Promoting Agricultural Trade To Enhance Resilience In Africa

The 2013 Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) contributes to the emerging debate by analyzing Africa’s recent trade performance and future outlook at the global and regional levels, including discussions of the mechanisms of dealing with food price volatility, the scope for increasing trans-border trade, and the potential impacts of weather-related shocks and biophysical factors on intra-regional exports. The ATOR finds that Africa’s share of world trade of goods and services, and specifically of agricultural goods, made a turnaround and started increasing in the 2000s. Also, intra-Africa agricultural exports have grown rapidly in recent years, particularly in calorie terms, thus lessening the continent’s dependence on the West in terms of trade. The Report attributes the improved trade performance to recent improvements in economic growth and infrastructure on the continent, together with higher world prices for some key raw materials.

Drylands are at the core of Africa’s development challenge. Drylands make up about 43 percent of the region’s land surface, account for about 75 percent of the area used for agriculture, and are home to about 50 percent of the population, including a disproportionate share of the poor. Due to complex interactions among many factors, vulnerability in drylands is high and rising, jeopardizing the long-term livelihood prospects for hundreds of millions of people. Climate change, which is expected to increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, will exacerbate this challenge. African governments and their partners in the international development community stand ready to tackle the challenges confronting drylands, but important questions remain unanswered about how the task should be undertaken. Do dryland environments contain enough resources to generate the food, jobs, and income needed to support sustainable livelihoods for a fast growing population? If not, can injections of external resources make up the deficit? Or is the carrying capacity of drylands so limited that outmigration should be encouraged? Based on analysis of current and projected future drivers of vulnerability and resilience, the report uses an original modeling framework to identify promising interventions, quantify their likely costs and benefits, and describe the policy trade-offs that will need to be addressed. By 2030, economic growth leading to structural change will allow some of the people living in drylands to transition to non-agriculture based livelihood strategies, reducing their vulnerability. Many others will continue to rely on livestock keeping and crop farming. For the latter group, a number of “best bet†? interventions have the potential to make a significant difference in reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience. This report evaluates the opportunities and challenges associated with these interventions, and it draws a number of conclusions that have important implications for policy making.

The African agricultural and food market is expanding quickly as indicated by World Bank projections that show that the value of Africa’s agriculture and agribusiness industry is expected to more than triple to reach USD 1 trillion by 2030, compared to 2010 (World Bank, 2013). This provides an opportunity to not only boost trade in food and non-food agricultural commodities and services within the continent but also enhance food security in Africa. Regional integration is also gaining momentum as evidenced by progress in the creation of customs unions and the initial steps in setting up a common external tariff at the regional level in a number of regional economic communities (RECs) such as the East African Community (EAC) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The establishment of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) further reinforces the gains achieved in regional integration and opens new market opportunities for farmers and other economic operators.It has been shown that the export of higher value-added products made in Africa is greater in regional markets than in external markets outside Africa, which are typically dominated by raw material exports. However, more than a decade after the adoption of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) in Maputo in 2003 by the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) in response to the stagnation of African agriculture, Africa continues to remain a marginal player, accounting for only 2.7 percent of world trade in goods and 5 percent of world agricultural trade (Bouët and Odjo, 2019).These figures are likely to trend downwards significantly in the near term due to the economic shock caused by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The continent currently depends to a significant degree on extra-African sources for imports of food and agricultural products. The share of intra-African agricultural trade has been consistently below 20 percent in recent decades (Bouët and Odjo, 2019; AGRA, 2019). Comparable figures for intraregional agricultural trade are higher for Asia and Europe (more than 60 percent).

To sustain Africa’s growth, and accelerate the eradication of extreme poverty, investment in infrastructure is fundamental. In 2010, the Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic found that to enable Africa to fill its infrastructure gap, some US$ 93 billion per year for the next decade will need to be invested. The Program for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA), endorsed in 2012 by the continent’s Heads of State and Government, lays out an ambitious long-term plan for closing Africa’s infrastructure including trough step increases in hydroelectric power generation and water storage capacity. Much of this investment will support the construction of long-lived infrastructure (e.g. dams, power stations, irrigation canals), which may be vulnerable to changes in climatic patterns, the direction and magnitude of which remain significantly uncertain. Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa 's Infrastructure evaluates -using for the first time a single consistent methodology and the state-of-the-arte climate scenarios-, the impacts of climate change on hydro-power and irrigation expansion plans in Africa’s main rivers basins (Niger, Senegal, Volta, Congo, Nile, Zambezi, Orange); and outlines an approach to reduce climate risks through suitable adjustments to the planning and design process. The book finds that failure to integrate climate change in the planning and design of power and water infrastructure could entail, in scenarios of drying climate conditions, losses of hydropower revenues between 5% and 60% (depending on the basin); and increases in consumer expenditure for energy up to 3 times the corresponding baseline values. In in wet climate scenarios, business-as-usual infrastructure development could lead to foregone revenues in the range of 15% to 130% of the baseline, to the extent that the larger volume of precipitation is not used to expand the production of hydropower. Despite the large uncertainty on whether drier or wetter conditions will prevail in the future in Africa, the book finds that by modifying existing investment plans to explicitly handle the risk of large climate swings, can cut in half or more the cost that would accrue by building infrastructure on the basis of the climate of the past.

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025 provides an assessment of prospects for the coming decade of the agricultural commodity markets across 41 countries and 12 regions, including OECD countries and key agricultural producers, such as India, China, Brazil, the Russian Federation and Argentina.

