Peer Review Of The Draft Report Modeling The Cost And Performance Of Lithium Ion Batteries For Electric Drive Vehicles

The light-duty vehicle fleet is expected to undergo substantial technological changes over the next several decades. New powertrain designs, alternative fuels, advanced materials and significant changes to the vehicle body are being driven by increasingly stringent fuel economy and greenhouse gas emission standards. By the end of the next decade, cars and light-duty trucks will be more fuel efficient, weigh less, emit less air pollutants, have more safety features, and will be more expensive to purchase relative to current vehicles. Though the gasoline-powered spark ignition engine will continue to be the dominant powertrain configuration even through 2030, such vehicles will be equipped with advanced technologies, materials, electronics and controls, and aerodynamics. And by 2030, the deployment of alternative methods to propel and fuel vehicles and alternative modes of transportation, including autonomous vehicles, will be well underway. What are these new technologies - how will they work, and will some technologies be more effective than others? Written to inform The United States Department of Transportation's National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission standards, this new report from the National Research Council is a technical evaluation of costs, benefits, and implementation issues of fuel reduction technologies for next-generation light-duty vehicles. Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles estimates the cost, potential efficiency improvements, and barriers to commercial deployment of technologies that might be employed from 2020 to 2030. This report describes these promising technologies and makes recommendations for their inclusion on the list of technologies applicable for the 2017-2025 CAFE standards.

This report details the Battery Performance and Cost model (BatPaC) developed at Argonne National Laboratory for lithium-ion battery packs used in automotive transportation. The model designs the battery for a specified power, energy, and type of vehicle battery. The cost of the designed battery is then calculated by accounting for every step in the lithium-ion battery manufacturing process. The assumed annual production level directly affects each process step. The total cost to the original equipment manufacturer calculated by the model includes the materials, manufacturing, and warranty costs for a battery produced in the year 2020 (in 2010 US$). At the time this report is written, this calculation is the only publicly available model that performs a bottom-up lithium-ion battery design and cost calculation. Both the model and the report have been publicly peer-reviewed by battery experts assembled by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. This report and accompanying model include changes made in response to the comments received during the peer-review. The purpose of the report is to document the equations and assumptions from which the model has been created. A user of the model will be able to recreate the calculations and perhaps more importantly, understand the driving forces for the results. Instructions for use and an illustration of model results are also presented. Almost every variable in the calculation may be changed by the user to represent a system different from the default values pre-entered into the program. The distinct advantage of using a bottom-up cost and design model is that the entire power-to-energy space may be traversed to examine the correlation between performance and cost. The BatPaC model accounts for the physical limitations of the electrochemical processes within the battery. Thus, unrealistic designs are penalized in energy density and cost, unlike cost models based on linear extrapolations. Additionally, the consequences on cost and energy density from changes in cell capacity, parallel cell groups, and manufacturing capabilities are easily assessed with the model. New proposed materials may also be examined to translate bench-scale values to the design of full-scale battery packs providing realistic energy densities and prices to the original equipment manufacturer.

This report details the Battery Performance and Cost model (BatPaC) developed at Argonne National Laboratory for lithium-ion battery packs used in automotive transportation. The model designs the battery for a specified power, energy, and type of vehicle battery. The cost of the designed battery is then calculated by accounting for every step in the lithium-ion battery manufacturing process. The assumed annual production level directly affects each process step. The total cost to the original equipment manufacturer calculated by the model includes the materials, manufacturing, and warranty costs for a battery produced in the year 2020 (in 2010 US$). At the time this report is written, this calculation is the only publically available model that performs a bottom-up lithium-ion battery design and cost calculation. Both the model and the report have been publically peer-reviewed by battery experts assembled by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. This report and accompanying model include changes made in response to the comments received during the peer-review. The purpose of the report is to document the equations and assumptions from which the model has been created. A user of the model will be able to recreate the calculations and perhaps more importantly, understand the driving forces for the results. Instructions for use and an illustration of model results are also presented. Almost every variable in the calculation may be changed by the user to represent a system different from the default values pre-entered into the program. The distinct advantage of using a bottom-up cost and design model is that the entire power-to-energy space may be traversed to examine the correlation between performance and cost. The BatPaC model accounts for the physical limitations of the electrochemical processes within the battery. Thus, unrealistic designs are penalized in energy density and cost, unlike cost models based on linear extrapolations. Additionally, the consequences on cost and energy density from changes in cell capacity, parallel cell groups, and manufacturing capabilities are easily assessed with the model. New proposed materials may also be examined to translate bench-scale values to the design of full-scale battery packs providing realistic energy densities and prices to the original equipment manufacturer. The model will be openly distributed to the public in the year 2011. Currently, the calculations are based in a Microsoft{reg_sign} Office Excel spreadsheet. Instructions are provided for use; however, the format is admittedly not user-friendly. A parallel development effort has created an alternate version based on a graphical user-interface that will be more intuitive to some users. The version that is more user-friendly should allow for wider adoption of the model.

This study by the National Research Council (NRC) was requested by DOE's Office of Advanced Automotive Technologies. The study focuses on the processes used by the USABC to select, evaluate, and manage R&D projects on EV batteries in Phases I and II of the program.