Space Weather Prediction Challenges And Prospects

Machine Learning Techniques for Space Weather provides a thorough and accessible presentation of machine learning techniques that can be employed by space weather professionals. Additionally, it presents an overview of real-world applications in space science to the machine learning community, offering a bridge between the fields. As this volume demonstrates, real advances in space weather can be gained using nontraditional approaches that take into account nonlinear and complex dynamics, including information theory, nonlinear auto-regression models, neural networks and clustering algorithms. Offering practical techniques for translating the huge amount of information hidden in data into useful knowledge that allows for better prediction, this book is a unique and important resource for space physicists, space weather professionals and computer scientists in related fields. Collects many representative non-traditional approaches to space weather into a single volume Covers, in an accessible way, the mathematical background that is not often explained in detail for space scientists Includes free software in the form of simple MATLAB® scripts that allow for replication of results in the book, also familiarizing readers with algorithms

This updated introductory textbook, with added learning features, explains how the Sun influences the Earth and its near-space environment.

In this study, the committee explores ways the National Weather Service (NWS) can take advantage of continuing advances in science and technology to meet the challenges of the future. The predictions are focused on the target year 2025. Because specific predictions about the state of science and technology or the NWS more than 25 years in the future will not be entirely accurate, the goal of this report is to identify and highlight trends that are most likely to influence change. The Panel on the Road Map for the Future National Weather Service developed an optimistic vision for 2025 based on advances in science and technology.

Extreme Events in Geospace: Origins, Predictability, and Consequences helps deepen the understanding, description, and forecasting of the complex and inter-related phenomena of extreme space weather events. Composed of chapters written by representatives from many different institutions and fields of space research, the book offers discussions ranging from definitions and historical knowledge to operational issues and methods of analysis. Given that extremes in ionizing radiation, ionospheric irregularities, and geomagnetically induced currents may have the potential to disrupt our technologies or pose danger to human health, it is increasingly important to synthesize the information available on not only those consequences but also the origins and predictability of such events. Extreme Events in Geospace: Origins, Predictability, and Consequences is a valuable source for providing the latest research for geophysicists and space weather scientists, as well as industries impacted by space weather events, including GNSS satellites and radio communication, power grids, aviation, and human spaceflight. The list of first/second authors includes M. Hapgood, N. Gopalswamy, K.D. Leka, G. Barnes, Yu. Yermolaev, P. Riley, S. Sharma, G. Lakhina, B. Tsurutani, C. Ngwira, A. Pulkkinen, J. Love, P. Bedrosian, N. Buzulukova, M. Sitnov, W. Denig, M. Panasyuk, R. Hajra, D. Ferguson, S. Lai, L. Narici, K. Tobiska, G. Gapirov, A. Mannucci, T. Fuller-Rowell, X. Yue, G. Crowley, R. Redmon, V. Airapetian, D. Boteler, M. MacAlester, S. Worman, D. Neudegg, and M. Ishii. Helps to define extremes in space weather and describes existing methods of analysis Discusses current scientific understanding of these events and outlines future challenges Considers the ways in which space weather may affect daily life Demonstrates deep connections between astrophysics, heliophysics, and space weather applications, including a discussion of extreme space weather events from the past Examines national and space policy issues concerning space weather in Australia, Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States

As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.

The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages

Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction is a comprehensive work on the most current understandings of uncertainties and predictability in numerical simulations of the atmosphere. It provides general knowledge on all aspects of uncertainties in the weather prediction models in a single, easy to use reference. The book illustrates particular uncertainties in observations and data assimilation, as well as the errors associated with numerical integration methods. Stochastic methods in parameterization of subgrid processes are also assessed, as are uncertainties associated with surface-atmosphere exchange, orographic flows and processes in the atmospheric boundary layer. Through a better understanding of the uncertainties to watch for, readers will be able to produce more precise and accurate forecasts. This is an essential work for anyone who wants to improve the accuracy of weather and climate forecasting and interested parties developing tools to enhance the quality of such forecasts. Provides a comprehensive overview of the state of numerical weather prediction at spatial scales, from hundreds of meters, to thousands of kilometers Focuses on short-term 1-15 day atmospheric predictions, with some coverage appropriate for longer-term forecasts Includes references to climate prediction models to allow applications of these techniques for climate simulations

Ring Current Investigations offers a comprehensive description of ring current dynamics in the Earth’s magnetosphere as part of the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere system. In order to help researchers develop a deeper understanding of the fundamental physics of geomagnetic storms, it includes a detailed description of energetic charged particles injection, trapping, and loss. It reviews historical and recent advances in observations, measurements, theory and simulations of the inner magnetosphere and its coupling to the ionosphere and other surrounding plasma populations. In addition, it compares the physics of ring currents at other strongly magnetized planets in the solar system, specifically Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune, with the ring current system at Earth. Providing a description of the most important space weather effects driven by inner magnetospheric energetic particles during geomagnetic storms and present capabilities for their nowcast and forecast, Ring Current Investigations is an important reference for researchers in geophysics and space science, especially related to plasma physics, the ionosphere and magnetosphere, solar-terrestrial relations, and spacecraft anomalies. Includes an appendix with links to downloadable video clips, illustrating features of ring current and geomagnetic storm dynamics Provides overview of existing state-of-the-art numerical models and links for open-source code downloads Offers guidance on how to develop numerical models within the context of the present-day understanding

Examines the emerging physical science of space weather and the impact the sun and solar storms have on Earth life.