Structural Reforms And The Potential Effects On The Italian Economy

Since the second half of 2011, after a period of prolonged low growth, Italy has found itself at the center of a severe economic crisis. Concerns about the sustainability of its debt burden, along with gloomy growth prospects, have pushed up the cost of government borrowing, exacerbating current economic conditions. At the moment Italy is facing two mounting economic challenges: (i) achieve a rapid fiscal consolidation to restore financial market confidence; (ii) implement structural reforms to strengthen medium-term growth prospects. Using the European Commission's model QUEST III with R&D, adapted to Italy, we quantify the potential effects of a set of interventions inspired to the reform packages currently being undertaken or under discussion and consider different levels of policy effort. Results show that reforms are likely to bring about sizable gains in output, consumption, employment and net foreign assets position and that most of these gains derive from labor market reforms. However, the fiscal austerity plan is likely to severely mitigate the positive effects of the interventions, especially during the earlier phases of the reform process. Most of these losses accrue to liquidity-constraint households who would experience a drop in consumption.

This Selected Issues Paper focuses on structural reforms and fiscal devaluation in Italy. Italy’s economy has a number of important strengths. Despite these strengths, Italy’s economic performance has lagged behind its peers. The authorities’ reform plans are under way in different sectors of the country. In most cases, if reforms go in the right direction, their impact would depend on consistent and prompt implementation. The model-based analysis also suggests that the potential gains to the economy from deeper reforms can be sizable.

This innovative volume will be an excellent resource for political scientists specialized in political economy and industrial relations, labour economists and sociologists as well as policy practitioners and corporate governance specialists. Moreover,

This paper examines the role of removing obstacles to competition in product markets in raising growth and productivity. Using firm-level data from Italy during 2003–13 and OECD measures of product market regulation, we estimate the effect of deregulation in network sectors on value added and productivity of firms in these sectors, as well as firms using these intermediates in their production processes. We find evidence of a significant positive impact. These effects are more pronounced in Italian provinces with more efficient public administration, underscoring the complementarities of advancing public administration and product market reforms simultaneously.

Our economies face constant challenges from many different directions. Structural reforms are implemented every day, either to grasp the benefits of globalization and technological change, or to avoid foundering on unaffordable welfare systems or the rise of new economies.Despite this flurry of reforms, many of their effects are insufficiently understood. What makes reforms a success or a failure? Why do we witness systematically ambivalent attitudes to reforms? Can governments implement reforms differently, without inflicting prejudice to large fringes of the population?This book explores these issues by comparing a number of reforms, across a large set of countries and sectors. First, through an innovative multisectorial input-output analysis, the authors compare the effects of liberalisation reforms in the telecommunication and electricity sectors across Europe. Surprisingly, they find that very similar and well-intended reforms can generate highly contrasted outcomes. It is also shown that governments must consider the effects of each reform on all sectorsof the economy. Second, the authors explore how governments can tailor their reform strategy to alter the redistributive effects of reforms. They show that the government's approach to reforms has been very different across time and across countries. A government's approach depends on localinstitutions, on the nature of the opposition, and on the scope of the reform under way. The authors, however, show that governments do have alternatives. Often, there are ways to tailor reforms so as to protect specific parts of the population; and there are ways to experiment gradually, to avoid costly policy mistakes.

Recoge: Revisión de la economía italiana con la intención de identificar presentes o potenciales desequilibrios y los posibles riesgos macroeconómicos que pueden implicar.

The reform of the Italian public administration has been a priority for at least two decades, with several major initiatives undertaken toward modernization and simplification. Notwithstanding laudable intentions, however, progress remains limited. This analysis is a case study of two reforms since 2016—on the rationalization of state-owned enterprises and of public procurement. It finds that original reform provisions were weakened or overturned, regulatory complexity and uncertainties in the application of the reforms blunted their impact, and enforcement mechanisms were inadequate. Addressing these gaps will be essential for successfully modernizing Italy’s public administration.

Italy’s deep-rooted structural problems resulted in an unsatisfactory productivity performance and a dismal growth over the last 15 years. The global financial crisis has exacerbated these long-standing weaknesses, taking a heavy toll on Italy’s economy. With output back to its end-2001 level, Italy’s output losses associated with the crisis have been, thus far, about 132 billion of 2000 euro (around 10 percent of precrisis 1998 - 2004 real GDP). About three quarters of these losses are estimated to be due to a shortfall in potential output. Potential output is not expected to rebound to its precrisis trend over the medium term, even though growth is projected to do so within the next two years. In the short-run, the decline in output is mainly accounted for by a collapse in productivity; in the medium term, employment and capital are also likely to be affected, with implications for the longer-term growth and fiscal outlook.