Population Reconstruction

This book addresses the problems that are encountered, and solutions that have been proposed, when we aim to identify people and to reconstruct populations under conditions where information is scarce, ambiguous, fuzzy and sometimes erroneous. The process from handwritten registers to a reconstructed digitized population consists of three major phases, reflected in the three main sections of this book. The first phase involves transcribing and digitizing the data while structuring the information in a meaningful and efficient way. In the second phase, records that refer to the same person or group of persons are identified by a process of linkage. In the third and final phase, the information on an individual is combined into a reconstruction of their life course. The studies and examples in this book originate from a range of countries, each with its own cultural and administrative characteristics, and from medieval charters through historical censuses and vital registration, to the modern issue of privacy preservation. Despite the diverse places and times addressed, they all share the study of fundamental issues when it comes to model reasoning for population reconstruction and the possibilities and limitations of information technology to support this process. It is thus not a single discipline that is involved in such an endeavor. Historians, social scientists, and linguists represent the humanities through their knowledge of the complexity of the past, the limitations of sources, and the possible interpretations of information. The availability of big data from digitized archives and the need for complex analyses to identify individuals calls for the involvement of computer scientists. With contributions from all these fields, often in direct cooperation, this book is at the heart of the digital humanities, and will hopefully offer a source of inspiration for future investigations.

Current methods for reconstructing human populations of the past by age and sex are deterministic or do not formally account for measurement error. I propose Bayesian reconstruction, a method for simultaneously estimating age-specific population counts, fertility rates, mortality rates and net international migration flows from fragmentary data, that incorporates measurement error. Expert opinion is incorporated formally through informative priors. Inference is based on joint posterior probability distributions which yield fully probabilistic interval estimates. Previous methods of reconstruction did not account for measurement error, or imposed fixed age-patterns on some parameters. It is designed for the kind of data commonly collected in modern demographic surveys and censuses. Population dynamics over the period of reconstruction are modeled by embedding formal demographic accounting relationships in a Bayesian hierarchical model. Informative priors are specified for vital rates, migration rates, population counts at baseline, and their respective measurement error variances. Statistical properties of Bayesian reconstruction are investigated through simulation and sensitivity analyzes. The method is applied to real data from Burkina Faso, Laos, New Zealand, Sri Lanka, Thailand and India, demonstrating its applicability to developing and developed countries. It can also be used to compare model life tables. When full populations are reconstructed, probabilistic estimates of sex ratios, such as the sex ratio at birth and sex ratios of mortality, can also be obtained. Bayesian reconstruction is implemented in the R package popReconstruct.

This was the first paperback edition of a classic work of recent English historiography, first published in 1981. In analysing the population of a country over several centuries, the authors qualify, confirm or overturn traditional assumptions and marshal a mass of statistical material into a series of clear, lucid arguments about past patterns of demographic behaviour and their relationship to economic trends. The Population History of England presents basic demographic statistics - monthly totals of births, deaths and marriages - and uses them in conjunction with new methods of analysis to determine population size, gross production rates, expectation of life at birth, age structure and net migration totals. The results make it possible to construct a new model of the interplay of economic and demographic variables in England before and during the industrial picture of English population trends between 1541 and 1871 is a remarkable achievement and in a short preface, the authors consider the debate engendered by the book, the impact of which has been felt far beyond the traditional disciplinary confines of historical demography.

This book uses data from 26 Anglican to provide information about fertility, morality and nuptiality in the past.

Just seven months into the Civil War, a Union fleet sailed into South Carolina’s Port Royal Sound, landed a ground force, and then made its way upriver to Beaufort. Planters and farmers fled before their attackers, allowing virtually all their major possessions, including ten thousand slaves, to fall into Union hands. Rehearsal for Reconstruction, winner of the Allan Nevins Prize, the Francis Parkman Prize, and the Charles S. Sydnor Prize, is historian Willie Lee Rose’s chronicle of change in this Sea Island region from its capture in 1861 through Reconstruction. With epic sweep, Rose demonstrates how Port Royal constituted a stage upon which a dress rehearsal for the South’s postwar era was acted out.

In Youth and Post-Conflict Reconstruction: Agents of Change, Stephanie Schwartz goes beyond these highly publicized cases and examines the roles of the broader youth population in post-conflict scenarios, taking on the complex task of distinguishing between the legal and societal labels of "child," "youth," and "adult."

The newest volume in the Oxford History of the United States series, The Republic for Which It Stands argues that the Gilded Age, along with Reconstruction--its conflicts, rapid and disorienting change, hopes and fears--formed the template of American modernity.

This book is a selection of papers explaining a variety of techniques used in the analysis of historical demographic data. The papers come from experts in the field of systematic analysis of past population patterns. The papers are divided into five groups. The first tackles the issues andchallenges of time series analysis and other approaches to population reconstruction. The second group deals with different methods of family reconstitution and the problems of following life Scholars and students of politics, political theory, philosophy, sociology, and jurisprudence; anyoneinterested in nation-building, nationalism, and self-determination.