The International Transmission And Effects Of Fiscal Policies

In recent years the world economy has been subject to large and unsyncronized changes in fiscal policies, high and volatile real rates of tnterest, large fluctuations in real exchange rates, and significant variations in private-sector spending. This paper reviews some of the key facts characterizing the effects of fiscal policies during the first half of the 1980s and provides a simple analytical framework suitable for the interpretation of these facts. The analytical framework builds on a two-country model of the world economy which is applied to the analysis of the transmission and effects of various changes in the time profile of taxes and of government spending. Generally, the predictions of the model concerning the relation among the intercountry patterns of consumption, long and short-term real rates of interest, real exchange rates and fiscal policies are consistent with the stylized facts

This volume brings together nine papers from a conference on international macroeconomics sponsored by the NBER in 1985. International economists as well as graduate students in the fields of global monetary economics, finance, and macroeconomics will find this an outstanding contribution to current research. It includes two commentaries for each paper, written by experts in the field, and Frenkel's detailed introduction, which serves as a reader's guide to the arguments made, the models employed, and the issues raised by each contributor. The studies analyze national fiscal policies within the context of the international economic order. Malcolm D. Knight and Paul R. Masson use an empirical model to show that fiscal changes in recent years in the United States, West Germany, and Japan have caused major disturbances in net savings and investment flows. Linda S. Kole uses a two-country simulation model to examine the effects of a large nation's expansion on exchange rates, interest rates, and the balance of payments. In other studies, Warwick J. McKibbin and Jeffrey D. Sachs discuss the influences of different currency regimes on the international transmission of inflation; Kent P. Kimbrough analyzes the interaction between optimal tax policies and international trade; Sweder van Wijnbergen investigates the interrelation of fiscal policies, trade intervention, and world interest rates; and Willem H. Buiter uses an analytical model to look at fiscal interdependence and optimal policy design. David Backus, Michael Devereux, and Douglas Purvis develop a theoretical model to investigate effects of different fiscal policies in an open economy. Alan C. Stockman looks at the influence of policy anticipation in the private sector, while Lawrence H. Summers shows the effects of differential tax policy on international competitiveness.

Are fiscal spillovers today as large as they were during the global financial crisis? How do they depend on economic and policy conditions? This note informs the debate on the cross-border impact of fiscal policy on economic activity, shedding light on the magnitude and the factors affecting transmission, such as the fiscal instruments used, cyclical positions, monetary policy conditions, and exchange rate regimes. The note assesses spillovers from five major advanced economies (France, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) on 55 advanced and emerging market economies that represent 85 percent of global output, looking at government-spending and tax revenue shocks during expansion and consolidation episodes. It finds that fiscal spillovers are economically significant in the presence of slack and/or accommodative monetary policy—and considerably smaller otherwise, which suggests that spillovers are large when domestic multipliers are also large. It also finds that spillovers from government-spending shocks are larger and more persistent than those from tax shocks and that transmission may be stronger among countries with fixed exchange rates. The evidence suggests that although spillovers from fiscal policies in the current environment may not be as large as they were during the crisis, they may still be important under certain economic circumstances.

This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.

This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.

This paper analyses the effects of fiscal policies on rates of interest and wealth in the world economy. Uncertainty concerning the length of life yields an equilibrium in which private and social rates of discount differ and budget deficits exert real effects. It is shown that a current budget deficit(resulting from a tax cut) raises world rates of interest. On the other hand the direction of the effect of an expected future deficit on the short-term rate of interest depends on whether the country is having a surplus or a deficit inits current account of the balance of payments. If it runs a deficit in the current account then the short-term rate of interest rises and vice versa; the future rate of interest, however, must rise. It is also shown that budget deficits raise domestic wealth and lower foreign wealth and thus result in a negative transmission. In the long run, a higher steady-state value of government debt raises the steady-state world rate of interest but its effect on the long-run value of foreign wealth is ambiguous. The effects of changes in government spending depend on both the timing and the patterns of spending. A transitory (balanced-budget) rise in current government spending raises the current rate of interest and lowers domestic and foreign wealth while a transitory future rise in government spending lowers the current rate of interest, lowers domestic wealth and raises foreign wealth. A permanent rise in government spending lowers the rate of interest if the current account of the balance of payments is in deficit, and vice versa. Finally, the model is generalized to a multi-commodity world and the impact of policies are shown to depend on comparison among various spending and saving propensities of private sectors and of governments

Private investment is the principal transmission channel through which fiscal policy affects growth in high-income countries. In low-income countries, governance and also other considerations suggest that the primary channel is factor productivity. Empirical results reported in this paper confirm this expectation: in low-income countries, factor productivity is some four times more effective than investment as a channel for increasing growth through fiscal policy. Although the private investment response to fiscal contraction may be minor, high-deficit, low-income countries can nonetheless benefit from a reduction in unsustainable fiscal deficits because of governance-related factor productivity responses that increase growth.

This paper analyzes the implications of growing international economic integration for the conduct of structural policy. Section I points out that the internationalization of financial intermediation has raised the welfare costs associated with domestic distortions. The growing importance of structural policies in affecting domestic demand in a more integrated world economy is discussed in Section II. It is shown that domestic distortions reduce the effect of expansionary policy on the domestic economy. Section III examines the international transmission of unilateral structural policies. Section IV discusses the need for the international coordination of structural policies. Section V identifies structural areas in which international policy coordination is most urgent.