Task 4 Improvised Nuclear Device Response Curves
Author | : |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 14 |
Release | : 2016 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download Task 4 Improvised Nuclear Device Response Curves Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
The Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology Directorate (DHS S & T) has tasked Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) under IA HSHQPN-14-X- 00216 Task 4 "Identification of uncertainty drivers in support of Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Statistically-Based Planning Tool". Task 4 was funded with the support of FEMA's Chemical Biological Radiological Nuclear and Explosive (CBRNE) Office Improvised Nuclear Device (IND) Branch who has separately tasked LLNL under IA HSFE50-15-X-0283 to develop a planning resource using a new statistically based approach, called the IND City Planner Resource (iCPR). The S & T funded Task 4 represents the foundation effort in developing this new FEMA resource by providing the funding to support the necessary large number of simulations that will provide the technical basis of the iCPR. Currently, FEMA performs IND analyses for one major United States (US) city at a time using one specific hypothetical IND scenario. The detailed analyses of the single scenario are used to support FEMA's Information Analysis phase of the planning process (FEMA Operational Planning Manual, 2014). While well received and highly valued, the detailed city-specific analyses for the single scenario require significant cost and time, and continuing to perform analyses in this manner for numerous cities across the US is not sustainable. FEMA has therefore identified a new approach to develop a software resource that can provide IND effects in a more time and cost efficient manner for a much larger number of communities. This new approach will provide IND related information and effects for IND related Key Planning Factors (KPF) for 60 major US cities, of which 58 are Tier 1 and Tier 2 Urban Areas Security Initiative (UASI) cities, (Table 1) utilizing a robust, statistically based methodology. Development of the resource leverages past efforts by DHS S & T and FEMA by using the extensive IND analyses that have been completed for 10 major US cities identified in Table 2. However, those are not sufficient to make the correlations needed to develop a robust tool and develop an understanding of correlations between city characteristics (weather, infrastructure, population) and IND effects. Additional analyses need to be performed to determine the uncertainties and response curves to make these correlations. To this end, under Task 4, LLNL performed model simulations and analyses to identify and provide response curves (expressed as two dimensional contours) for radioactive fallout deposition, transport, population, and blast overpressure as a function of yield, weather, location and time. These contours can then be further combined and correlated with infrastructure and population databases to estimate city specific effects on KPFs such as impacted infrastructure and casualty rates.