The Crisis In The Ems And The Transition To Emu

When central banks are about to relinquish control over their exchange rate and enter into a currency union, the reptutational costs to devaluation are very low. As with any finite-horizon game, the endpoint affects the earlier expectations of private agents, here causing them to demand higher interest rates and higher wages from countries whose currencies are relatively weak. In looking at the countries within the EMS, we find that Italian long-term interest rates as well as price and wages levels relative to Germany show evidence of growing gaps We also find that the real appreciation of the lira appears to be predominantly due to increases in relative Italian government spending, and not to relatively rapid Italian productivity growth. Taken together, this evidence suggests that convergence within the EMS may have peaked. Furthermore, moving forward the date of currency union may in the short run increase both the growth of the gaps and the need for exchange-rate realignment.

EC monetary integration was reinforced in the 1980s when macroeconomic convergence and a dominant role of the German Bundesbank created the basis for relatively stable exchange rates and increasing EC trade volumes. Reduced capital controls and rising capital mobility as well as German unification caused shifts and shocks which undermined EMS stability in a critical period - the transition to EMU in accord with the Maastricht Treaty which called for further increasing monetary integration. The analysis focuses on these issues, the EMS crisis of 1992/93, the topic of optimum currency areas and the problem of fiscal policies/regional stabilization in Europe, the US and Canada. This book gives an assessment of the EMS developments and shows how financial market liberalization as well as the EC 1992 project affect the process of economic and monetary union.