The New Energy Markets Of The Soviet Union And East Europe

This book provides a succinct account of what may happen to the energy sector in the former Soviet Union in the medium- to long-run under alternative scenarios for macroeconomic reform. The analyses reveal the serious damage of the oil resource base caused by the reckless exploitation practices of the past. Production of oil and coal can recover only slowly from the doldrums of the early 1990s, but the potential to expand gas output is very considerable. Energy consumption practices have been extremely wasteful in the past. The total savings potential that could be accomplished as energy prices are allowed to rise, and incentives to economise on energy use are introduced, is huge. The analysis of production, and consumption prospects is disaggregated by major republic. The likely evolution of FSU energy exports until 2005 is also explored, and the impact that changing export flows could have on the international prices of oil, coal and natural gas, is discussed in detail.

Analysis of energy trends, 1960-1982, and their economic implications in the USSR - discusses energy sources, energy production, power supply, power consumption, energy conservation, investment, trade in, and esp. Export of energy, energy policy issues, and the link between foreign policy, the economy and energy. Map, statistical tables.

Energy exports, which are already the primary source of Soviet convertible currency earnings and an important contributor to the budget, could bring in much more revenue if the Soviet Union were to reduce its extremely high levels of energy consumption. To encourage this process, energy prices need to be raised substantially. Under plausible assumptions, it is shown that an increase in prices could yield sizable foreign exchange earnings. Large increases in energy prices could, however, threaten the solvency of industrial enterprises, precipitate major economic and social dislocation, and severely strain interrepublican economic relationships.

The challenges in Russia’s energy sector are changing. On the demand side, Europe is seeking to limit its dependence on Russian oil and gas, with the result that China and other Asian countries are likely to eventually become growing export markets for Russian energy. On the supply side, oil and gas fields in West Siberia are diminishing and in future Russia’s energy will have to come more from East Siberia and the Arctic, which will necessitate new infrastructure development and the employment of advanced technologies, which may increase Russia’s dependence on commercial partners from outside Russia. This book explores the challenges facing Russia’s energy sector and the resulting security implications. It includes a discussion of how far the Russian state is likely to continue to monopolise the energy sector, and how far competition from private and foreign companies might be allowed.

Economic reform, structural adjustment, macroeconomic stabilization, and participation in the world economy are interconnected aspects of the same issue: the long-term economic viability of centrally planned economies in the rapidly changing economic environment of the modern world. Any economic strategy that focuses on only one or two of these aspects at the expense of the others is likely to fail; yet even strategies that build on all of these bases may well fail unless political leaders can muster exceptional skill, garner international support, and enjoy some good luck. The contributions to this volume reflect the recent research on this issue by various specialists on the economies of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. Each author emphasizes macroeconomic stabilization, structural adjustment, participation in the larger world economy, or ecomonic reform.