Radical Uncertainty Decision Making Beyond The Numbers
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Author | : John Kay |
Publisher | : W. W. Norton & Company |
Total Pages | : 407 |
Release | : 2020-03-17 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1324004789 |
Download Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book, now with a preface on COVID-19. Invented numbers offer a false sense of security; we need instead robust narratives that give us the confidence to manage uncertainty. “An elegant and careful guide to thinking about personal and social economics, especially in a time of uncertainty. The timing is impeccable." — Christine Kenneally, New York Times Book Review Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.
Author | : John Kay |
Publisher | : National Geographic Books |
Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 2021-09-07 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0393541983 |
Download Radical Uncertainty Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.
Author | : John Kay |
Publisher | : National Geographic Books |
Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 2020-03-17 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1324004770 |
Download Radical Uncertainty Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book. Invented numbers offer false security; we need instead robust narratives that yield the confidence to manage uncertainty. Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.
Author | : Mervyn King |
Publisher | : Bridge Street Press |
Total Pages | : 560 |
Release | : 2021-09-02 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9780349143996 |
Download Radical Uncertainty Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Author | : Itzhak Gilboa |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 216 |
Release | : 2009-03-16 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 052151732X |
Download Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This book describes the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty, as well as critiques thereof and alternative theories. It focuses on the meaning of probability, discussing some definitions and surveying their scope of applicability. The behavioral definition of subjective probability serves as a way to present the classical theories, culminating in Savage's theorem. The limitations of this result as a definition of probability lead to two directions - first, similar behavioral definitions of more general theories, such as non-additive probabilities and multiple priors, and second, cognitive derivations based on case-based techniques.
Author | : Rhonda Hustedt Jacobsen |
Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
Total Pages | : 209 |
Release | : 2012-07-03 |
Genre | : Religion |
ISBN | : 0199844747 |
Download No Longer Invisible Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Winner of a 2013 American Educational Studies Association Critics' Choice Award Drawing on conversations with hundreds of professors, co-curricular educators, administrators, and students from institutions spanning the entire spectrum of American colleges and universities, the Jacobsens illustrate how religion is constructively intertwined with the work of higher education in the twenty-first century. No Longer Invisible documents how, after decades when religion was marginalized, colleges and universities are re-engaging matters of faith-an educational development that is both positive and necessary. Religion in contemporary American life is now incredibly complex, with religious pluralism on the rise and the categories of "religious" and "secular" often blending together in a dizzying array of lifestyles and beliefs. Using the categories of historic religion, public religion, and personal religion, No Longer Invisible offers a new framework for understanding this emerging religious terrain, a framework that can help colleges and universities-and the students who attend them-interact with religion more effectively. The stakes are high: Faced with escalating pressures to focus solely on job training, American higher education may find that paying more careful and nuanced attention to religion is a prerequisite for preserving American higher education's longstanding commitment to personal, social, and civic learning.
Author | : Scott Turow |
Publisher | : Farrar, Straus and Giroux |
Total Pages | : 640 |
Release | : 2009-12-28 |
Genre | : Fiction |
ISBN | : 1429957751 |
Download The Burden of Proof Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
In The Burden of Proof, Scott Turow probes the fascinating and complex character of Alejandro Stern as he tries to uncover the truth about his wife's life. Late one spring afternoon, Alejandro Stern, the brilliant defense lawyer from Presumed Innocent, comes home from a business trip to find that Clara, his wife of thirty years, has committed suicide.
Author | : Bruce Ecker |
Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
Total Pages | : 304 |
Release | : 1995-11-07 |
Genre | : Psychology |
ISBN | : 0787901520 |
Download Depth Oriented Brief Therapy Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Reach a new stage in brief therapy Is it possible for clinicians to provide in-depth therapy in the cost-conscious, time-limited world of managed care? This groundbreaking book offers clinicians new hope of maintaining professional satisfaction in time-effective practice. Authors Bruce Ecker and Laurel Hulley provide a practical guide for clinicians on how to work deeply and briefly with individuals, couples, and families, and shows how to meet the challenge of managed care without losing the deeper levels of change traditionally associated with long-term or existential work. By using Depth-Oriented Brief Therapy, you'll work directly and immediately with the emotional and unconscious meanings that structure the very existence of the presenting problem.
Author | : Caleb Everett |
Publisher | : Harvard University Press |
Total Pages | : 308 |
Release | : 2017-03-13 |
Genre | : Language Arts & Disciplines |
ISBN | : 0674504437 |
Download Numbers and the Making of Us Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
“A fascinating book.” —James Ryerson, New York Times Book Review A Smithsonian Best Science Book of the Year Winner of the PROSE Award for Best Book in Language & Linguistics Carved into our past and woven into our present, numbers shape our perceptions of the world far more than we think. In this sweeping account of how the invention of numbers sparked a revolution in human thought and culture, Caleb Everett draws on new discoveries in psychology, anthropology, and linguistics to reveal the many things made possible by numbers, from the concept of time to writing, agriculture, and commerce. Numbers are a tool, like the wheel, developed and refined over millennia. They allow us to grasp quantities precisely, but recent research confirms that they are not innate—and without numbers, we could not fully grasp quantities greater than three. Everett considers the number systems that have developed in different societies as he shares insights from his fascinating work with indigenous Amazonians. “This is bold, heady stuff... The breadth of research Everett covers is impressive, and allows him to develop a narrative that is both global and compelling... Numbers is eye-opening, even eye-popping.” —New Scientist “A powerful and convincing case for Everett’s main thesis: that numbers are neither natural nor innate to humans.” —Wall Street Journal
Author | : Sanford Levinson |
Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
Total Pages | : 260 |
Release | : 2008 |
Genre | : Law |
ISBN | : 0195365577 |
Download Our Undemocratic Constitution Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Levinson here argues that too many of our Constitution's provisions promote either unjust or ineffective government. Under the existing blueprint, we can neither rid ourselves of incompetent presidents nor assure continuity of government following catastrophic attacks. Worse, our Constitution is the most difficult to amend or update in the world. Levinson boldly challenges the Americans to undertake a long overdue public discussion on how they might best reform this most hallowed document and construct a constitution adequate to our democratic values.