynamics in different parts of the world.

Neoclassical realism is a major theoretical approach to the study of foreign policy. In Neoclassical Realist Theory of International Relations, Norrin M. Ripsman, Jeffrey W. Taliaferro, and Steven E. Lobell argue that it can explain and predict a far broader range of political phenomena in international politics. Neoclassical realism challenges other approaches, including structural realism, liberalism, and constructivism.

This anthology discusses the converging operational issues of air base defense and counterinsurgency. It explores the diverse challenges associated with defending air assets and joint personnel in a counterinsurgency environment. The authors are primarily Air Force officers from security forces, intelligence, and the office of special investigations, but works are included from a US Air Force pilot and a Canadian air force officer. The authors examine lessons from Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and other conflicts as they relate to securing air bases and sustaining air operations in a high-threat counterinsurgency environment. The essays review the capabilities, doctrine, tactics, and training needed in base defense operations and recommend ways in which to build a strong, synchronized ground defense partnership with joint and combined forces. The authors offer recommendations on the development of combat leaders with the depth of knowledge, tactical and operational skill sets, and counterinsurgency mind set necessary to be effective in the modern asymmetric battlefield.

When insurgent organizations factionalize and fragment, it can profoundly shape a civil war: its intensity, outcome, and duration. In this extended treatment of this complex and important phenomenon, Michael Woldemariam examines why rebel organizations fragment through a unique historical analysis of the Horn of Africa's civil wars. Central to his view is that rebel factionalism is conditioned by battlefield developments. While fragmentation is caused by territorial gains and losses, counter-intuitively territorial stalemate tends to promote rebel cohesion and is a critical basis for cooperation in war. As a rare effort to examine these issues in the context of the Horn of Africa region, based upon extensive fieldwork, this book will interest both scholarly and non-scholarly audiences interested in insurgent groups and conflict dynamics.

Transmittal letter.

The debate about globalisation and its discontents

For a variety of contributing factors, the defense and security status of the Gulf region is facing a dilemma between the maintenance of regional security and the preservation of domestic security interests. This dilemma stems from the perceived decline of U.S. influence and lingering consequences of the Arab Spring movements. Divisions and armed conflicts, both within the Gulf itself and the surrounding region are a result of this changing political order and the ascension of many of the Gulf states on the international scene. These evolving dynamics will set in motion various defense and security consequences for the Gulf and the greater Middle East which are addressed in this edited volume. With contributions from practitioners as well as academics, this book will be a vital resource for both researchers and policymakers.

In the context of the disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the Horn of Africa remains one of the most dynamic and intriguing regions on the African continent. The political processes currently under way – including the recent conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region – have deep implications that reflect on the domestic equilibria within the area’s core states - Ethiopia itself, but also Eritrea, Somalia and Djibouti – as well as on the relations among them.The nature and extent of involvement by external, non-African players is bound to be affected too.How is the Horn of Africa changing, following the leadership transition in Ethiopia? What are the main political and security prospects for the region and for the states belonging to it? And how will ongoing dynamics impact on European political strategies?

This important report, Global Trends 2030-Alternative Worlds, released in 2012 by the U.S. National Intelligence Council, describes megatrends and potential game changers for the next decades. Among the megatrends, it analyzes: - increased individual empowerment - the diffusion of power among states and the ascent of a networked multi-polar world - a world's population growing to 8.3 billion people, of which sixty percent will live in urbanized areas, and surging cross-border migration - expanding demand for food, water, and energy It furthermore describes potential game changers, including: - a global economy that could thrive or collapse - increased global insecurity due to regional instability in the Middle East and South Asia - new technologies that could solve the problems caused by the megatrends - the possibility, but by no means the certainty, that the U.S. with new partners will reinvent the international system Students of trends, forward-looking entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades will find this essential reading.