Revival A Disequilibrium Macroeconometric Model For The Indian Economy 2003

This book presents a new approach to incorporating regional details on production in a disequilibrium macroeconometric model. The early studies on disequilibrium dealt with either partial-adjustment models or models involving excess demand or supplies in markets. This study delves further, by considering a different type of disequilibrium model - one in which econometric analysis makes use of the varying coefficients stochastic production frontier approach, which permits estimation and analysis of production efficiencies of individual producers. The diverse regional agricultural production conditions in India provide an appropriate basis for application of the methodology developed in this study by providing a perspective on regional implications of selected policy measures impacting on agriculture, either directly or indirectly.

This title was first published in 2003. This text presents a new approach to incorporating regional details on production in a disequilibrium macroeconometric model. The early studies on disequilibrium dealt with either partial-adjustment models or models involving excess demand or supplies in markets. In this study the authors consider a different type of disequilibrium model - one in which econometric analysis makes use of the varying coefficients stochastic production frontier approach, which permits estimation and analysis of production efficiencies of individual producers. The book also presents an innovative approach to production modelling in macro econometric models as it provides a useful framework for incorporating production efficiencies and regional details of production in the macro models. It is a pioneering study that combines the stochastic frontier approach with macro econometric modelling. Primarily focused on India, it also provides insights into problems in modelling economies of other developing countries.

The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.

Does leadership affect economic growth and development? Is leadership an exogenous determinant or an endogenous outcome of growth and development processes? Can we differentiate between the two? Do leaders decisions and actions vary in importance over various stages in the process, at least in successful cases? How important is choosing the right economic model? To what extent does leadership affect the explicit or implicit time horizons of policy choices? Is leadership an important determinant of inclusiveness in growth? In what ways do leaders build consensus or institutions to allow time for the economic plan to work? What challenges does economic success generate? How do successful leaders adapt to new problems such as income inequality and a rising middle class? Does the creation of new institutions play any role in solving these problems? Why do leaders often choose second best political economic compromises in economic development? This book has been prepared for the Commission on Growth and Development to evaluate the state of knowledge on the relationship between leadership and economic growth. It does not pretend to provide all the answers, but does review the evidence, identify insights and offers examples of leaders making decisions and acting in ways that enhance economic growth. It examines a variety of topics including leaders roles in: promoting national unity, building good solid institutions, choosing innovative and localized policies, and creating political consensus for long run policy implementation. Written by prominent academics and actual policy makers, Leadership and Growth seeks to create a better understanding of the role of leadership in growth and to encourage further studies of the role of leadership in economic growth.

By comparing countries like Venezuela and Chile, China and India, Dominican Republic and Haiti, and others, the book tries to answer the questions of which institutions and policies are crucial for stable long term economic growth.

This collection presents the difficult challenges of the new economic era as well as a set of alternative economic policies for managing the open Latin American economies of the early twenty-first century. Ideas that were removed from the reform agenda over the past two decades are seen as critical to the improved economic and social performance that liberalization has so far failed to produce. These ideas include a role for counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies, including restrictions on capital mobility; active productive sector and technological development policies; and the need to pay greater attention not only to social policies, but also to the links between economic policies and social outcomes, in order to guarantee a desirable social performance. This collection sheds new light on issues that were largely overlooked during the reform period, and that must be faced squarely to overcome the deficiencies that Latin America has faced during its phase of liberalization and its dismal economic performance since the Asian crisis.

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

This book retraces the history of macroeconomics from Keynes's General Theory to the present. Central to it is the contrast between a Keynesian era and a Lucasian - or dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) - era, each ruled by distinct methodological standards. In the Keynesian era, the book studies the following theories: Keynesian macroeconomics, monetarism, disequilibrium macro (Patinkin, Leijongufvud, and Clower) non-Walrasian equilibrium models, and first-generation new Keynesian models. Three stages are identified in the DSGE era: new classical macro (Lucas), RBC modelling, and second-generation new Keynesian modeling. The book also examines a few selected works aimed at presenting alternatives to Lucasian macro. While not eschewing analytical content, Michel De Vroey focuses on substantive assessments, and the models studied are presented in a pedagogical and vivid yet critical way.

This book helps connect the dots between economic theory, the role of capabilities, the lessons from history and the practical challenges of design and implementation of industrial policies. In so doing it provides an excellent policy roadmap for anyone interested in the challenge of promoting catch-up growth and productive transformation.