Transportation Planning And Impact Forecasting Tools

Authors′ ad copy***Use whenever possible*** The Clean Air Act of 1991 and the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1994 require that metropolitan transportation planning agencies give high priority to the improvement of air quality. Under these laws, transportation planners must design regional highway and transit systems that contribute substantially to the attainment of federal air quality standards. This new requirement reveals important limitations to the standard methods by which transportation planners do their work. The mathematical models and statistical techniques used by transportation planners appear to be inadequate to enable them to analyze the air quality implications of alternative transportation plans. This was the situation when a group of environmental organizations brought suit in federal district court alleging that the Metropolitan Transportation Commission in the San Francisco Bay area had violated requirements of these laws in its transportation planning and highway funding activities. This volume provides an account of the legal dispute that pitted environmentalists against regional transportation planners, and which demonstrated that regional transportation planning methods are in need of substantial improvement. This monograph should be of interest to urban planners, environmentalists, public policy analysts, and those who apply mathematical modeling and statistical analysis to questions of public policy. The authors--an attorney and a transportation planner who took part in the lawsuit--analyze the specific arguments made by both sides in this important legal action, and draw from the specific case broader conclusions about the role of technical analysis in public policy making. *************************************************************** Urban planning does not and cannot exist in isolation--there are a large number of external factors that impact on a planner′s work including politics and the planning commission; environmental impact studies; and national, state, and local legislation. Focusing on the interrelations between federal legislation, the judicial process, and transportation planning, Transportation Planning on Trial examines the interaction between regional transportation planning and environmental, particularly air, quality. This unique volume is designed to help urban planners understand the legal restrictions and requirements that directly impact how they operate. It considers two recent federal legislation pieces--the Clean Air Act of 1990 and the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991--that mark the most important landmarks in a decade-long shift in emphasis in regional transportation planning. This groundbreaking volume will be vitally important to transportation planners, students of urban and transportation planning, transportation policymakers, environmentalists and environmental lawyers.

The idea for this book had its origins in a series of working papers prepared for the Georgia Transportation Planning Land Use Model project. The book is not an official report on that project and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Georgia Department of Transportation. Mrs. Catherine Bennett, Systems Designer, assisted in the special run of the Georgia State Econometric Model in Chapter 2. Mr. Richard Burns and Miss Louise Shedd, research assistant!i, aided in data assembly and analysis for Chapters 3 and 5. The authors wish to express their particular thanks to Mrs. Dallas Gonzales, who provided editorial assistance, and to Mrs. Deborah Conklin, who typed the final manuscript. Table of contents PREFACE v LIST OF TABLES x LIST OF FIGURES xii 1. INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW PAUL F. WENDT Urban growth theories 1 Land use models 4 The Georgia transportation planning land use model 6 Employment and population submodel 7 Description of the Delphi technique 8 Housing and population submodel 9 Relationships between land use forecasting 10 Summary 12 2. NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ECONOMETRIC MODELS 16 JOHN B. LEGLER AND TERRY D. ROBERTSON Macro-econometric models 16 Problems in constructing regional econometric models 19 The Georgia model 20 Testing the Georgia model 22 Forecasts and applications of the Georgia model 25 An example of impact analysis using the Georgia state model 28 Summary 30 3. GROWTH AND CHANGE IN THE GEORGIA REGIONAL ECONOMIES 32 CHARLES F.

Panels for Transportation Planning argues that panels - repeated measurements on the same sets of households or individuals over time - can more effectively capture dynamic changes in travel behavior, and the factors which underlie these changes, than can conventional cross-sectional surveys. Because panels can collect information on household attributes, attitudes and perceptions, residential and employment choices, travel behavior and other variables - and then can collect information on changes in these variables over time - they help us to understand how and why people choose to travel as they do, and how and why these choices are likely to evolve in the future. This book is designed for a wide audience: survey researchers who seek information on methodological advancements and applications; transportation planners who want an improved understanding of dynamic changes in travel behavior; and instructors of graduate courses in urban and transportation planning, research methods, economics, sociology, and public policy. Each chapter has been prepared to stand alone to illustrate a particular theme or application. The book is divided into topical parts which address the most salient issues in the use of panels for transportation planning: panels as evaluation tools, regional planning applications, accounting for response bias, and modeling and forecasting issues. These parts describe panel applications in the US, Australia, Great Britain, Japan, and the Netherlands. Each chapter is supplemented by extensive references; more than 400 studies, reflecting the work of more than 700 authors, are cited in the text.

TRB’s National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 716: Travel Demand Forecasting: Parameters and Techniques provides guidelines on travel demand forecasting procedures and their application for helping to solve common transportation problems.

Provides guidance in forecasting/allocation methods used in sub- county (including urban) areas.