Treatment Of Exchange Rate Issues In Bilateral Surveillance

Review the quality of the Fund staff’s analysis and policy advice on exchange rate issues. The Fund is sometimes criticized for not taking a sufficiently clear position on several exchange rate issues, ranging from the assessment of the level of exchange rates to the description of exchange rate policies, and their adequacy. Is this criticism valid, and in what respect? Answering these questions is critical as exchange rate issues are at the heart of the Fund’s surveillance mandate.

Review the quality of the Fund staff's analysis and policy advice on exchange rate issues. The Fund is sometimes criticized for not taking a sufficiently clear position on several exchange rate issues, ranging from the assessment of the level of exchange rates to the description of exchange rate policies, and their adequacy. Is this criticism valid, and in what respect? Answering these questions is critical as exchange rate issues are at the heart of the Fund's surveillance mandate.

This note provides country teams with guidance on bilateral and multilateral surveillance in the context of Article IV consultations. It covers the following issues: Focus on stability. Stability is the organizing principle of surveillance. Article IV consultations should focus on the conduct of economic and financial policies pursued by members to promote present and prospective domestic and balance of payments stability, as well as global economic and financial stability. For the latter, Article IV consultations should discuss spillovers from members’ economic and financial policies that may significantly affect global stability, including alternative policy options that would minimize their adverse impact. Operational guidance. The note provides detailed guidance, suggestions and references in areas covered in surveillance including risks and spillovers, fiscal policy, macrofinancial and monetary policy, BOP stability, structural policies and data issues. Communication and Engagement. Effective two-way communication is key to surveillance, including with the authorities (to help staff’s advice get traction), the Executive Board (to support effective peer review), and the public and other stakeholders (to gain support for necessary policy adjustments). Surveillance messages need to be clear, concise, and focused. The Fund needs to be evenhanded, in line with the principle of uniformity of treatment, for surveillance to command the confidence of the membership. Process and formal requirements. A number of procedures, rules, and requirements are summarized in this note.

The Fund has continued to make great efforts to enhance financial sector focus and analytics in bilateral surveillance. The main initiatives include enhancing collaboration with other multilateral institutions, improving analytical tools and methodologies, and a major strengthening of the financial sector capabilities in area departments. The fruits of these efforts are already visible in the better treatment of financial sector issues in Article IV reports

This update of the guidelines published in 2001 sets forth the underlying framework for the Reserves Data Template and provides operational advice for its use. The updated version also includes three new appendices aimed at assisting member countries in reporting the required data.

The IMF is charged by its Articles of Agreement and a 1977 Executive Board Decision to exercise surveillance over the international monetary system and members’ exchange rate policies. The overriding question addressed by this evaluation is whether, over the 1999–2005 period, the IMF fulfilled this core responsibility. The main finding is that the IMF was simply not as effective as it needs to be in both its analysis and advice and in its dialogue with member countries. The evidence supporting this conclusion, along with other key findings, is set out in this report. The report also presents a detailed set of recommendations that could go a long way in improving the quality and effectiveness of IMF surveillance.

This review of the Decision forms part of a more comprehensive approach to strengthen the effectiveness of surveillance.

This is the 64th issue of the AREAER. It provides a description of the foreign exchange arrangements, exchange and trade systems, and capital controls of all IMF member countries. It also provides information on the operation of foreign exchange markets and controls on international trade. It describes controls on capital transactions and measures implemented in the financial sector, including prudential measures. In addition, it reports on exchange measures imposed by member countries for security reasons. A single table provides a snapshot of the exchange and trade systems of all IMF member countries. The Overview describes in detail how the general trend toward foreign exchange liberalization continued during 2012, alongside a strengthening of the financial sector regulatory framework. The AREAER is available in several formats. The Overview in print and online, and the detailed information for each of the 191 member countries and territories is included on a CD that accompanies the printed Overview and in an online database, AREAER Online. In addition to the information on the exchange and trade system of IMF member countries in 2012, AREAER Online contains historical data published in previous issues of the AREAER. It is searchable by year, country, and category of measure and allows cross country comparisons for time series.

Using recent advances in the classification of exchange rate regimes, this paper finds no support for the popular bipolar view that countries will tend over time to move to the polar extremes of free float or rigid peg. Rather, intermediate regimes have shown remarkable durability. The analysis suggests that as economies mature, the value of exchange rate flexibility rises. For countries at a relatively early stage of financial development and integration, fixed or relatively rigid regimes appear to offer some anti-inflation credibility gain without compromising growth objectives. As countries develop economically and institutionally, there appear to be considerable benefits to more flexible regimes. For developed countries that are not in a currency union, relatively flexible exchange rate regimes appear to offer higher growth without any cost in credibility.