Public Debt Dynamics During The Climate Transition

Managing the climate transition presents policymakers with a tradeoff between achieving climate goals, fiscal sustainability, and political feasibility, which calls for a fiscal balancing act with the right mix of policies. This paper develops a tractable dynamic general equilibrium model to quantify the fiscal impacts of various climate policy packages aimed at reaching net zero emissions by mid-century. Our simulations show that relying primarily on spending measures to deliver on climate ambitions will be costly, possibly raising debt by 45-50 percent of GDP by 2050. However, a balanced mix of carbon-pricing and spending-based policies can deliver on net zero with a much smaller fiscal cost, limiting the increase in public debt to 10-15 percent of GDP by 2050. Carbon pricing is central not only as an effective tool for emissions reduction but also as a revenue source. Delaying carbon pricing action could increase costs, especially if less effective measures are scaled up to meet climate targets. Technology spillovers can reduce the costs but bottlenecks in green investment could unwind the gains and slow the transition.

Despite its beneficial aspects, public debt can be hazardous for macroeconomic performance should it reach unrepayable levels as a consequence of snowballing explosive trends. Failure to monitor the existing trend in public debt in order to detect such divergences from the stable path, and the lack of an adaptive public financial management can potentially culminate in a public debt crisis whose disruptive economic impacts can permeate all sectors of the economy very swiftly. However, public debt sustainability is a vague concept with no straightforward operational definitions. In addition, its multi-faceted nature is an impediment for the implementation of real-world appraisal of the fiscal posture from a stability viewpoint. As such, quantifying the public debt sustainability is essential for overhauling the fiscal policies so as to avoid a potential debt crisis stemming from malfunctioning fiscal policies. This book provides the reader with a practical and straightforward framework that outlines a tool for undertaking public debt sustainability analysis. In order to guide further empirical investigations, the discussion in this book is underpinned by a real-world application of the model which highlights the practical aspects of the tool with reference to time-varying empirical evidence from a developing country.

In this paper, we study the impact of fragmented politics on public debt—in particular, between two consecutive legislative elections. Using data for 92 advanced and developing countries during 1975-2015, we find a positive association between political fragmentation and public debt changes. Corruption magnifies the effects; with higher perceived corruption, political fragmentation has a bigger sway on debt increases. The influence of political fragmentation on debt dynamics is somewhat asymmetric, with larger and more significant effects during periods of debt reduction. Establishment of fiscal councils helps attenuate the negative impact of political fragmentation on public debt dynamics.

The exposure of European Union sovereigns to climate risks can be acute, from extreme weather, or chronic, from the productivity effects of gradual temperature increase, increased sea levels and the transition to a low-carbon economy that results in repricing of assets. Climate-related innovations can also spur growth. These risks are priced by investors and can affect sovereign credit ratings. Governments and fiscal stability authorities have an interest in the sovereign-debt implications of climate change being transparent. To this end, we look at the exposure of EU sovereigns to climate risks, study international best practices, and describe the transmission channels from climate change to public finance. European union institutions and national fiscal authorities should mainstream climate risk analysis in public finance. Stress testing of debt dynamic requires a link between regional climate scenarios and country debt dynamics. We argue for the adoption of an architecture of narrative climate scenarios, to guide national policymaking. Narrative Scenarios can be generated using integrated assessment models. As an illustration, we apply two prominent models to generate rough bounds on the extent of the risk for Italian debt from climate change. This raises issues about the models used. Coordination by EU institutions to develop regional scenarios will ensure acceptability, raise ambitions in dealing with climate risks and encourage the fiscal authorities to think of solutions. A network for climate-proofing public finance will bring together EU and member-state institutions. We also recommend budgeting for climate expenditures and contingent liabilities, and using risk-sharing instruments, with disclosure of the risks to public finance from climate change.

This paper presents a practical guide to public debt dynamics, fiscal sustainability, and cyclical adjustment of budgetary aggregates. The paper discusses fiscal formulas, which may be of practical use in fiscal analysis. The paper derives, respectively, the formulas for debt dynamics, and cyclical and inflation adjustment of budgetary aggregates. It discusses other relationships for special applications, and some practical implications and usage. The formulas related to debt dynamics are based on the assumption that changes in liabilities are the result of above-the-line budgetary operations.

Public Debt Dynamics of Europe and the U.S., provides the evidence and implications of current policies by sovereigns and central banks, in dealing with the debt abyss. It brings in perspective the diversity of opinion reigning in modern economics and finance and outlines the themes which, among themselves, are defining the society in which we live. Our epoch has accepted the theory that leveraging is good for a person, a company or even a nation. This has led to the debt syndrome and its disastrous aftereffects. Throughout the book evidence emerges that piling up public debt can lead to an unmitigated disaster. This is demonstrated through case studies on Greece, Spain, Italy, France and the United States - in short, those western countries that nowadays have lost control of their senses and of their economy. This book uses real life examples, using case studies as evidence of good and bad approaches to social, economic and financial life. Live events also help as undisputable demonstrators of successes and failures in the search for solutions in getting out of the hole western governments find themselves. As Denis Healey, a former British chancellor of the Exchequer, once said: "The first law of holes is that if you are in one stop digging.”

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

This report provides actionable advice on how to design and implement fiscal policies for both development and climate action. Building on more than two decades of research in development and environmental economics, it argues that well-designed environmental tax reforms are especially valuable in developing countries, where they can reduce emissions, increase domestic revenues, and generate positive welfare effects such as cleaner water, safer roads, and improvements in human health. Moreover, these reforms need not harm competitiveness. New empirical evidence from Indonesia and Mexico suggests that under certain conditions, raising fuel prices can actually increase firm productivity. Finally, the report discusses the role of fiscal policy in strengthening resilience to climate change. It provides evidence that preventive public investments and measures to build fiscal buffers can help safeguard stability and growth in the face of rising climate risks. In this way, environmental tax reforms and climate risk-management strategies can lay the much-needed fiscal foundation for development and climate action.

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Public debt seems to be one of the great issues of the nineties. The United States have turned from the largest creditor of the world to the largest debtor, due to dramatic budget deficits. The European Union tries to build dams against the flood, see the treaty of Maastricht. And in Germany, public debt tends to explo de, doubling within a few years. The reason for this is the immense cost of Ger man unification. I had many helpful talks with my colleague Michael Schmid (now at Bam berg). In addition, Michael Brauninger and Philipp Lichtenauer carefully discus sed with me all parts of the manuscript. Last but not least, Doris Ehrich typed the manuscript as excellently as ever. I would like to thank all of them. Contents INTRODUCTION 3 5 BRIEF SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE PART I. CLOSED ECONOMY 9 CHAPTER I. SOLOW MODEL 11 1. Fixed Deficit Ratio 11 1. 1. Simple Model 11 1. 2. Short-Run Equilibrium 12 1. 3. Long-Run Equilibrium 14 1. 4. Optimal Deficit Ratio 18 1. 5. Optimal Saving Ratio 20 1. 6. Stability 21 1. 7. Shocks 23 1. 8. Budget Surplus 29 1. 9. Numerical Example 32 1. 10. Summary 37 2. Fixed Tax Rate 38 2. 1. Simple Model 38 2. 2. Short-Run Equilibrium 39 2. 3. Long-Run Equilibrium 40 2. 4. Stability 45 2. 5. Shocks 48 2. 6. Optimal Tax Rate 56 2. 7. Optimal Saving Ratio 57 2. 8. Numerical Example 58 2. 9.