No Single Currency Regime Is Right For All Countries Or At All Times

This essay considers some prescriptions that are currently popular regarding exchange rate regimes: a general movement toward floating, a general movement toward fixing, or a general movement toward either extreme and away from the middle. The whole spectrum from fixed to floating is covered (including basket pegs, crawling pegs, and bands), with special attention to currency boards and dollarization. One overall theme is that the appropriate exchange rate regime varies depending on the specific circumstances of the country in question (which includes the classic optimum currency area criteria, as well as some newer criteria related to credibility) and depending on the circumstances of the time period in question (which includes the problem of successful exit strategies). Latin American interest rates are seen to be more sensitive to US interest rates when the country has a loose dollar peg than when it has a tight peg. It is also argued that such relevant country characteristics as income correlations and openness can vary over time, and that the optimum currency area criterion is accordingly endogenous.

Using recent advances in the classification of exchange rate regimes, this paper finds no support for the popular bipolar view that countries will tend over time to move to the polar extremes of free float or rigid peg. Rather, intermediate regimes have shown remarkable durability. The analysis suggests that as economies mature, the value of exchange rate flexibility rises. For countries at a relatively early stage of financial development and integration, fixed or relatively rigid regimes appear to offer some anti-inflation credibility gain without compromising growth objectives. As countries develop economically and institutionally, there appear to be considerable benefits to more flexible regimes. For developed countries that are not in a currency union, relatively flexible exchange rate regimes appear to offer higher growth without any cost in credibility.

This essay considers some prescriptions that are currently popular regarding exchange rate regimes: a general movement toward floating, a general movement toward fixing, or a general movement toward either extreme and away from the middle. The whole spectrum from fixed to floating is covered (including basket pegs, crawling pegs, and bands), with special attention to currency boards and dollarization. One overall theme is that the appropriate exchange rate regime varies depending on the specific circumstances of the country in question (which includes the classic optimum currency area criteria, as well as some newer criteria related to credibility) and depending on the circumstances of the time period in question (which includes the problem of successful exit strategies). Latin American interest rates are seen to be more sensitive to US interest rates when the country has a loose dollar peg than when it has a tight peg. It is also argued that such relevant country characteristics as income correlations and openness can vary over time, and that the optimum currency area criterion is accordingly endogenous.

Analyzes the costs and benefits of full dollarization, or the adoption by one country of another country's currency. Potential advantages include lower borrowing costs and deeper integration into world markets. But countries lose the ability to devalue, and become dependent on the U.S. Compares with currency board option.

In this analysis Morris Goldstein examines currency regime choices for emerging economies that are heavily involved with private capital markets. The author argues that the best regime choice for such economies would be managed floating plus, where "plus" is shorthand for a framework that includes inflation targeting and aggressive measures to discourage currency mismatching. Goldstein argues that if managed floating were enhanced in this way, it would retain the desirable features of a flexible rate regime while addressing the nominal anchor and balance-sheet problems that have historically underpinned a "fear of floating" and handicapped the performance of managed floating in emerging economies. The author also shows why managed floating plus is superior to four alternative currency-regime options--an adjustable peg system, a "BBC (basket, band, crawl) regime," a currency board, and dollarization.

Praise for Handbook of Exchange Rates “This book is remarkable. I expect it to become the anchor reference for people working in the foreign exchange field.” —Richard K. Lyons, Dean and Professor of Finance, Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley “It is quite easily the most wide ranging treaty of expertise on the forex market I have ever come across. I will be keeping a copy close to my fingertips.” —Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management How should we evaluate the forecasting power of models? What are appropriate loss functions for major market participants? Is the exchange rate the only means of adjustment? Handbook of Exchange Rates answers these questions and many more, equipping readers with the relevant concepts and policies for working in today’s international economic climate. Featuring contributions written by leading specialists from the global financial arena, this handbook provides a collection of original ideas on foreign exchange (FX) rates in four succinct sections: • Overview introduces the history of the FX market and exchange rate regimes, discussing key instruments in the trading environment as well as macro and micro approaches to FX determination. • Exchange Rate Models and Methods focuses on forecasting exchange rates, featuring methodological contributions on the statistical methods for evaluating forecast performance, parity relationships, fair value models, and flow–based models. • FX Markets and Products outlines active currency management, currency hedging, hedge accounting; high frequency and algorithmic trading in FX; and FX strategy-based products. • FX Markets and Policy explores the current policies in place in global markets and presents a framework for analyzing financial crises. Throughout the book, topics are explored in-depth alongside their founding principles. Each chapter uses real-world examples from the financial industry and concludes with a summary that outlines key points and concepts. Handbook of Exchange Rates is an essential reference for fund managers and investors as well as practitioners and researchers working in finance, banking, business, and econometrics. The book also serves as a valuable supplement for courses on economics, business, and international finance at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.

