Regional Multilateral And Unilateral Trade Policies Of Mercosur For Growth And Poverty Reduction In Brazil

This paper determines the impacts of the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA) for Brazil under alternative assumptions concerning the returns to scale and the nature of competition in several industries, emphasizing the effects on the agribusiness activities. The GTAPinGAMS applied general equilibrium model is used to run the simulations. The results suggest different changes in output, imports, exports, and prices under alternative assumptions about market structure. The FTAA allows the exploitation of economies of scale and reduction of markups in almost all industries, with evidences of rationalizing and pro-competitive effects occurring in the industries under imperfect competition. The welfare gains from the FTAA are larger in the model with market imperfections. If the FTAA excludes products from the agribusiness sectors, the Brazilian agricultural industries will exploit less the economies of scale.

Harrison, Rutherford, Tarr, and Gurgel estimate that the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA), the EU-MERCOSUR agreement, and multilateral trade policy changes will all be beneficial for Brazil. The Brazilian government strategy of simultaneously negotiating the FTAA and the EU-MERCOSUR agreement, while supporting multilateral liberalization through the Doha Agenda, will increase the benefits of each of these policies.The authors estimate that the poorest households typically gain roughly three to four times the average for Brazil from any of the policies considerethe United States protects its most highly protected markets. Both the FTAA and the EU-MERCOSUR agreements are net trade-creating for the countries involved, but excluded countries almost always lose from the agreements. The authors estimate that multilateral trade liberalization of 50 percent in tariffs and export subsidies results in gains to the world more than four times greater than either the FTAA or the EU-MERCOSUR agreement. This shows the continued importance to the world trading community of the multilateral negotiations.This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to assess the impact of trade liberalization on poverty.

A multiregion computable general equilibrium model is used to evaluate the regional, multilateral, and unilateral trade policy options of Mercosur from the perspective of the welfare of all potential partners in several proposed agreements. The focus for Brazil is on poverty impacts. The results show that the poorest households in Brazil experience gains of 1.5-5.5 percent of their consumption, which are about three to four times the average gains for Brazil. Protection in Brazil favors capital-intensive manufacturing relative to unskilled labor-intensive agriculture and manufacturing. So trade liberalization raises the return to unskilled labor relative to capital and disproportionately helps the poor.

Over the medium time horizon, skill upgrading, differentials in sectoral technological progress, and migration of labor out of farming activities are some of the major structural adjustment factors shaping the evolution of an economy and its connected poverty trends. The main focus of the authors is understanding, for the case of Brazil, how a trade shock interacts with these structural forces and ascertaining whether it enhances or hinders medium-term poverty reduction. In particular, they consider the interactions between the migration of labor out of agriculture, a potentially important poverty reduction factor, and trade liberalization, which increases the price incentives to stay in agriculture. A recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model simulates Doha scenarios and compares them against a business as usual scenario. The authors estimate the poverty effects using a microsimulation model that primarily takes into account individuals' labor supply decisions. Their analysis shows that trade liberalization does contribute to structural poverty reduction. But unless increased productivity and stronger growth rates are attributed to trade reform, its contribution to medium-term poverty reduction is rather small.

Poverty reduction is deemed to be a centerpiece of the Doha Development Agenda currently being negotiated under the auspices of the WTO. Yet there is considerable debate about the poverty impacts of such an agreement. Some are convinced it will increase poverty, while others are equally convinced that it will lead to poverty reduction. This book brings the best scientific methods to bear on this question, taking into account the specific characteristics embodied in the Doha Development Agenda.

By looking at the link between trade liberalization and pro-poor growth in Nepal, this book explores how a developing and transition economy can attain higher and pro-poor growth along with the ongoing trend of globalization. The author develops a social accounting database for Nepal and applies it to quantify computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to investigate the trade-offs between growth and distribution that are associated with opening up the economy and deregulating it. The book presents a number of pragmatic scenarios that bring about the desired pro-poor growth effects in order to demonstrate possible outcomes for policy making. The research findings apply to other economies with similar macroeconomic structure to Nepal; those small economies with a dominant, traditional, and stagnant agriculture; fragile industrial base, weak and volatile external sector, and almost half of the population living below the poverty line. This book will be of considerable interest to students and scholars in the areas of development economics, political economy of policy reforms, and trade and poverty with special emphasis on South Asia.

This book gauges possible development implications of current WTO trade negotiations by examining various proposals and assessing their likely economic impact. The experiences of a number of countries at different levels of development and across various regions are examined to ascertain the impact of their trade reforms.