Real Estate Modelling And Forecasting

As real estate forms a significant part of the asset portfolios of most investors and lenders, it is crucial that analysts and institutions employ sound techniques for modelling and forecasting the performance of real estate assets. Assuming no prior knowledge of econometrics, this book introduces and explains a broad range of quantitative techniques that are relevant for the analysis of real estate data. It includes numerous detailed examples, giving readers the confidence they need to estimate and interpret their own models. Throughout, the book emphasises how various statistical techniques may be used for forecasting and shows how forecasts can be evaluated. Written by a highly experienced teacher of econometrics and a senior real estate professional, both of whom are widely known for their research, Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting is the first book to provide a practical introduction to the econometric analysis of real estate for students and practitioners.

Foundations of Real Estate Financial Modelling is specifically designed to provide an overview of pro forma modelling for real estate projects. The book introduces students and professionals to the basics of real estate finance theory before providing a step-by-step guide for financial model construction using Excel. The idea that real estate is an asset with unique characteristics which can be transformed, both physically and financially, forms the basis of discussion. Individual chapters are separated by functional unit and build upon themselves to include information on: Amortization Single-Family Unit Multi-Family Unit Development/Construction Addition(s) Waterfall (Equity Bifurcation) Accounting Statements Additional Asset Classes Further chapters are dedicated to risk quantification and include scenario, stochastic and Monte Carlo simulations, waterfalls and securitized products. This book is the ideal companion to core real estate finance textbooks and will boost students Excel modelling skills before they enter the workplace. The book provides individuals with a step-by-step instruction on how to construct a real estate financial model that is both scalable and modular. A companion website provides the pro forma models to give readers a basic financial model for each asset class as well as methods to quantify performance and understand how and why each model is constructed and the best practices for repositioning these assets.

To fully function in today’s global real estate industry, students and professionals increasingly need to understand how to implement essential and cutting-edge quantitative techniques. This book presents an easy-to-read guide to applying quantitative analysis in real estate aimed at non-cognate undergraduate and masters students, and meets the requirements of modern professional practice. Through case studies and examples illustrating applications using data sourced from dedicated real estate information providers and major firms in the industry, the book provides an introduction to the foundations underlying statistical data analysis, common data manipulations and understanding descriptive statistics, before gradually building up to more advanced quantitative analysis, modelling and forecasting of real estate markets. Our examples and case studies within the chapters have been specifically compiled for this book and explicitly designed to help the reader acquire a better understanding of the quantitative methods addressed in each chapter. Our objective is to equip readers with the skills needed to confidently carry out their own quantitative analysis and be able to interpret empirical results from academic work and practitioner studies in the field of real estate and in other asset classes. Both undergraduate and masters level students, as well as real estate analysts in the professions, will find this book to be essential reading.

NAMED ONE OF THE BEST COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE BOOKS BY THE MOTLEY FOOL "Staiger gives us the technical tools needed to build robust pro forma modeling around our real estate assets." –MillionAcres Now in its third edition, Foundations of Real Estate Financial Modelling equips a new generation of students and professionals with a resource MillionAcres guarantees they’ll "use throughout [their] commercial investing career[s]." Designed to provide increased scalable basis of pro forma modelling for real estate projects, this complete update and revision of the classic text offers a step-by-step introduction to building and understanding the models underlying investments in properties from single-family rentals to large-scale developments. Case studies drawn from the author’s storied investment career put models into real-world context while problem sets at the end of each chapter provide hands-on practice for learners at any stage of their real estate careers. This edition employs the innovative financial metric P(Gain) to quantify the probability of a Return of Capital, ensuring readers’ ability to answer the most fundamental question of investing—What is the probability I’ll get my money back? The fully revised and enhanced third edition is organized in three functional units: (1) Real Estate Valuation Basics, Theory, and Skills, (2) Real Estate Pro Forma Modelling, and (3) Real Estate Pro Forma (Enhancements). Chapters cover: Interest Rates (Prime, LIBOR, SOFR) Amortization (Cash-Out Refinance modelling) ADC (Acquisition, Development, Construction) Module Rent Roll Module (including seasonality) Waterfall Hotel Consolidation Stochastic Modelling and Optimization Additional chapters are dedicated to risk quantification and include scenario, stochastic, and Monte Carlo simulations, equity waterfalls, and integration of US GAAP financial statements. A companion website provides the real estate pro forma models to readers as a reference for their own constructed models, www.pgainllc.com. An ideal companion in the classroom and the boardroom, this new edition of Foundations of Real Estate Financial Modelling will make even novices the "experts in the room on [their] chosen asset class" (MillionAcres).

