The Security Demographic

This report presents a framework for understanding the implications of global demographic trends for international and U.S. national Security. One of its goals is to spark discussion between demographers and national security analysts. The document should be of interest to security analysts, demographers, foreign policymakers, and general audiences interested in the implications of demographic trends for international security policy. This research was jointly sponsored by the Population Matters project in RAND's Labor and Population Program and by the RAND Arroyo Center. A principal goal of Population Matters is to inform both public and specialist audiences about the findings of demographic research and their implications for policy. The Population Matters project is funded by grants from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the Rockefeller Foundation, and the David and Lucile Packard Foundation. The Arroyo Center is a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the United States Army. This work, inspired by prior research on alternative security futures conducted in the Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program of the Arroyo Center, drew only from sources in the public domain. The principal aim of this report is to provide a framework for understanding the influence of demographic factors on international security issues. Specifically, three major questions are addressed: what current demographic trends pose international security concerns? What are the security implications of these trends? what are the implications for U.S. foreign, defense, and intelligence policies?

Military recruitment will become more difficult in times of demographic aging. The question arises whether demographic change will constrain the capacity of aging states like Germany to conduct foreign policy and pursue their national security interests. Since contemporary military operations still display a strong human element, particular scrutiny is given to the empirical analysis of the determinants of military propensity and military service among youth. An additional human capital projection until 2030 illustrates how the decline in the youth population will interact with trends in educational attainment and adolescent health to further complicate military recruitment in the future. A concluding review of recruiting practices in other NATO countries provides insight in best-practice policy options to reduce the military’s sensitivity to demographic change. Following this approach, the book gives prominence to a topic that has thus far been under-represented in the greater discussion of demographic change today, namely the demographic impact on international affairs and strategic calculations.

Demographic factors seldom directly cause conflict between nations. They can, however, exacerbate existing tensions and increase the risk of violent conflict. Long- term fertility trends, urbanization, migration, and changes in the ethnic composition and age profile of populations can influence the likelihood and nature of conflict among and within nations. Brian Nichiporuk explores these issues in The Security Dynamics of Demographic Factors, seeking to answer three questions in particular. First, which demographic trends pose international security concerns? Second, what are the security implications of these trends? Third, what should the United States do% in response to these issues? The future international security environment, of course, will be determined by complex interactions between geographical alignments, technologic%al advances, economic developments, environmental trends, and demographic factors. This research does not address all these complex interactions, but it does note the direction in which demographic factors can affect security issues.

The field of political demography - the politics of population change - is dramatically underrepresented in political science. At a time when demographic changes - aging in the rich world, youth bulges in the developing world, ethnic and religious shifts, migration, and urbanization - are waxing as never before, this neglect is especially glaring and starkly contrasts with the enormous interest coming from policymakers and the media. "Ten years ago, [demography] was hardly on the radar screen," remarks Richard Jackson and Neil Howe of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, two contributors to this volume. "Today," they continue, "it dominates almost any discussion of America's long-term fiscal, economic, or foreign-policy direction." Demography is the most predictable of the social sciences: children born in the last five years will be the new workers, voters, soldiers, and potential insurgents of 2025 and the political elites of the 2050s. Whether in the West or the developing world, political scientists urgently need to understand the tectonics of demography in order to grasp the full context of today's political developments. This book begins to fill the gap from a global and historical perspective and with the hope that scholars and policymakers will take its insights on board to develop enlightened policies for our collective future.

Hospitals and nursing homes are responding to changes in the health care system by modifying staffing levels and the mix of nursing personnel. But do these changes endanger the quality of patient care? Do nursing staff suffer increased rates of injury, illness, or stress because of changing workplace demands? These questions are addressed in Nursing Staff in Hospitals and Nursing Homes, a thorough and authoritative look at today's health care system that also takes a long-term view of staffing needs for nursing as the nation moves into the next century. The committee draws fundamental conclusions about the evolving role of nurses in hospitals and nursing homes and presents recommendations about staffing decisions, nursing training, measurement of quality, reimbursement, and other areas. The volume also discusses work-related injuries, violence toward and abuse of nursing staffs, and stress among nursing personnelâ€"and examines whether these problems are related to staffing levels. Included is a readable overview of the underlying trends in health care that have given rise to urgent questions about nurse staffing: population changes, budget pressures, and the introduction of new technologies. Nursing Staff in Hospitals and Nursing Homes provides a straightforward examination of complex and sensitive issues surround the role and value of nursing on our health care system.

Political scientists, demographers, legal scholars, and historians have come together in this volume, under the direction of the late Myron Weiner, one of the leading scholars in this field, to address three of the major sets of questions in the field of political demography: How changes in demographic variables - population size, growth, distribution, and composition - influence threats (real or perceived) to a country's political stability and security; how governments respond to demographic trends; and how governments attempt to change demographic variables in order to enhance national security.

The United States is in the midst of a major demographic shift. In the coming decades, people aged 65 and over will make up an increasingly large percentage of the population: The ratio of people aged 65+ to people aged 20-64 will rise by 80%. This shift is happening for two reasons: people are living longer, and many couples are choosing to have fewer children and to have those children somewhat later in life. The resulting demographic shift will present the nation with economic challenges, both to absorb the costs and to leverage the benefits of an aging population. Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population presents the fundamental factors driving the aging of the U.S. population, as well as its societal implications and likely long-term macroeconomic effects in a global context. The report finds that, while population aging does not pose an insurmountable challenge to the nation, it is imperative that sensible policies are implemented soon to allow companies and households to respond. It offers four practical approaches for preparing resources to support the future consumption of households and for adapting to the new economic landscape.

"A timely, stimulating, and very readable volume." - Journal of International Migration and Integration "Essays in the true sense ... they are readable, wide-ranging historically and geographically." - Population and Development Review "The essays are clearly written, well-reasoned and contain a wealth of examples...It will be read with profit by students who are looking for a readable and sensible overview of the field." - Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies "Over the past decade, the impacts of demographic trends on international security and on peaceful relations between and within states have come to the fore in ways not seen since the aftermath of World War II. An evolving and more complex set of changes in the size, distribution, and composition of populations has become the basis for a new look at the security effects of changes in the size, distribution, and composition of populations. This book is an attempt to lay out the new look, to take issue with some of the prevailing views on the political consequences of population change and to suggest where the concerns are realistic and where they are not." (From the Preface) This book not only offers a magisterial analysis of the political effects of the dramatic population changes that are taking place in countries all around the world, it also represents the testimony of one of the most distinguished scholars in the field of migration and population studies. Myron Weiner, former Professor of Political Science at MIT and Chair of the External Research Advisory Committee of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Michael S. Teitelbaum, a demographer, is Program Director at the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation in New York.

This volume addresses the most important issues of the ongoing discussion on designing social security. It provides fundamental results for pay-as-you-go social security, covers the issues of social security during demographic transition and examines the inclusion of risk aspects into the analysis of social security. An empirical case study of Germany yields the surprising result that de facto the German public pension scheme already comprises an implicit demographic factor. This book allows a subtle understanding of how interacting risks are treated within different pension systems and thereby provides a basis for the development of innovative ways of risk sharing.