Principles Of Business Forecasting 2nd Ed

Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

Ord/Fildes PRINCIPLES OF BUSINESS FORECASTING, 1E, International Edition is designed for both students and current practitioners in a variety of fields. The authors’ motivation for writing this book is to give users the tools and insight to make the most effective forecasts. Ord/Fildes PRINCIPLES OF BUSINESS FORECASTING, 1E, International Edition is designed for users who have taken a first course in applied statistics or have an equivalent background and provides an introduction to both standard and advanced forecasting approaches. This new, first edition text presents general principles that are the basis of forecasting practice. The information and data used are from actual government and business sources wherever possible. Forecasting techniques are shown in a variety of software platforms and the chapter organization provides an overview of forecasting in a variety of situations using time series and cross-sectional data. The focus then shifts to using extrapolative methods in forecasting, followed by statistical model-building. Finally, the authors cover more advanced techniques in the latter chapters, including the selection of the best forecasting method based on available data and the construction of a forecasting system with an organization.

Ord/Fildes PRINCIPLES OF BUSINESS FORECASTING, 1E serves as both a textbook for students and as a reference book for experienced forecasters in a variety of fields. The authors' motivation for writing this book is to give users the tools and insight to make the most effective forecasts drawing on the latest research ideas. Ord and Fildes have designed PRINCIPLES OF BUSINESS FORECASTING for users who have taken a first course in applied statistics or who have an equivalent background. This book introduces both standard and advanced forecasting methods and their underlying models, and also includes general principles to guide and simplify forecasting practice. A key strength of the book is its emphasis on real data sets, taken from government and business sources and used in each chapter's examples. Forecasting techniques are demonstrated using a variety of software platforms and the companion website provides easy-to-use Excel macros to support the basic methods. After the introductory chapters, the focus shifts to using extrapolative methods (exponential smoothing and ARIMA) and then to statistical model-building using multiple regression. The authors also cover more novel techniques including data mining and judgmental methods, which are gaining increasing attention in applications. Finally, they examine organizational issues of implementation and the development of a forecasting support system within an organization. Important Notice: Media content referenced within the product description or the product text may not be available in the ebook version.

Discover the role of machine learning and artificial intelligence in business forecasting from some of the brightest minds in the field In Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning accomplished authors Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, and Udo Sglavo deliver relevant and timely insights from some of the most important and influential authors in the field of forecasting. You'll learn about the role played by machine learning and AI in the forecasting process and discover brand-new research, case studies, and thoughtful discussions covering an array of practical topics. The book offers multiple perspectives on issues like monitoring forecast performance, forecasting process, communication and accountability for forecasts, and the use of big data in forecasting. You will find: Discussions on deep learning in forecasting, including current trends and challenges Explorations of neural network-based forecasting strategies A treatment of the future of artificial intelligence in business forecasting Analyses of forecasting methods, including modeling, selection, and monitoring In addition to the Foreword by renowned researchers Spyros Makridakis and Fotios Petropoulos, the book also includes 16 "opinion/editorial" Afterwords by a diverse range of top academics, consultants, vendors, and industry practitioners, each providing their own unique vision of the issues, current state, and future direction of business forecasting. Perfect for financial controllers, chief financial officers, business analysts, forecast analysts, and demand planners, Business Forecasting will also earn a place in the libraries of other executives and managers who seek a one-stop resource to help them critically assess and improve their own organization's forecasting efforts.

This book emphasizes the rationale, application, and interpretation of the most commonly used forecasting techniques in business.

The 21st century business environment demands more analysis and rigor in marketing decision making. Increasingly, marketing decision making resembles design engineering-putting together concepts, data, analyses, and simulations to learn about the marketplace and to design effective marketing plans. While many view traditional marketing as art and some view it as science, the new marketing increasingly looks like engineering (that is, combining art and science to solve specific problems). Marketing Engineering is the systematic approach to harness data and knowledge to drive effective marketing decision making and implementation through a technology-enabled and model-supported decision process. (For more information on Excel-based models that support these concepts, visit DecisionPro.biz.) We have designed this book primarily for the business school student or marketing manager, who, with minimal background and technical training, must understand and employ the basic tools and models associated with Marketing Engineering. We offer an accessible overview of the most widely used marketing engineering concepts and tools and show how they drive the collection of the right data and information to perform the right analyses to make better marketing plans, better product designs, and better marketing decisions. What's New In the 2nd Edition While much has changed in the nearly five years since the first edition of Principles of Marketing Engineering was published, much has remained the same. Hence, we have not changed the basic structure or contents of the book. We have, however Updated the examples and references. Added new content on customer lifetime value and customer valuation methods. Added several new pricing models. Added new material on "reverse perceptual mapping" to describe some exciting enhancements to our Marketing Engineering for Excel software. Provided some new perspectives on the future of Marketing Engineering. Provided better alignment between the content of the text and both the software and cases available with Marketing Engineering for Excel 2.0.

The recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed serious flaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and deal with the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starkly illustrated what many leaders and managers in business have known for years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting is badly broken. For that reason, forecasting business performance tops the list of concerns for CFO's across the globe. It is time to rethink the way businesses organize and run forecasting processes and how they use the insights that they provide to navigate through these turbulent times. This book synthesizes and structures findings from a range of disciplines and over 60 years of the authors combined practical experience. This is presented in the form of a set of simple strategies that any organization can use to master the process of forecasting. The key message of this book is that while no mortal can predict the future, you can take the steps to be ready for it. ’Good enough’ forecasts, wise preparation and the capability to take timely action, will help your organization to create its own future. Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, Future Ready leads the reader to answers to questions such as: What makes a good forecast? What period should a forecast cover? How frequently should it be updated? What information should it contain? What is the best way to produce a forecast? How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data manipulation? How should a forecast be used? How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable? How accurate does it need to be? How should you deal with risk and uncertainty What is the best way to organize a forecast process? Do you need multiple forecasts? What changes should be made to other performance management processes to facilitate good forecasting? Future Ready is an invaluable guide for practicing managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and craft of management. Praise for Future Ready "Will make a difference to the way you think about forecasting going forward" —Howard Green, Group Controller Unilever PLC "Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theory in a language that even the most reading-averse manager will love from page one" —Bjarte Bogsnes, Vice President Performance Management Development at StatoilHydro "A timely addition to the growing research on management planning and performance measurement." —Dr. Charles T. Horngren, Edmund G. Littlefield Professor of Accounting Emeritus Stanford University and author of many standard texts including Cost Accounting: A Managerial Emphasis, Introduction to Management Accounting, and Financial Accounting "In the area of Forecasting, it is the best book in the market." —Fritz Roemer. Leader of Enterprise Performance Executive Advisory Program, the Hackett Group

Consistently practical in its coverage, the book discusses general issues related to forecasting and management; introduces a variety of methods, and shows how to apply these methods to significant issues in managing technological development. With numerous exhibits, case studies and exercises throughout, it requires only basic mathematics and includes a special technology forecasting TOOLKIT for the IBM and compatibles, along with full instructions for installing and running the program.