Terrorism Net Assessment

This report offers a preliminary conception of how to determine the capabilities the United States needs to remain safe from international terrorism. The framework provides an indicative assessment of competing demands for high-priority counterterrorism means, especially considering the prioritization of the Indo-Pacific Command area of responsibility in the emerging national defense strategy that seeks to deter war with great powers.

Building on prior RAND research analyzing the motives, drivers, and capabilities of the principal extremist groups operating in the Philippines, southern Thailand, and Indonesia, this study examined the historical roots of militancy in these countries, the development and perpetuation of extremist ideological frameworks, and national and international government response efforts.

The search for a distinct "terrorist profile" has been going on for many years, and while it is generally agreed that nobody is born a terrorist, there is plenty of disagreement about why a person might become one. Whereas personal and situational push and pull factors can be combined to determine how and why young people become involved in terrorism, preventing an individual from following a path that ends in violence without moral restraint poses an enormous challenge, especially in an open society. This book presents papers from the NATO Advanced Research Workshop titled "A Review of the Utility of Existing Terrorism Risk Assessment Instruments and Policies: Is there the Need for Possible New Approaches?", held in Berlin, Germany, on 29-30 November 2019. Researchers were asked to present papers for discussion sessions with invited participants and practitioners from a number of NATO member and partner countries. Various assessment instruments for identifying problematic individuals at an early stage were presented by experts. It was generally agreed that, due to cultural, religious and other differences, there is no simple way to identify the relatively few high-risk individuals among the larger population of politically radicalized but not necessarily violent individuals who pose no threat. Framed by an Introduction and Conclusion, the 16 chapters in the book are divided into three parts: Theory and Risk/Threat Assessment Instrument Policy Themes; Implementation of Politically Motivated Terrorism Protocols; and Personality Traits/Disorders, Anti-State Terrorism Profiles and the DSM-5 Personality Trait Instrument. This practice-oriented book will be of interest to all those tasked with protecting society from some of its most dangerous members.

This CSIS report states that terrorism is no longer the leading international threat to the United States or its top defense priority, but challenges related to violent extremism remain. The threat from Salafi-jihadist groups such as al Qaeda and the Islamic State has declined, and ethnonationalist threats are largely contained. However, a broader patchwork of violent far-left extremist ideologies has become more prominent on the global stage.

Outlines the essential components of risk assessment and management, which entail the following sequential tasks: Critical infrastructure and key asset inventory; Criticality assessment; Threat assessment; Vulnerability assessment; Risk calculation; and Countermeasure identification. Risk assessment and management concepts and methodologies are evolving rapidly. Here, each component is defined and briefly examined. Protocols are supplied to quantify/calculate criticality, threat, vulnerability, and risk. Experience with risk assessment and management are limited in many law enforcement agencies. To assist in reversing this situation, this report supplies capacity building info. that includes promising programs, software, and training references.

The struggle against Islamist extremism has been dubbed the "Long War" by America's military leadership, but there is no agreed-upon model to forecast the development of this conflict. The challenge of assessing the Long War is exacerbated by the differences between the adversaries: the United States and its allies form the core of the international system, while the Salafist jihadists at the extreme of radical Islam comprise an irregular transnational movement that has adaptively spread throughout the world from its Middle East base. Comparing the structure, goals, strategy, and tactics of these fundamentally asymmetric forces is a chore to which our analytic tools developed during the Cold War do not lend themselves. This National Security Outlook examines whether the "net assessment" concept might serve as an appropriate framework for understanding the Long War and predicting its likely development.

Terrorist organizations use many technologies as they plan and stage attacks. This book explores the purpose and manner of the use of communication and computer technologies, their net effect, and security forces' possible responses. The authors conclude that, instead of developing direct counters to these technologies, exploiting their use and the information they manage to enable more direct security force operations is a more promising option.

Terrorism is a multi dimensional phenomenon and this publication aims at comprehending it. This book has unique characteristics in terms of its focus on different issues; it has a comprehensive focus on the conceptualization of terrorism and understanding of it. It does not only explain the concept, it also addresses the important issues which help us to really understand why and how individuals commit such an act. Issues range from social and psychological analysis of a terrorist behavior to extremist subcultures and globalization. This publication also successfully reviews and analyzes underlying causes of terrorism and what really makes it valuable is that the chapters present the topics with relevant data which is current and up-to-date. Issues such as inequality, globalization, immigration, gender, and democracy are analyzed with research involving comprehensive data analysis. Furthermore, the book has both theoretical discussion and practical experience which makes this study a source book for the academicians and practitioners. It reflects the experience and knowledge of the authors most of whom have both academic and practical experience in the field. The chapters have the analysis based on professional experience and successful academic research.

As the war on terrorism wages on, our nation's policymakers will continue to face the challenge of assessing threats that various terrorist groups pose to the U.S. homeland and our interests abroad. As part of the RAND Corporation's yearlong "Thinking Strategically About Combating Terrorism" project, the authors of this report develop a way to assess and analyze the danger posed by various terrorist organizations around the world. The very nature of terrorism creates a difficulty in predicting new and emerging threats; however, by establishing these types of parameters, the report creates a fresh foundation of threat analysis on which future counterterrorism strategy may build.