Risk Management And Business Strategy Macro Economic Factors Predictive Of The Consumer Credit Card Charge Off Rate

United States (U.S.) credit card issuers attest to the fact that the economy has some underlying impact on credit card charge-off rates. Understanding this economic impact can lead to decisions that are more effective by credit card issuers regarding risk mitigation and business strategy. However, the challenge is identifying which economic indicators, covering all aspects of the economy, have an influence on consumer credit card charge-off rates. With the use of time-series regression, this paper presents a model that identifies economic variables that have a significant relationship with the consumer credit card charge-off rate. Data from the first quarter of 1990 to the fourth quarter of 2009 became the focus when modeling the consumer credit card charge-off rate. The expansion of a baseline model, consisting of indicators found through research, occurs with the addition of new economic variables. The expanded econometric model found six economic variables to have a significant relationship with the consumer credit card charge-off rate. These variables cover four major aspects of the economy: consumption, production, financial, and housing. To understand how the economy influences the credit card business, card issuers should evaluate all aspects of the economic system that measure the country's economic activity. Although some variables showed varying levels of significance in favorable and unfavorable economic periods, the overall model was a good fit. Credit card companies can use this new information to understand the economic impact and make effective decisions, specifically regarding the mitigation of future credit losses and the development of new business strategies.

Consumer credit has become a topical issue for researchers, regulators and the banking industry in Europe as a result of increasing market integration, regulatory changes and a growing tendency of households to use debt to finance consumption. This study uses a cross-country approach to look at a broad range of issues related to consumer credit in Europe. Focusing on both the supply and demand sides, it takes into account the structure and performance of financial intermediaries, the socio-demographic and economic profile of households and their risk of over-indebtedness, as well as the regulatory framework, such as the new Consumer Credit Directive. In the light of this analysis, measures for the prevention and management of over-indebtedness are presented. This book is essential for postgraduate students and specialists in financial institutions, for regulators and policy-makers who are in charge of efficiency and stability of financial systems.

As both the twenty-first century and the new millennium opened and the old eras passed into history, individuals and organizations throughout the world advanced their listings of the most significant people and events in their respective specialties. Possibly more important, the tum of the clock and calendar also offered these same observers a good reason to glance into the crystal ball. Presumably, the past is of greatest interest to most people when it permits better understanding of the present, and maybe even limited insight into the outlook. In keeping with the reflective mood of the time, the staff and friends of the Credit Research Center (CRC) at Georgetown University's McDonough School of Business noted that the beginning of the new millennium also marked the beginning of the second quarter-century of the Center's existence. The Center began at the Krannert Graduate School of Management at Purdue University in 1974 and moved to the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University in 1997. The silver anniversary of its founding offered the occasion for creating more than another listing of significant past accomplishments and milestones. Rather, it offered the opportunity and, indeed, a mandate for CRC as an academic research center, to undertake a retrospective and future look into the status of research questions pertaining to consumer credit markets. For this reason, the Center organized a research conference which was held in Washington, D. C.

Using account level credit-card data from six major commercial banks from January 2009 to December 2013, we apply machine-learning techniques to combined consumer-tradeline, credit-bureau, and macroeconomic variables to predict delinquency. In addition to providing accurate measures of loss probabilities and credit risk, our models can also be used to analyze and compare risk management practices and the drivers of delinquency across the banks. We find substantial heterogeneity in risk factors, sensitivities, and predictability of delinquency across banks, implying that no single model applies to all six institutions. We measure the efficacy of a bank's risk-management process by the percentage of delinquent accounts that a bank manages effectively, and find that efficacy also varies widely across institutions. These results suggest the need for a more customized approached to the supervision and regulation of financial institutions, in which capital ratios, loss reserves, and other parameters are specified individually for each institution according to its credit-risk model exposures and forecasts.

Credit Card Nation is the first comprehensive look at an ongoing social and economic crisis-America's escalting dependence on credit. By locating consumer debt within the context of corporate and governmental debt.

