The Economic Impact Of Climate Change On Kenyan Crop Agriculture

Abstract: This paper measures the economic impact of climate on crops in Kenya. The analysis is based on cross-sectional climate, hydrological, soil, and household level data for a sample of 816 households, and uses a seasonal Ricardian model. Estimated marginal impacts of climate variables suggest that global warming is harmful for agricultural productivity and that changes in temperature are much more important than changes in precipitation. This result is confirmed by the predicted impact of various climate change scenarios on agriculture. The results further confirm that the temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation. The authors analyze farmers' perceptions of climate variations and their adaptation to these, and also constraints on adaptation mechanisms. The results suggest that farmers in Kenya are aware of short-term climate change, that most of them have noticed an increase in temperatures, and that some have taken adaptive measures.

This paper measures the economic impact of climate on crops in Kenya. The analysis is based on cross-sectional climate, hydrological, soil, and household level data for a sample of 816 households, and uses a seasonal Ricardian model. Estimated marginal impacts of climate variables suggest that global warming is harmful for agricultural productivity and that changes in temperature are much more important than changes in precipitation. This result is confirmed by the predicted impact of various climate change scenarios on agriculture. The results further confirm that the temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation. The authors analyze farmers' perceptions of climate variations and their adaptation to these, and also constraints on adaptation mechanisms. The results suggest that farmers in Kenya are aware of short-term climate change, that most of them have noticed an increase in temperatures, and that some have taken adaptive measures.

Substantial model variability exists regarding the likely meteorological impact of climate change on Kenya, particularly with respect to future precipitation levels. Significant regional differences are expected, largely due to Kenya’s diverse climate profile. Overall, temperatures are projected to increase while future precipitation levels are highly uncertain. Climate change is expected to significantly affect coastal areas, including because of sea level rise risks, stronger winds, and an overall warmer and drier climate. This will likely harm important ecosystems, including wetlands, mangroves, and coral reefs. Some models project that arid and semi-arid areas may become drier and hotter, which would exacerbate preexisting water scarcity and agricultural challenges for the already vulnerable communities living there. That said, these projections are not corroborated by all models. The climate change impact on other areas, particularly south and west of Mount Kenya, could generally be positive, as it would provide even better conditions for agriculture. The key climate change risk for Kenya is from extreme events, in particular droughts and floods. The frequency and intensity of such events is likely to increase because of climate change. They also often lead to adverse knock-on effects, such as soil erosion, land degradation, and pest breakouts. Overall, Kenya’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) (2020) estimates that between 2010 and 2020, adverse climate change-related events led to annual socioeconomic losses of 3–5 percent of total gross domestic product (GDP).

Climate change will impact many sectors of the economy: rural agriculture, biodiversity, hydrology, etc. Farmers are particularly affected since agriculture, livestock, fisheries, horticulture and agroforestry depend on specific soil, rainfall and temperature conditions. Mt. Elgon’s ecosystem is well known for its agricultural production hence our choice to study how the implementation of environmental policies affect the livelihoods of local communities.

Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win†? situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.

The report, based on a complex analytical methodology, provides a clear economic rationale for investing in improved water resources development and management in Kenya. It is part of the World Bank's policy dialogue on water resources management reforms and investment planning in Kenya. It focuses on the economic implications of two key factors that make the economy and people of Kenya highly vulnerablethe effects of climate variability and the steady degradation of the nation's water resources. The 1997-2000 El Nio-La Nia episodes cost the country Ksh 290 billion, about 14 percent of GDP.

Climate change is expected to bring new challenges and opportunities for the livelihoods of rural communities in Uganda, where more than 80% of the population depends on rain-fed agriculture. The purpose of this review was to analyze national policies on climate change adaptation, agriculture, forests, management of forested and agroforested landscape ecosystems and their goods and services, and the roles of stakeholders in the national arena. Recognizing the role of forest cover in climate change mitigation and adaptation, this review is based on stakeholder engagement and analysis of published literature on the policy, institutional and socioeconomic drivers of forest cover change around Mount Elgon. The bulk of Uganda’s forests are on land under private ownership and deforestation has occurred mainly in such forests. Several national laws and international conventions ratified by Uganda offer a framework under which forests are managed. Management of protected forests is shared between central and local authorities. Several natural resource policies are likely to have significant unintended impacts that may enable or limit the adaptation of stakeholders and ecosystems to climate change. The current climate change policy, which is an overarching document that addresses climate change in Uganda, suggests that policy responses, either sector specific or crosscutting in nature, be harmonized in order to better address the challenges associated with climate change adaptation and mitigation.