Amidst the dramatic real estate fluctuations in the first decade of the twenty-first century, this study recognized that there is a necessity to create a real estate prediction model for future real estate ventures and prevention of losses such as the mortgage meltdown and housing bust. This real estate prediction model study sought to reinstall the integrity into the American building and development industry, which was tarnished by the sudden emergence of various publications offering get-rich-quick schemes. In the fast-paced and competitive world of lending and real estate development, it is becoming more complex to combine current and evolving factors into a profitable business model. This prediction model correlated past real estate cycle pinpoints to economical driving forces in order to create an ongoing formula. The study used a descriptive, secondary interpretation of raw data already available. Quarterly data was taken from the study's seven independent variables over a 24-year span from 1985 to 2009 to examine the correlation over two real estate cycles. Public information from 97 quarters (1985-2009) was also gathered on seven topics: consumer confidence, loan origination volume, construction employment statistics, migration, GDP, inflation, and interest rates. The Null hypothesis underwent a test of variance at a .05 level of significance. Multiple regression analysis uncovered that four of seven variables have correlated and could predict movement in real estate cycle evidence from previous data, based in the Inland Empire. GDP, interest rates, loan origination volume, and inflation were the four economical driving variables that completed the Inland Empire's real estate prediction model and global test. Findings from this study certify that there is correlation between economical driving factors and the real estate cycle. These correlations illustrate patterns and trends, which can become a prediction model using statistics. By interpreting and examining the data, this study believes that the prediction model is best utilized through pinpointing an exact numerical location by running calculations through the established global equation, and recommends further research and regular update of quarterly trends and movements in the real estate cycle and specific variables in the formula.

The comprehensive, broadly-applicable, real-world guide to financial modelling Principles of Financial Modelling – Model Design and Best Practices Using Excel and VBAcovers the full spectrum of financial modelling tools and techniques in order to provide practical skills that are grounded in real-world applications. Based on rigorously-tested materials created for consulting projects and for training courses, this book demonstrates how to plan, design and build financial models that are flexible, robust, transparent, and highly applicable to a wide range of planning, forecasting and decision-support contexts. This book integrates theory and practice to provide a high-value resource for anyone wanting to gain a practical understanding of this complex and nuanced topic. Highlights of its content include extensive coverage of: Model design and best practices, including the optimisation of data structures and layout, maximising transparency, balancing complexity with flexibility, dealing with circularity, model audit and error-checking Sensitivity and scenario analysis, simulation, and optimisation Data manipulation and analysis The use and choice of Excel functions and functionality, including advanced functions and those from all categories, as well as of VBA and its key areas of application within financial modelling The companion website provides approximately 235 Excel files (screen-clips of most of which are shown in the text), which demonstrate key principles in modelling, as well as providing many examples of the use of Excel functions and VBA macros. These facilitate learning and have a strong emphasis on practical solutions and direct real-world application. For practical instruction, robust technique and clear presentation, Principles of Financial Modelling is the premier guide to real-world financial modelling from the ground up. It provides clear instruction applicable across sectors, settings and countries, and is presented in a well-structured and highly-developed format that is accessible to people with different backgrounds.

The education of the real estate professional is changing andaligning itself more closely with the world of business. This book takes a new approach to property appraisal by exploringthe pricing mechanism in this changing context. It: * develops the notion of the pricing mechanism in relation toproperty * covers practical issues of comparison and the real problems inapplying valuation theory * explores calculations - including social and environmental worth- ignored in other texts As real estate professionals now advise both on strategic andoperational aspects of built assets, they must take into accountpractices of other investment markets and see investors ascompetitors to owner-occupiers. Both owner-occupiers and investorshave to assess accurately how their buildings perform but also beaware of wider sustainability issues, and social and environmentalresponsibilities. Real Estate Appraisal: from value to worth meets these new demandsby examining the latest techniques of the marketplace; developingan understanding of both market appraisal and worth; andhighlighting the emerging role of sustainability as a driver fordecision-making in real estate. Written by a group of highly experienced lecturers andprofessionals at the cutting edge of investment practice, the bookhas an accessible style and authoritative coverage, for bothstudents and practitioners facing changes in established ways ofworking. For supporting material please go towww.blackwellpublishing.com/sayce

This book gathers papers addressing state-of-the-art research in the areas of machine learning and predictive analysis, presented virtually at the Fourth International Conference on Information and Communication Technology for Intelligent Systems (ICTIS 2020), India. It covers topics such as intelligent agent and multi-agent systems in various domains, machine learning, intelligent information retrieval and business intelligence, intelligent information system development using design science principles, intelligent web mining and knowledge discovery systems.

As real estate investment trusts continue to grow exponentially in Asia and Europe - being already well established in the USA and Australasia - a comprehensive guide to the issues involved in REIT property investment decision making is badly needed. This book draws together the most recent developments in REIT management from academic research and professional practice. It is based on current, original academic research, including structured interviews with the managers of a wide range of different types of REITs as well as the research and publications of others, together with the author's 25 years experience in REIT management. It provides a theoretically robust and practically relevant up to date guide to the property investment decision making process for REITs. Presenting new insights, the author breaks the REIT property investment decision making process down into three phases comprising six stages with 30 sequential steps. Each chapter focuses on one stage of the property investment decision making process and introduces the key people in the REIT management team relevant to the activities in that chapter. The theory and principles are considered and illustrated by application to Super REIT, a $15bn diversified REIT. Global Real Estate Investment Trusts: People, Process and Management fuses not only how REITs should undertake property investment decision making - based on how it is undertaken and the underlying property theory, capital market theory and finance theory - but also why each part of the decision making process is important. This book provides the first sole-authored scholarly work specifically on REITs as a business enterprise and REIT property investment decision making as an holistic and cyclical process. The focus is on principles, making it relevant in each of the four major REIT markets around the world: USA, Europe, Asia and Australasia. An essential book for REIT managers and all those practising professionals involved in the REIT industry - including property practitioners, researchers, lawyers, accountants, bankers and directors around the world.