Three Essays In Macroeconomic Empirics And Monetary Theory

This series of essays explores the soundness of the Alternative Monetary Model (AMM) of Smithin (2013, 2018) via an examination of the monetary policy and monetary transmission mechanism in Canada. The AMM has assumptions that are more consistent with the real world than other approaches to macroeconomics and monetary theory, and the reliability of the AMM through the business cycle will be examined. The model was tested using abduction and numerical methods. The results were also tested econometrically, and the predictions of the directional change of the variables were found to have an accuracy of 91%. Historical simulations were conducted to examine the ability of the AMM to mimic the time profiles of actual economic events. The simulations indicate that if the central bank were to have implemented a real interest rate rule during these historical periods, there would have been better economic outcomes. The monetary transmission mechanism between the Bank of Canada and commercial banks is examined. Evidence suggests this relationship has changed over the period of study and that monetary policy changes have affected commercial bank activities more swiftly since the 1980s. Additional evidence supporting the endogeneity of the money supply was found. Debt dynamics were examined, and certain convergence conditions for debt-to-GDP ratios were established. In almost all cases balanced budgets are not necessary to maintain a stable debt-to-GDP ratio. In much of the existing theoretical literature, it is assumed that interest rates are greater than the growth rate to maintain the assumptions of the transversality conditions, the no-Ponzi constraint, and Ricardian equivalence. However, it was found that in half of the periods studied, Canadas real interest rates were less than the real growth rate violating these assumptions. Monetary policy was found to have a significant effect on government interest rates, whereas fiscal policy was only found to have a marginal effect. This lends credence to the idea that monetary policy should play a critical supporting role in government debt sustainability, through a real interest rate rule, as this has a strong effect on both interest rates at commercial banks and bond yields throughout the economy.

That the chapters in the volume cover such a wide range of important, often fundamental, topics is a proper tribute to Basil Moore s influence and contributions over his working life. From the foreword by G.C. Harcourt, Jesus College, Cambridge, UK During a distinguished career, Basil Moore has made numerous important contributions to macroeconomics and monetary economics, and is renowned as the progenitor of the horizontalist analysis of endogenous money. More recently, he has embraced complexity theory as part of an ongoing effort to understand macroeconomics as an evolving, path-dependent process. This book celebrates and explores Basil Moore s interests in and contributions to monetary and macroeconomic theory. Complexity, Endogenous Money and Macroeconomic Theory features original essays by internationally acclaimed and expert authors. It comprises a selection of papers on five distinct but interrelated themes: economic concepts, tools and methodology; complexity, uncertainty and path dependence; the macroeconomics of endogenous money; the macroeconomics of exogenous interest rates; and unemployment, inflation and the determination of aggregate income. These papers combine to provide a comprehensive methodological and theoretical discussion of the macroeconomics of a monetary production economy. The book will be of interest to professionals and research students in the fields of macroeconomics and monetary economics especially those with an interest in the Post Keynesian approach to analyzing these fields, including the wide audience that has been reached by the contributions of Basil Moore himself.

This edited volume, with contributions by area experts, offers discussions on a range of evolving topics in economics and social development. At center are important issues central to sustainable development, economic growth, technological change, the economics of climate change, commodity markets, long wave theory, non-linear dynamic models, and boom-bust cycles. This is an excellent reference for academic and professional economists interested in emerging areas of empirical macroeconomics and finance. For policy makers and curious readers alike, it is also an outstanding introduction to the economic thinking of those who seek a holistic and all-compassing approach in economic theory and policy. Looking into new data and methodology, this book offers fresh approaches in a post-crisis environment. Set in a profound understanding of the diverse currents within the many traditions of economic thought, this book pushes the established frontiers of economic thinking. It is dedicated to a leading scholar in the areas covered in this book, Willi Semmler.