The Report Indonesia 2014

On the cusp of 2014 national elections and the 2015 integration of the ASEAN Economic Community, Indonesia is poised to continue its rapid economic expansion. While the country’s natural resources are still plentiful, by channelling foreign direct investment into the right areas, the government is ensuring that true potential, in terms of value and manufacturing, is achieved. By inviting targeted investment and adapting existing regulatory frameworks, the government has taken significant steps to facilitate foreign investment and the development of value-added industries. Indonesia is a country renowned for its abundance of natural resources, which include oil, gas, coal, nickel, tin, copper, gold and silver. While slightly down on the previous year, the country’s total oil production for 2012 stood at 861,000 barrels per day, accounting for approximately 1.2% of the world’s oil production. Indonesia remains the world’s largest exporter of thermal coal, exporting a total of 304m tonnes in 2012 to countries such as Japan, South Korea, China and India. The country continues to be the dominant nation in South-east Asia politically and economically, and its participation within ASEAN in particular will likely determine the shape of regional integration, with the introduction of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in 2015 looming as the bloc’s next major milestone.

In 2004 the Indonesian government made a commitment to provide its entire population with health insurance coverage through a mandatory public health insurance scheme. It has moved boldly already provides coverage to an estimated 76.4 million poor and near poor, funded through the public budget. Nevertheless, over half the population still lacks health insurance coverage, and the full fiscal impacts of the government's program for the poor have not been fully assessed or felt. In addition, significant deficiencies in the efficiency and equity of the current health system, unless addressed will exacerbate cost pressures and could preclude the effective implementation of universal coverage (Ue and the desired result of improvements in population health outcomes and financial protection. For Indonesia to achieve UC, systems' performance must be improved and key policy choices with respect to the configuration of the health financing system must be made. Indonesia's health system performs well with respect to some health outcomes and financial protection, but there is potential for significant improvement. High-level political decisions are necessary on key elements of the health financing reform package. The key transitional questions to get there include: [ the benefits that can be afforded and their impacts on health outcomes and financial protection; [ how the more than 50 percent of those currently without coverage will be insured; [ how to pay medical care providers to assure access, efficiency, and quality; [ developing a streamlined and efficient administrative structure; [ how to address the current supply constraints to assure availability of promised services; [ how to raise revenues to finance the system, including the program for the poor as well as currently uninsured groups that may require government subsidization such as the more than 60 million informal sector workers, the 85 percent of workers in firms of less than five employees, and the 70 percent of the population living in rural areas.

With the application of the right policies, Indonesia could return to growth above 6%, and perhaps eventually reach the 7% target set by the new president. The government intends to double expenditure in the key areas of public works, transport and agriculture, and new plans include the construction of 2600 km of roads, 15 airports, 24 ports, 3258 km of railway and the addition of around 35,000 MW to the state electricity company’s current capacity. The investments to be made in infrastructure have the potential to boost the economy in both the short and long term. A shift to more investment and less consumption would help lead to more sustainable growth and insulate the country from external shocks. Already the numbers are starting to head in the right direction.

In 2011 the World Bank—with funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation—launched the Global Findex database, the world's most comprehensive data set on how adults save, borrow, make payments, and manage risk. Drawing on survey data collected in collaboration with Gallup, Inc., the Global Findex database covers more than 140 economies around the world. The initial survey round was followed by a second one in 2014 and by a third in 2017. Compiled using nationally representative surveys of more than 150,000 adults age 15 and above in over 140 economies, The Global Findex Database 2017: Measuring Financial Inclusion and the Fintech Revolution includes updated indicators on access to and use of formal and informal financial services. It has additional data on the use of financial technology (or fintech), including the use of mobile phones and the Internet to conduct financial transactions. The data reveal opportunities to expand access to financial services among people who do not have an account—the unbanked—as well as to promote greater use of digital financial services among those who do have an account. The Global Findex database has become a mainstay of global efforts to promote financial inclusion. In addition to being widely cited by scholars and development practitioners, Global Findex data are used to track progress toward the World Bank goal of Universal Financial Access by 2020 and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The database, the full text of the report, and the underlying country-level data for all figures—along with the questionnaire, the survey methodology, and other relevant materials—are available at www.worldbank.org/globalfindex.

