Regional Economics Forecasting

Regional economic models are the key to predicting the effects of transportation, economic development, energy, fiscal and environmental policies. Despite this, the principal regional economic policy analysis model used throughout the United States by government agencies, universities, and the private sector has not been presented in a book until now. The approach to building, understanding and using regional models presented in Regional Economic Models: A Systematic Approach to Forecasting and Policy Analysis is progressive. It begins with the simplest possible models and concludes with a full presentation of the leading model used by policy makers today. The full details are presented along with facilitating software, which is made available so that the reader can build a prototype model for any state or country and can perform policy simulations with full operational models for a sample area. Policy studies are discussed that have been carried out with the model, as well as the range of ways in which policies can be tested through policy simulations. The necessary background is developed for understanding the ways in which models can be used to improve the basis upon which policies are evaluated, as well as the sensitivity of the predicted effects to the model chosen for the analysis. The presentation is multifaceted and includes equations, diagrams and numerical examples. The professional literature is integrated with introductory materials to produce the first comprehensive book on regional modeling that extends from economic base models to modeling advances that are currently being published in economic journals.

This textbook offers an introduction to empirical regional economics, including a comprehensive and systematic overview of the fundamentals, history, development, and applications of economic base models. It not only provides a sound basis for regional economics and regional economic analysis, but it also includes numerous applications of the underlying theory. The book has an empirical orientation, highlighting the value of observation and testing in order to explain regional economic behavior. Theory plays an important role in this study, but it is only a starting point. The book is divided into three parts: the first discusses the economic base theory of regional growth and the empirical evidence supporting it, while the second part covers the specification and application of four increasingly complex regional economic models: the economic base model, the input-output model, the interindustry econometric model, and the structural time-series model. Lastly, the third part presents forty-eight regional economic case studies organized under seven headings, including economic cycles, economic policy, and regional forecasting. Given its scope, the book appeals to upper-undergraduate and graduate students majoring in economics, economic geography, and business, as well as to anyone in the private or public sector interested in gaining a better understanding of practical methods of regional economic forecasting and analysis. For additional course material, please check the author's website: https://www.empiricalregionaleconomics.com/

Econometric Analysis of Regional Systems: Explorations in Model Building and Policy Analysis provides information pertinent to the use of regional econometric models for forecasting and policy analysis. This book presents macroeconomic forecasting for metropolitan regions. Organized into five chapters, this book begins with an overview of the problem of forecasting regional economic activity. This text then analyzes the principal types, economic base, input–output, and econometric of the regional economic models. Other chapters consider a large-scale econometric model for the Philadelphia region based on time series data to make forecasts for output, employment, prices, wages, income, economic activity, and other economic aggregates. This book discusses as well the types of forecasting models used in regional analysis. The final chapter deals with econometric techniques to bear on the problem of regional economic forecasting. This book is a valuable resource for economists, local policy makers, and government officials.

Compilation of essays on government policy and regional planning concerning developing areas in the USA - covers such topics as industrial development, industrial policy for both urban areas and rural areas surplus labour supply areas, urbanization, the employment opportunity promotion effects of new plants location (location of industry), capital flows, problems of rural poverty in Southern states, etc., and includes large-scale models for forecasting regional economic activity and descriptions of econometrics research methods.