This 2014 Edition of THE SINGLE GLOBAL CURRENCY - COMMON CENTS FOR THE WORLD is the fifth book of this name, and it updates the text of the original 2006 edition. The 2007, 2008 and 2009 editions included the original edition together with an annual update appendix. Future editions are planned in five year increments for 2019 and 2024, the latter date being the 80th anniversary of the 1944 Bretton Woods Conference. The book is for all readers around the world, as every human being in our increasingly globalized world has an interest in achieving the goal of a Single Global Currency. What the people of the world want and deserve is stable money, so that the money they earn, save and invest today will be worth almost the same tomorrow. The Single Global Currency will provide that stability. It is the common cents/sense currency for our increasingly globalized world. The current multicurrency global monetary system is volatile and extremely risky as $5.3 trillion worth of currencies are traded every trading day on the global foreign exchange markets. Currencies crises are a continuing threat. Avoiding the effects and risks of currency fluctuations and rapid flows of cross-currency capital were the primary goals of the International Monetary Fund at its 1945 creation, and the Single Global Currency will solve both problems. The Single Global Currency will be managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union. Since 1999, the primary model for this "3-G" system has been the euro which is managed by the European Central Bank within the European Monetary Union. Beginning with 12 member countries, the eurozone now has 18 members and continues to grow toward its full potential of all the members of the growing European Union, which now number 28. Creation of a Single Global Currency is not a new idea or goal, but is now feasible thanks to automation and the increasing interdependence of the world's peoples. The potential benefits of a Single Global Currency are staggering: - Worldwide asset values will increase by about $10 trillion. - Worldwide GDP will increase by $trillions. - Global trade will increase by $trillions. - Annual FX trading transaction costs of $300 billion will be avoided. - Global currency/payments imbalances will be eliminated. - Currency crises will be eliminated. - Currency speculation will be eliminated. - The need for unproductive foreign exchange reserves will be eliminated. Currently, the 193 members of the United Nations use 140 currencies for their international and domestic transactions. The 50+ members without their own national currencies are using the currencies of monetary unions of which they are members, or they are using ("izing") the currencies of other countries or monetary unions. As existing monetary unions in Europe, the Caribbean and Africa are expanded, and as new monetary unions are created in Africa, the Americas, Asia and the Mid-East, the number of currencies will continue to decline. At some "tipping point," perhaps after a merger of large currencies, the largest monetary union currency will likely be designated as the world's Single Global Currency. This process can be accelerated when individuals, nations and global institutions openly declare their support for a Single Global Currency and they initiate the necessary steps toward that goal. Such steps will include a global internet-based naming process for the new currency and a timeline for implementation. There is little question that the world is moving toward a Single Global Currency. The remaining question is When? The global challenge will be to achieve the Single Global Currency with a smooth transition from the existing multicurrency system. It is hoped that this book, and the work of the Single Global Currency Association (www.singleglobalcurrency.org) will help move the world in that direction.

The politics surrounding exchange rate policies in the global economy The exchange rate is the most important price in any economy, since it affects all other prices. Exchange rates are set, either directly or indirectly, by government policy. Exchange rates are also central to the global economy, for they profoundly influence all international economic activity. Despite the critical role of exchange rate policy, there are few definitive explanations of why governments choose the currency policies they do. Filled with in-depth cases and examples, Currency Politics presents a comprehensive analysis of the politics surrounding exchange rates. Identifying the motivations for currency policy preferences on the part of industries seeking to influence politicians, Jeffry Frieden shows how each industry's characteristics—including its exposure to currency risk and the price effects of exchange rate movements—determine those preferences. Frieden evaluates the accuracy of his theoretical arguments in a variety of historical and geographical settings: he looks at the politics of the gold standard, particularly in the United States, and he examines the political economy of European monetary integration. He also analyzes the politics of Latin American currency policy over the past forty years, and focuses on the daunting currency crises that have frequently debilitated Latin American nations, including Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. With an ambitious mix of narrative and statistical investigation, Currency Politics clarifies the political and economic determinants of exchange rate policies.

An analysis of the operation and consequences of exchange rate regimes in an era of increasing international interdependence. The exchange rate is sometimes called the most important price in a highly globalized world. A country's choice of its exchange rate regime, between government-managed fixed rates and market-determined floating rates has significant implications for monetary policy, trade, and macroeconomic outcomes, and is the subject of both academic and policy debate. In this book, two leading economists examine the operation and consequences of exchange rate regimes in an era of increasing international interdependence. Michael Klein and Jay Shambaugh focus on the evolution of exchange rate regimes in the modern era, the period since 1973, which followed the Bretton Woods era of 1945–72 and the pre-World War I gold standard era. Klein and Shambaugh offer a comprehensive, integrated treatment of the characteristics of exchange rate regimes and their effects. The book draws on and synthesizes data from the recent wave of empirical research on this topic, and includes new findings that challenge preconceived notions.

The European Community is negotiating a new treaty to establish the constitutional foundations of an economic and monetary union in the course of the 1990s. This study provides the only comprehensive guide to the economic implications of economic and monetary union. The work of an economist inside the Commission of the European Community, it reflects the considerations influencing the design of the union. The study creates a unique bridge between the insights of modern economic analysis and the work of the policy makers preparing for economic and monetary union.