The Myth Of The Coming Labor Shortage

An examination of the conventional wisdom that the economy will face a labor shortage was done in three stages. First, the demand side of the labor market was analyzed. Changes in the skill requirements of jobs from 1973-86 were examined as were those changes anticipated by projections of the Bureau of Labor Statistics for 2000. The conclusion was that skill requirements would rise in the 1990s due to shifts in the occupational structure, but at a modest rate that was significantly less than that for 1973-86. Second, expected trends in labor supply--the quantity and quality of the future work force--were analyzed. Conclusions were that a general labor shortage would not occur simply because the labor force would grow slowly in the 1990s and the changing demographics of the work force would not necessarily produce a serious shortage of adequately skilled workers. A problem with labor force entrants would probably be that the educational system will not have provided an adequate basis for future technological innovation and productivity growth. Third, the study examined recent and expected trends in wages and incomes to assess whether future trends would remedy the labor market problems. The conclusion was that wages would continue their sluggish growth and possibly fall for large portions of the work force. The key policy implication was that the "supply push" approach would not produce desired improvements in labor market performance or productivity. (Appendixes include a description of the methodology, 28 endnotes, and a 52-item bibliography.) (YLB)

Skilled guest worker programs are being abused by employers, putting many Americans out of work and denying opportunities to millions of others. Even with unemployment at a 30-year high, corporate executives who use foreign workers to suppress wages in the tech industry have found support on Capitol Hill and in the White House. It goes against all sense of fairness, and it is astounding to realize, that Americans are being denied job opportunities while at the same time politicians are calling for the expansion of guest worker programs that will exacerbate this problem.

This paper assesses the claim the the US faces an impending labor shortage due to the impending retirement of baby boomers and slow growth of the US work force, and that the country should orient labor market and educational policies to alleviate this prospective shortage. I find that this analysis is flawed, by making growth of GDP the target of economic policy and by paying inadequate attention to the huge supply of qualified low wage workers in the global economy. My analysis shows that the projections of future demands for skills lack the reliability to guide policies on skill development, and that contrary to the assumption implicit in the shortage analyses, demographic changes have not historically been consistently associated with changes in labor market conditions. I argue that if there is to be a shortage, the country should allow the competitive market to raise labor compensation rather than to adopt policies to keep labor costs low.

The American claim that we should love and be passionate about our job may sound uplifting, or at least, harmless, but Do What You Love exposes the tangible damages such rhetoric has leveled upon contemporary society. Virtue and capital have always been twins in the capitalist, industrialized West. Our ideas of what the “virtues” of pursuing success in capitalism have changed dramatically over time. In the past, we believed that work undertaken with an ethos of industriousness promised financial stability and basic comfort and security for our families. Now, our working life is conflated with the pursuit of pleasure. Fantastically successful—and popular—entrepreneurs such as Steve Jobs and Oprah Winfrey command us. “You’ve got to love what you do,” Jobs tells an audience of college grads about to enter the workforce, while Winfrey exhorts her audience to “live your best life.” The promises made to today’s workers seem so much larger and nobler than those of previous generations. Why settle for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage and a perfectly functional eight-year-old car when you can get rich becoming your “best” self and have a blast along the way? But workers today are doing more and more for less and less. This reality is frighteningly palpable in eroding paychecks and benefits, the rapid concentration of wealth in the hands of a tiny few, and workers’ loss of control over their labor conditions. But where is the protest and anger from workers against a system that tells them to love their work and asks them to do it for less? While winner-take-all capitalism grows ever more ruthless, the rhetoric of passion for labor proliferates. In Do What You Love, Tokumitsu articulates and examines the sacrifices people make for a chance at loveable, self-actualizing, and, of course, wealth-generating work and the conditions facilitated by this pursuit. This book continues the conversation sparked by the author’s earlier Slate article and provides a devastating look at the state of modern America’s labor and workforce.

The dramatic shift in the American labor market away from manufacturing and the growing gap in earnings between high school and college graduates have contributed to a sense of alarm about the capacity of the nation's schools to supply adequately skilled graduates to the work force. The role that schools can or should play in preparing people to enter the world of work is hotly debated. In an effort to nurture the important and ongoing national dialogue on these issues, the Board on Testing and Assessment asked researchers and policymakers to engage in an interdisciplinary review and discussion of available data and implications for assessment policy. Transitions in Work and Learning considers the role of assessment in facilitating improved labor market transitions and life-long learning of American workers. It addresses the apparent mismatch between skill requirements of high-performance workplaces and skills acquired by students in school, the validity of existing assessment technologies to determine skills and competencies of persons entering various occupations, and ethical and legal issues in the implementation of new testing and certification programs. The book also examines the role of assessment in determining needed skills; developing ongoing education and training; and providing information to employers, prospective workers, and schools.