This book explains and explores how collaborations can be built and strengthened between African universities and farming communities to address real-world contemporary challenges. The book focuses on Community Action Research Platforms, an approach that has successfully enabled African universities to break free of the ivory tower and prove their relevance to society through deep collaborative engagements in targeted agricultural value chains. Developed in a pan-African network of universities (RUFORUM) focused on capacity building in agriculture, the approach has been tested in diverse settings over the last 15 years. The book draws on the experiences and lessons from 21 different projects initiated by RUFORUM member universities in Benin, Botswana, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Namibia, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda and Zimbabwe. It highlights a critical yet underutilised role for African universities as collaborators and catalysts for multisector solutions. These are solutions that increase productivity and address climate change. They develop livelihoods and resilience in rural communities, as well as promote farmers’ access to markets, innovation and trade while safeguarding biodiversity and enhancing food and nutrition security. The book makes a case for repositioning African universities as fulcrums of development in society. It shares the rich experiences, learnings and scientific findings of diverse researchers, practitioners and students who have been working towards achieving this reality on the ground. This multidisciplinary book holds appeal for university leaders, higher education, agrifood and development specialists, researchers and practitioners, policymakers and development agencies engaged in African agriculture and rural development, higher education and sustainable growth.

Pastoral livestock production is crucial to the livelihoods and the economy of Africa’s semiarid regions. It developed 7,000 years ago in response to long-tern climate change. It spread throughout Northern Africa as an adaptation to the rapidly changing and increasingly unpredictable arid climate. It is practiced in an area representing 43% of Africa’s land mass in the different regions of Africa, and in some regions it represents the dominant livelihoods system. It covers 36 countries, stretching from the Sahelian West to the rangelands of Eastern Africa and the Horn and the nomadic populations of Southern Africa, with an estimate of 268 million pastoralists. The mobility of pastoralists exploiting the animal feed resources along different ecological zones represents a flexible response to a dry and increasingly variable environment. It allows pastoral herds to use the drier areas during the wet season and more humid areas during the dry season. It ensures pastoral livestock to access sufficient high-quality grazing and create economic value. The objectives of this report are to investigate the current situation of pastoralism and the vulnerability context in which pastoralism currently functions and to outline the policy, resilience programming, and research areas of intervention to enhance the resilience of pastoral livelihoods systems. Scholarly views of pastoralism’s ecological impact have grown more positive since the early 1990s, when a new understanding of dryland dynamics led to the so-called new rangeland paradigm. The new rangeland paradigm represents a shift in the wider discourse on pastoralism from the earlier debates based on the “tragedy of the commons.” The new rangeland paradigm has provided a more comprehensive understanding of the drylands and shown that mobility is an appropriate strategy to exploit the natural resource base in these areas. In recent decades, the adaptability and mobility of pastoralism in relation to resource variability have been undermined by factors that are embedded in the institutional environment and policy that shape the vulnerability context of pastoralism. The report analyzes five factors that undermine the pastoral livelihoods resilience and the implications of these factors for the viability of pastoralism. On the basis of the analysis of vulnerability contexts that shape pastoralism, the report identifies interventions for increasing pastoral resilience.

Over the last decade, the combined impact of multiple drivers and shocks including food demand growth, stagnant crop yields, climate change, rising insecurity, and, more recently, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in worsening food and nutrition insecurity across West Africa. Despite this alarming trend, the region's diverse agriculture and food sector has the potential to provide West Africans with sufficient, affordable, and nutritious food while contributing to inclusive growth and poverty reduction. The report begins by providing an overview of key trends and developments shaping current food system outcomes before identifying and examining three interconnected priority areas for simultaneous intervention at regional level: i) Strengthening the Sustainability of the Food System's Productive Base: Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) at Farm and Landscape Level; ii) Promoting an Enabling Environment for Intraregional Value Chain Development and Trade Facilitation; and iii) Enhancing Regional Risk Management Architecture and Farmer Decision Support Tools. By proposing a set of implementation-ready regional flagship initiatives for each intervention area, the report supports a broad range of development partners and other actors in formulating policies and designing upcoming investment projects. Regional flagship initiatives proposed in the report include inter alia accelerating the evolution of the regional agricultural research system; promoting cross-border food value-chains through investments in food safety, quality control, and traceability systems; and upgrading early-warning and food crisis prevention systems by using digital technology.

'Economic losses from natural disasters totaled $92 billion in 2015.' Such statements, all too commonplace, assess the severity of disasters by no other measure than the damage inflicted on buildings, infrastructure, and agricultural production. But $1 in losses does not mean the same thing to a rich person that it does to a poor person; the gravity of a $92 billion loss depends on who experiences it. By focusing on aggregate losses—the traditional approach to disaster risk—we restrict our consideration to how disasters affect those wealthy enough to have assets to lose in the first place, and largely ignore the plight of poor people. This report moves beyond asset and production losses and shifts its attention to how natural disasters affect people’s well-being. Disasters are far greater threats to well-being than traditional estimates suggest. This approach provides a more nuanced view of natural disasters than usual reporting, and a perspective that takes fuller account of poor people’s vulnerabilities. Poor people suffer only a fraction of economic losses caused by disasters, but they bear the brunt of their consequences. Understanding the disproportionate vulnerability of poor people also makes the case for setting new intervention priorities to lessen the impact of natural disasters on the world’s poor, such as expanding financial inclusion, disaster risk and health insurance, social protection and adaptive safety nets, contingent finance and reserve funds, and universal access to early warning systems. Efforts to reduce disaster risk and poverty go hand in hand. Because disasters impoverish so many, disaster risk management is inseparable from poverty reduction policy, and vice versa. As climate change magnifies natural hazards, and because protection infrastructure alone cannot eliminate risk, a more resilient population has never been more critical to breaking the cycle of disaster-induced poverty.