Probability As A Guide In Life

This collection of philosophical essays looks at various technical problems in the use of probability theory for guidance in practical decisions. This text is intended for those who already have a basic grounding in philosophy, logic and probabilty theory.

This book presents not only the mathematical concept of probability, but also its philosophical aspects, the relativity of probability and its applications and even the psychology of probability. All explanations are made in a comprehensible manner and are supported with suggestive examples from nature and daily life, and even with challenging math paradoxes. (Mathematics)

Chance continues to govern our lives in the 21st Century. From the genes we inherit and the environment into which we are born, to the lottery ticket we buy at the local store, much of life is a gamble. In business, education, travel, health, and marriage, we take chances in the hope of obtaining something better. Chance colors our lives with uncertainty, and so it is important to examine it and try to understand about how it operates in a number of different circumstances. Such understanding becomes simpler if we take some time to learn a little about probability, since probability is the natural language of uncertainty. This second edition of Chance Rules again recounts the story of chance through history and the various ways it impacts on our lives. Here you can read about the earliest gamblers who thought that the fall of the dice was controlled by the gods, as well as the modern geneticist and quantum theory researcher trying to integrate aspects of probability into their chosen speciality. Example included in the first addition such as the infamous Monty Hall problem, tossing coins, coincidences, horse racing, birthdays and babies remain, often with an expanded discussion, in this edition. Additional material in the second edition includes, a probabilistic explanation of why things were better when you were younger, consideration of whether you can use probability to prove the existence of God, how long you may have to wait to win the lottery, some court room dramas, predicting the future, and how evolution scores over creationism. Chance Rules lets you learn about probability without complex mathematics.

Features an introduction to probability theory using measure theory. This work provides proofs of the essential introductory results and presents the measure theory and mathematical details in terms of intuitive probabilistic concepts, rather than as separate, imposing subjects.

At one level, this book surveys recent findings about the existence of planets orbiting other sun-like stars, such as 51 Pegasi (discovered in 1995) and Tau Bootis. It addresses questions such as what life is and what intelligent life is, as well as theories about how life evolved on Earth from basic molecules into more complex organic compounds leading to DNA. The existence of similar molecules on other planets in our solar system, as well as in meteorites that land on Earth every year, is used in an argument for the evolution of such compounds - the building blocks of life - outside Earth. At the same time, the author applies the laws of large numbers to the immense size of the known universe, with its billions of galaxies, each containing many billions of stars, to argue the probability that there is life elsewhere.

In a world where every action of ours is defined by probability, where luck can grant us everything or take it all away, humanity seeks understanding. How many times have you heard stories of individuals who seemingly were "just in the right place at the right time"? Or, conversely, of those who missed their chance by mere seconds? But what if you discovered that luck isn't just the whimsy of fate or a random coincidence of circumstances? What if luck was something greater, something that could be measured, predicted, and even controlled? In this book, we embark on a journey through the ages, exploring the philosophy of luck, the mechanics of probability, and the enigmas of the human perception. From ancient rituals to the latest scientific research, from personal narratives to cultural intricacies, we endeavor to unravel what truly lies behind this elusive concept we call "luck."

A revised edition that explores random numbers, probability, and statistical inference at an introductory mathematical level Written in an engaging and entertaining manner, the revised and updated second edition of Probably Not continues to offer an informative guide to probability and prediction. The expanded second edition contains problem and solution sets. In addition, the book’s illustrative examples reveal how we are living in a statistical world, what we can expect, what we really know based upon the information at hand and explains when we only think we know something. The author introduces the principles of probability and explains probability distribution functions. The book covers combined and conditional probabilities and contains a new section on Bayes Theorem and Bayesian Statistics, which features some simple examples including the Presecutor’s Paradox, and Bayesian vs. Frequentist thinking about statistics. New to this edition is a chapter on Benford’s Law that explores measuring the compliance and financial fraud detection using Benford’s Law. This book: Contains relevant mathematics and examples that demonstrate how to use the concepts presented Features a new chapter on Benford’s Law that explains why we find Benford’s law upheld in so many, but not all, natural situations Presents updated Life insurance tables Contains updates on the Gantt Chart example that further develops the discussion of random events Offers a companion site featuring solutions to the problem sets within the book Written for mathematics and statistics students and professionals, the updated edition of Probably Not: Future Prediction Using Probability and Statistical Inference, Second Edition combines the mathematics of probability with real-world examples. LAWRENCE N. DWORSKY, PhD, is a retired Vice President of the Technical Staff and Director of Motorola’s Components Research Laboratory in Schaumburg, Illinois, USA. He is the author of Introduction to Numerical Electrostatics Using MATLAB from Wiley.