Republic Of Uzbekistan 2022 Article Iv Consultation Press Release Staff Report And Statement By The Executive Director For The Republic Of Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan embarked on an ambitious reform path in 2017, starting to liberalize its economy after years of state control. Incomes are still relatively low compared to other emerging economies and the role of the state is still large. Uzbekistan weathered the pandemic relatively well. Strong fundamentals, ample policy buffers, and high gold prices allowed the authorities to take strong actions to mitigate the impact of the pandemic and growth accelerated to 7.4 percent in 2021.

Addressing barriers to private-sector development has been a long-standing ambition of the government of Uzbekistan, with an extensive programme of reforms that began in 2017 redoubling efforts to foster the growth of a more competitive and productive population of private-sector firms. Uzbekistan needs a more dynamic and innovative private sector if it is to meet the challenges and seize the opportunities of the green and digital transitions, which create a new impetus for accelerating these reforms.

This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Uzbekistan’s external position remains strong. External shocks, which began in 2014, lowered exports, commodity prices, and remittances and contributed to a decline in growth from about 8 percent to 5 percent in 2017. Growth of domestic employment remained below one percent. A loosening of fiscal and monetary policies, along with price and foreign exchange liberalization, caused inflation to pick up in late 2017 and was close to 20 percent in early 2018. International reserves were equivalent to 19 months of imports of goods and services at end-2017 and debt is low. GDP is projected to expand by about 5 percent in 2018–19, but domestic job creation will continue to lag.

Activity returned to its pre-COVID level in 2021. Inflation remains well above the NBK’s 4–6 percent target band, and spillovers from sanctions on Russia will exacerbate price pressures and weaken economic growth in 2022. Kazakhstan benefits from strong fiscal and external buffers but risks to the outlook are elevated due to the uncertain impact on Kazakhstan of the sanctions on Russia and heightened domestic tensions since the January social unrest episode. In the medium term, non-oil growth under the baseline is expected to converge to about 4 percent. Sustainable growth will require greater economic diversification. Climate-related challenges are acute for Kazakhstan given its outsized hydrocarbon sector, high per-capita greenhouse gas emissions, and low domestic energy prices.

Strong growth continued in 2022 with minimal disruption from the war in Ukraine, while strong financial inflows supported domestic demand and liquidity. Although negative spillovers from the war have not materialized, it remains unclear to what extent Tajikistan will continue to be relatively unaffected by weaker economic activity in Russia.

The economy is recovering from a historic downturn thanks to policy support, rebounding oil prices and international financial assistance. Benefiting from the authorities’ pro-active approach, COVID-19 infection rates and fatalities have been contained. With higher oil prices and the country entering into the 2023 Presidential election cycle, there are risks of delays in much needed fiscal and exchange rate reforms. Macroeconomic and structural policies should build confidence and ensure a robust exit from the crisis.

Mali has been hit by several large shocks in the past three years, including two coups d’état, the COVID-19 pandemic, acute security challenges and a cost-of-living crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A strict embargo in the first half of 2022 by regional partners restricted the government and private sector’s international economic transactions. Despite that embargo, GDP growth was estimated to be 3.7 percent in 2022. Inflation peaked at almost 15 percent in mid-2022—resulting in an increase in extreme poverty and heightened food insecurity—but has since decelerated, with inflation in March 2023 at 7.5 percent. The BCEAO regional central bank raised its policy rate to 3 percent in February 2023, a 100-basis point cumulative increase since June 2022.