In this survey, we review the quantitative macroeconomic literature analyzing consumer debt and default. We start by providing an overview of consumer bankruptcy law in the US and document the relevant institutional changes over time. We proceed with a comprehensive empirical section, describing key facts about consumer debt, defaults and delinquencies, as well as charge-off and interest rates for the United States. In addition to the evolution of these variables over time, we construct life-cycle profiles using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances and show that debt and defaults display a clear hump-shaped profile by age. Third, we show how credit card debt has evolved along the income distribution. Finally, we document a large amount of heterogeneity in credit card interest rates across consumers. In the second part of the survey, we describe what has by now become the workhorse model of consumer credit and default. We discuss a quantitative version of the model and use it to decompose the main reasons for default. We also use the model to illustrate how the details of default costs matter. The remainder of the survey then discusses the literature centered around two questions. First, what are the welfare implications of various bankruptcy laws? And second, what caused the rise in filings over time? We end with a discussion of open questions and fruitful avenues for future research.

Using account level credit-card data from six major commercial banks from January 2009 to December 2013, we apply machine-learning techniques to combined consumer-tradeline, credit-bureau, and macroeconomic variables to predict delinquency. In addition to providing accurate measures of loss probabilities and credit risk, our models can also be used to analyze and compare risk management practices and the drivers of delinquency across the banks. We find substantial heterogeneity in risk factors, sensitivities, and predictability of delinquency across banks, implying that no single model applies to all six institutions. We measure the efficacy of a bank's risk-management process by the percentage of delinquent accounts that a bank manages effectively, and find that efficacy also varies widely across institutions. These results suggest the need for a more customized approached to the supervision and regulation of financial institutions, in which capital ratios, loss reserves, and other parameters are specified individually for each institution according to its credit-risk model exposures and forecasts.

In this paper, we examine how county unemployment rates affect consumers' delinquency and bankruptcy behavior by focusing on the credit card market. In particular, after controlling for credit supply and shocks like divorce and health coverage we investigate whether consumer propensity for delinquency and bankruptcy changes with respect to the macro economic fluctuations across counties. Our results show that county unemployment rates significantly influence delinquency.

Consumer credit has become a topical issue for researchers, regulators and the banking industry in Europe as a result of increasing market integration, regulatory changes and a growing tendency of households to use debt to finance consumption. This study uses a cross-country approach to look at a broad range of issues related to consumer credit in Europe. Focusing on both the supply and demand sides, it takes into account the structure and performance of financial intermediaries, the socio-demographic and economic profile of households and their risk of over-indebtedness, as well as the regulatory framework, such as the new Consumer Credit Directive. In the light of this analysis, measures for the prevention and management of over-indebtedness are presented. This book is essential for postgraduate students and specialists in financial institutions, for regulators and policy-makers who are in charge of efficiency and stability of financial systems.

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, published by the U.S. Government and the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in early 2011, is the official government report on the United States financial collapse and the review of major financial institutions that bankrupted and failed, or would have without help from the government. The commission and the report were implemented after Congress passed an act in 2009 to review and prevent fraudulent activity. The report details, among other things, the periods before, during, and after the crisis, what led up to it, and analyses of subprime mortgage lending, credit expansion and banking policies, the collapse of companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the federal bailouts of Lehman and AIG. It also discusses the aftermath of the fallout and our current state. This report should be of interest to anyone concerned about the financial situation in the U.S. and around the world.THE FINANCIAL CRISIS INQUIRY COMMISSION is an independent, bi-partisan, government-appointed panel of 10 people that was created to "examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States." It was established as part of the Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009. The commission consisted of private citizens with expertise in economics and finance, banking, housing, market regulation, and consumer protection. They examined and reported on "the collapse of major financial institutions that failed or would have failed if not for exceptional assistance from the government."News Dissector DANNY SCHECHTER is a journalist, blogger and filmmaker. He has been reporting on economic crises since the 1980's when he was with ABC News. His film In Debt We Trust warned of the economic meltdown in 2006. He has since written three books on the subject including Plunder: Investigating Our Economic Calamity (Cosimo Books, 2008), and The Crime Of Our Time: Why Wall Street Is Not Too Big to Jail (Disinfo Books, 2011), a companion to his latest film Plunder The Crime Of Our Time. He can be reached online at www.newsdissector.com.