Preventing Ozone Depletion

This book is the first comprehensive history of international efforts to protect the ozone layer, the greatest success yet achieved in managing human impacts on the global environment. Its arguments about how this success was achieved are both theoretically novel and of great significance for the management of other global problems, particularly global climate change. The book provides an account of the ozone-depletion issues from the first attempts to develop international action in the 1970s to the mature functioning of the present international regime. It examines the parallel developments of politics and negotiations, scientific understanding and controversy, technological progress, and industry strategy that shaped the issue's development and its effective management. In addition, the book offers important new insights into how the interactions among these domains influenced the formation and adaptation of the ozone regime. Addressing the initial formation of the regime, the book argues that authoritative scientific assessments were crucial in constraining policy debates and shaping negotiated agreements. Assessments gave scientific claims an ability to change policy actors' behavior that the claims themselves, however well known and verified, lacked. Concerning subsequent adaptation of the regime, the book identifies a series of feedbacks between the periodic revision of chemical controls and the strategic responses of affected industries, which drove rapid application of new approaches to reduce ozone-depleting chemicals. These feedbacks, promoted by the regime's novel technology assessment process, allowed worldwide use of the chemicals to decline further and faster than even the boldest predictions, by nearly 95 percent within ten years.

In the 1970s the world became aware of a huge danger: the destruction of the stratospheric ozone layer by CFCs escaping into the atmosphere, and the damage this could do to human health and the food chain. So great was the threat that by 1987 the UN had succeeded in coordinating an international treaty to phase out emissions; which, over the following 15 years has been implemented. It has been hailed as an outstanding success. It needed the participation of all the parties: governments, industry, scientists, campaigners, NGOs and the media, and is a model for future treaties. This volume provides the authoritative and comprehensive history of the whole process from the earliest warning signs to the present. It is an invaluable record for all those involved and a necessary reference for future negotiations to a wide range of scholars, students and professionals.

Protecting the Ozone Layer: Lessons, Models, and Prospects Since the mid-1980s, the international community has adopted several significant instruments designed to reverse the degradation of the life support systems of the planet. None of these international agreements have been as successful as the 1987 Montreal Protocol in creating the incentives and mechanisms for protecting the ozone layer. Through the efforts of industry, government and public interest groups, national commitments and achievements have progressed further and faster than expected, while the list of controlled chemicals has expanded. Now in its second decade, the Protocol enters a crucial phase of its implementation. Protecting the Ozone Layer: Lessons, Models, and Prospects presents a wealth of information about the scientific, legal-political, and technological hurdles that we will have to overcome if humanity is to reverse its self-destructive course. The technology section in particular should appeal to industries affected by ozone layer protection as well as those affected by climate protection, since this is the first ozone publication featuring insights by the companies that spearheaded the major technological breakthroughs. Every initiative to improve the environmental performance of industry has been accompanied by pronouncements of economic devastation, from acid rain to auto emissions standards, from auto mileage improvements to the protection of the ozone layer. Each new initiative brought claims from industry that this situation was different, yet none of their predictions have come true. At a time when industry fights efforts to protect the environment, the ozone experience shows both how technical breakthroughs have enabled environmental protection policies to work in the past and how they will work again in the future. Protecting the Ozone Layer: Lessons, Models, and Prospects is the product of a Colloquium that was organized in September 1997 to celebrate the tenth anniversary of the Montreal Protocol. Contributions have been gathered from researchers and practitioners in the field, including some of the very same scientists whose work awakened the international community to the seriousness of the danger that humanity now faces. Other contributors include the scholars and diplomats who wrote and negotiated the text of the Protocol and its amendments, and the key figures who have been influential in convincing industry to support the process.

Drawing on the experience of 58 developed and developing countries around the globe, this guidebook provides a concise overview of the ozone protection regulations. Besides providing a core knowledge about regulations worldwide, it should also stimulate the reader to further investigate different policy options and facilitate contact with focal points in other countries who already have experience with developing similar measures.

In recent years, several new concepts have emerged in the field of stratospheric ozone depletion, creating a need for a concise in-depth publication covering the ozone-climate issue. This monograph fills that void in the literature and gives detailed treatment of recent advances in the field of stratospheric ozone depletion. It puts particular emphasis on the coupling between changes in the ozone layer and atmospheric change caused by a changing climate. The book, written by leading experts in the field, brings the reader the most recent research in this area and fills the gap between advanced textbooks and assessments.

Decisions concerning whether to impose regulations to restrict emissions of potential ozone-depleting substances must be made in a context characterized by three important features: (1) estimates of the likely extent of future stratospheric-ozone depletion and its consequences for life on earth are highly uncertain; (2) continuing scientific research can be expected to reduce, but not eliminate, these uncertainties; and (3) the relationship between potential-ozone-depleter production and environmental consequences is characterized by lags on the order of decades or more. Using a simple decision-tree framework, this research addresses the key question of whether it is desirable to impose emission-limiting regulations now, or to wait five to ten years to develop improved scientific understanding before deciding whether to regulate. Under a wide range of assumptions, beginning regulations immediately is cost-effective if the probability that regulations will eventually be required exceeds about 0.3 to 0.5. The research was presented at the September 1986 United Nations Environment Programme Workshop on the Control of Chlorofluorocarbons.