Quantifying The Current Us Fiscal Imbalance

This paper considers the magnitude of the U.S. fiscal imbalance, as measured by the permanent changes needed to stabilize the national debt as a share of GDP. At present, even after recent improvements in forecast deficits, this imbalance stands at 5.3 percent of GDP -- several times the magnitude of the current official deficit. The imbalance is due primarily to the growth of Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. Addressing an imbalance of this size will require significant policy changes. Even if current projected reductions in other government spending occur, and policies are adopted to eliminate the estimated OASDI imbalance and balance the federal budget in 2002, an additional and immediate reduction in the primary deficit of 2.7 percent of GDP will be required to establish a feasible fiscal policy. Waiting to adopt policy changes will increase the size of the required annual primary deficit reduction

Restoring America’s Fiscal Constitution estimates the potential impact of new fiscal rules on the U.S. economy over the next two decades. The new rules would require a cyclically balanced budget and an expenditure limit. The study shows that over the forecast period, the budget could be balanced and the total debt-to-GDP ratio reduced to the 60 percent tolerance level under this scheme, but this fiscal consolidation can only be achieved using a combination of fiscal reforms that go far beyond what has been proposed by Congress and the President. The first chapter explores the theoretical foundations of a fiscal constitution. The orthodox public finance view of public debt is contrasted with a public choice perspective. This is followed by chapters surveying the new fiscal rules enacted in other countries to address debt issues. Several chapters provide a historical perspective on U.S. debt, including a critical appraisal of our fiscal rules. New laws are proposed to address the debt crisis, and a dynamic simulation model is used to estimate the impact of the proposed laws on the U.S. economy. The final section provides a roadmap for enacting the proposed constitutional and statutory fiscal rules.

EBOOK: Advanced Macroeconomics

Ever since the Great Recession, the global financial regulatory system has undergone significant changes. But have these changes been sufficient? Have they created a new problem of over-regulation? Is the system currently in a better position than in the pre-Recession years, or have we not adequately addressed the basic causes of the financial crisis and resulting Great Recession?These were the questions and issues addressed in the seventeenth annual international banking conference held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in November 2014. In collaboration with the Bank of England, the theme of the conference was to examine the state of the new global financial system as it has evolved in response to significant market changes and regulatory reforms triggered by the global financial crisis. The papers from that conference are collected in this volume, with contributions from an international array of government officials, regulators, industry practitioners and academics.

Among the concepts used to assess the sustainability of fiscal policy in a changing demographic environment, generational accounting has become the most prominent. This book gives a complete and up-to-date introduction to the theory and practice of the method. It reveals deficiencies of the original residual concept and discusses various measures of intergenerational redistribution based on the recent sustainability approach to generational accounting. An application using data on German public finances serves to provide an in-depth explanation and practical illustration of the technique. The study develops new procedures to evaluate the fiscal externalities of migration and the redistribution of net wealth among living generations resulting from Social Security reform. The book is an indispensable source of reference for analysts employing generational accounting and for those wishing to study intertemporal redistribution through fiscal policy.

Within a historical perspective, Clayton clearly explains the "culture of debt" - its definition, how it got to be such a major burden, why we can't live without it, and ways to manage it more efficiently. He addresses the development of debt over the course of the 20th century in both the US and world economies. This comprehensive multidisciplinary analysis covers all aspects of debt - benefits and necessity; the impact (both good and bad) on individuals, corporations and governments; and lessons to be learned from the past. Clayton, drawing on current research and extensive primary data in economics, political science, and history, concludes that with our rapacious accumulation of debt and common-place use of "debt-finance", our society has set itself up for a significant financial decline.

More powerful and affluent today than ever, the United States has promising opportunities to influence the course of history. Yet these prospects are shadowed by significant perils and burdens. In this visionary book, leading scholars from the Brookings Institution and other prominent research organizations and universities analyze the major domestic and foreign policy problems facing the nation over the next five to ten years. The challenges on the domestic front are formidable: assuring fair but affordable access to health care, shoring up retirement income for an aging population, encouraging long-term economic growth, easing the growing pains of an increasingly diverse society, and reconciling energy policies with environmental concerns. In international affairs the central task is to use America's unprecedented power wisely and to protect a homeland that has been revealed as surprisingly vulnerable. Yet efforts must also focus on improving the economic fortunes of poorer countries, expanding trade, and reforming the rules that regulate the flows of capital across national borders. Is the United States government capable of rising to these vast and varied challenges? The concluding chapters of this book offer cautious optimism. While it is often criticized, the American political system is fundamentally resilient and flexible. Ambitious in scope, Agenda for the Nation provides thoughtful, constructive answers to questions of how the U.S. government can effectively serve its citizens and meet its global responsibilities in a world of opportunity and uncertainty.