Although Chinese and global demand, low commodity prices and rising wages will continue to challenge trade growth in 2016, Indonesia remains on a positive trajectory. Rising domestic demand, increasing liberalization measures, improvements to the investment climate and a shift towards value-added production will bolster both exports and investment. At the same time, new trade agreements with the world's largest economies look set to drive long-term trade expansion. Prudent government policy, an ambitious reform agenda and rising recognition of the role of the private sector should help to keep investment and trade stable in 2016, and despite exports and growth have dipped in recent years, the country is well positioned to make the crucible transformation from a consumption- to investment-based economy.

In 2018 the Indonesian economy recorded a growth rate of 5.2%, the highest in five years. This was in spite of a slump in the rupiah and a trade imbalance, and took place against a backdrop of rising US interest rates and deteriorating trade relations between the world’s two biggest economies. The country’s emphasis on industrialisation and infrastructure development is laying the foundations for continued economic growth. Moreover, the archipelago’s growing middle class population, geographical position and human capital development agenda, alongside progress in free-trade agreements, make it a strong contender on the global economic stage. The country holds considerable potential for developing entrepreneurial and creative prowess, already being home to four unicorn startups. Investors have continued to look beyond traditional destinations, with emerging cities like Surabaya and Palembang showing strong possibilities for economic growth. Although the outcome of the April 2019 national election will determine the course of further infrastructure development and tax reforms, the future looks promising, with predictions of continued growth accompanied by stable inflation.

Before the turn of the century, few states used immigration detention. Today, nearly every state around the world has adopted immigration detention policy in some form. States practice detention as a means to address both the accelerating numbers of people crossing their borders, and the populations residing in their states without authorisation. This edited volume examines the contemporary diffusion of immigration detention policy throughout the world and the impact of this expansion on the prospects of protection for people seeking asylum. It includes contributions by immigration detention experts working in Australasia, the Americas, Europe, Africa and the Middle East. It is the first to set out a systematic comparison of immigration detention policy across these regions and to examine how immigration detention has become a ubiquitous part of border and immigration control strategies globally. In so doing, the volume presents a global perspective on the diversity of immigration detention policies and practices, how these circumstances developed, and the human impact of states exchanging individuals’ rights to liberty for the collective assurance of border and immigration control. This text will be of key interest to scholars, students and practitioners of immigration, migration, public administration, comparative policy studies, comparative politics and international political economy.

An Investment Framework for Nutrition: Reaching the Global Targets for Stunting, Anemia, Breastfeeding, and Wasting estimates the costs, impacts, and financing scenarios to achieve the World Health Assembly global nutrition targets for stunting, anemia in women, exclusive breastfeeding and the scaling up of the treatment of severe wasting among young children. To reach these four targets, the world needs US$70 billion over 10 years to invest in high-impact nutrition-specific interventions. This investment would have enormous benefits: 65 million cases of stunting and 265 million cases of anemia in women would be prevented in 2025 as compared with the 2015 baseline. In addition, at least 91 million more children would be treated for severe wasting and 105 million additional babies would be exclusively breastfed during the first six months of life over 10 years. Altogether, achieving these targets would avert at least 3.7 million child deaths. Every dollar invested in this package of interventions would yield between US$4 and US$35 in economic returns, making investing in early nutrition one of the best value-for-money development actions. Although some of the targets—especially those for reducing stunting in children and anemia in women—are ambitious and will require concerted efforts in financing, scale-up, and sustained commitment, recent experience from several countries suggests that meeting these targets is feasible. These investments in the critical 1000-day window of early childhood are inalienable and portable and will pay lifelong dividends—not only for children directly affected but also for us all in the form of more robust societies—that will drive future economies.

This report provides guidance on how Indonesia can consolidate gains in access to basic education and develop an education system that will support an economy in transition towards high-income status.

Analytical work on Indonesian macroeconomic and financial issues, with an overarching theme on building institutions and policies for prosperity and inclusive growth. The book begins with a 20-year economic overview by former Finance Minister Chatib Basri, with subsequent chapters covering diverse sectors of the economy as well as Indonesia’s place in the global economy.