Sunspot Cycles

A collection of papers edited by four experts in the field, this book sets out to describe the way solar activity is manifested in observations of the solar interior, the photosphere, the chromosphere, the corona and the heliosphere. The 11-year solar activity cycle, more generally known as the sunspot cycle, is a fundamental property of the Sun. This phenomenon is the generation and evolution of magnetic fields in the Sun’s convection zone, the photosphere. It is only by the careful enumeration and description of the phenomena and their variations that one can clarify their interdependences. The sunspot cycle has been tracked back about four centuries, and it has been recognized that to make this data set a really useful tool in understanding how the activity cycle works and how it can be predicted, a very careful and detailed effort is needed to generate sunspot numbers. This book deals with this topic, together with several others that present related phenomena that all indicate the physical processes that take place in the Sun and its exterior environment. The reviews in the book also present the latest theoretical and modelling studies that attempt to explain the activity cycle. It remains true, as has been shown in the unexpected characteristics of the first two solar cycles in the 21st century, that predictability remains a serious challenge. Nevertheless, the highly expert and detailed reviews in this book, using the very best solar observations from both ground- and space based telescopes, provide the best possible report on what is known and what is yet to be discovered. Originally published in Space Science Reviews, Vol 186, Issues 1-4, 2014.

The cycle of day and night and the cycle of seasons are two familiar natural cycles around which many human activities are organized. But is there a third natural cycle of importance for us humans? On 13 March 1989, six million people in Canada went without electricity for many hours: a large explosion on the sun was discovered as the cause of this blackout. Such explosions occur above sunspots, dark features on the surface of the Sun that have been observed through telescopes since the time of Galileo. The number of sunspots has been found to wax and wane over a period of 11 years. Although this cycle was discovered less than two centuries ago, it is becoming increasingly important for us as human society becomes more dependent on technology. For nearly a century after its discovery, the cause of the sunspot cycle remained completely shrouded in mystery. The 1908 discovery of strong magnetic fields in sunspots made it clear that the 11-year cycle is the magnetic cycle of the sun. It is only during the last few decades that major developments in plasma physics have at last given us the clue to the origins of the cycle and how the large explosions affecting the earth arise. Nature's Third Cycle discusses the fascinating science behind the sunspot cycle, and gives an insider's perspective of this cutting-edge scientific research from one of the leaders of the field.

Sunspot numbers in the current solar cycle 23 were estimated by using a statistical model with the accumulating cycle sunspot data based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles from 1 to 22. Since cycle 23 has progressed and the accurate solar minimum occurence has been defined, the statistical model is validated by comparing the previous prediction with the new measured sunspot number; the improved sunspot projection in short range of future time is made accordingly. The current cycle is expected to have a moderate level of activity. Errors of this model are shown to be self-correcting as cycle observations become available.