The Quality Of Public Finances And Economic Growth

What role can better quality of public finances play in supporting Europe's long-term economic growth prospects? This question was at the centre of the 2008 European Commission workshop on public finances. It was largely motivated by the pressures put on European economies and their budgets from ageing populations and increased globalisation. However, the on-going financial crisis has given the issue an even greater prominence. Current fiscal stimulus packages not only include short-term measures, but also aim to have a lasting impact on growth. The latter is one aspect of ensuring a high quality of public finances. The workshop papers presented and analysed a number of policy options, ranging from the role of growth-enhancing public expenditure, in particular public infrastructure, and more generally the provision of public capital, the role of institutions, tax policy and the interaction of short-term counter-cyclical fiscal policy and long-term economic growth.

This paper presents a simultaneous assessment of the relationship between economic performance and three groups of economic reforms: domestic finance, trade, and the capital account. Among these, domestic financial reforms, and trade reforms, are robustly associated with economic growth, but only in middle-income countries. In contrast, we do not find any systematic positive relationship between capital account liberalization and economic growth. Moreover, the effect of domestic financial reforms on economic growth in middle-income countries is explained by improvements in measured aggregate TFP growth, not by higher aggregate investment. We present evidence that variation in the quality of property rights helps explain the heterogeneity of the effectiveness of financial and trade reforms in developing countries. The evidence suggests that sufficiently developed property rights are a precondition for reaping the benefits of economic reform. Our results are robust to endogeneity bias and a number of alternative specifications.

Improving the quality of public finances has become a key policy challenge for European policy makers. While maintaining sound budget positions remains the linchpin of the European Union's fiscal framework, rising pressures from globalisation and ageing populations are calling to improve also the qualitative aspects of fiscal policy with a view to supporting economic growth. This includes to better target public resources, raise the efficiency of public spending, modernise public finance institutions and budget administration, create supportive fiscal frameworks and establish efficient and growth-enhancing revenue systems. The need for such a comprehensive approach to strengthen public finances is laid out in this collection of papers prepared by the EPC Working Group on the Quality of Public Finances between 2004 and 2007. It also highlights the challenges that come along with policy implementation by drawing on a number of country case studies.

Fiscal policy is an important instrument for maintaining and improving living standards. Such living standards can be viewed as an outcome of the interaction between the opportunities offered by society and the readiness and ability of each person to exploit them. Under certain circumstances, public finance can make an important contribution to the creation of opportunities within a given society by raising resources from the private sector through taxation or borrowing (domestic and external) and allocating those resources effectively and equitably in the form of public spending, including through public goods and transfers. The first chapters in this volume sketch out a framework that policy makers can use in adopting a more cohesive or integrated approach to the short- and long-term dimensions of fiscal policy. Here the traditional threefold rationale for fiscal policy proposed by Musgrave-stabilization, resource allocation, and distribution-continues to be useful. Other chapters in this volume take up some of the critical institutional challenges in implementing fiscal policy for longer-term growth and development. These chapters also look at the tools and approaches being developed to address these challenges. Improving the quality of public investment management is a particular priority in view of the recent evidence that as little as half of all public investment expenditure translates into productive capital stock. The last chapter in this volume is a case study of fiscal responses to the great recession in low-income Sub-Saharan Africa, looking at stabilization and the longer-run growth, as well as distributional aspects of such responses. The growing depth of domestic financial markets in many African countries rather unexpectedly is turning out to be a critical source of financing for fiscal policy responses.

This paper constructs an efficiency-adjusted public capital stock series and re-examines the public capital and growth relationship for 52 developing countries. The results show that public capital is a significant contributor to economic growth. Although the estimated coefficient for the income share of public capital is larger in middle- than in low-income countries, the opposite is true for the marginal product of public capital. The quality of public investment, as measured by variables capturing the adequacy of project selection and implementation, are statistically significant in explaining variations in economic growth, a result mainly driven by low-income countries.

Recent literature has explored the relationship between efficiency-adjusted public capital and economic growth. A debate on whether capital grants, and especially EU funds actually contribute to growth has gained prominence lately. This paper empirically assesses the relationship between the quality of public investment, capital grants, and growth in a sample of 43 emerging and peripheral economies over 1991-2015. To this end, the contribution of public capital to growth is estimated using efficiency-adjusted public capital stock series, constructed reflecting the quality of public investment management institutions. In addition, the determinants of effective public investment are analyzed. The results suggest that capital grants contribute positively to effective public investment, and the latter is significant in explaining variations in economic growth. Finally, the paper illustrates the impact of raising EU funds absorption on potential growth in emerging and peripheral EU countries.