New Product Forecasting

Concise and jargon free, this is a one-step primer on the tools and techniques of forecasting new product development. Equally useful for students and professionals, the book is generously illustrated, and features numerous current real-world industry cases and examples. Part I covers the basic foundations and processes of new product forecasting, and links forecasting to the broader processes of new product development and sales and operations planning. Part II includes detailed, step-by-step techniques of new product forecasting, from judgmental techniques to regression analysis. Each chapter in this section begins with the most basic techniques, then progresses to more advanced levels. Part III addresses managerial considerations of new product forecasting, including postlaunch issues such as cannibalization and supercession. The final chapter presents an important set of industry best practices and benchmarks.

Concise and jargon free, this is a one-step primer on the tools and techniques of forecasting new product development. Equally useful for students and professionals, the book is generously illustrated, and features numerous current real-world industry cases and examples. Part I covers the basic foundations and processes of new product forecasting, and links forecasting to the broader processes of new product development and sales and operations planning. Part II includes detailed, step-by-step techniques of new product forecasting, from judgmental techniques to regression analysis. Each chapter in this section begins with the most basic techniques, then progresses to more advanced levels. Part III addresses managerial considerations of new product forecasting, including postlaunch issues such as cannibalization and supercession. The final chapter presents an important set of industry best practices and benchmarks.

Introducing the first of a new line of Portable MBA books focusing on specific subjects vital in today's business circles. Managers learn how to maintain a firm grasp of a project throughout its development, how to forecast more accurately, and ultimately how to ensure the success of a product launch.

Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry is a definitive guide for forecasters as well as the multitude of decision makers and executives who rely on forecasts in their decision making. In virtually every decision, a pharmaceutical executive considers some type of forecast. This process of predicting the future is crucial to many aspects of the company - from next month's production schedule, to market estimates for drugs in the next decade. The pharmaceutical forecaster needs to strike a delicate balance between over-engineering the forecast - including rafts of data and complex ’black box’ equations that few stakeholders understand and even fewer buy into - and an overly simplistic approach that relies too heavily on anecdotal information and opinion. Arthur G. Cook's highly pragmatic guide explains the basis of a successful balanced forecast for products in development as well as currently marketed products. The author explores the pharmaceutical forecasting process; the varied tools and methods for new product and in-market forecasting; how they can be used to communicate market dynamics to the various stakeholders; and the strengths and weaknesses of different forecast approaches. The text is liberally illustrated with tables, diagrams and examples. The final extended case study provides the reader with an opportunity to test out their knowledge. The second edition has been updated throughout and includes a brand new chapter focusing on specialized topics such as forecasting for orphan drugs and biosimilars.

Praise for Demand-Driven Forecasting A Structured Approach to Forecasting "There are authors of advanced forecasting books who take an academic approach to explaining forecast modeling that focuses on the construction of arcane algorithms and mathematical proof that are not very useful for forecasting practitioners. Then, there are other authors who take a general approach to explaining demand planning, but gloss over technical content required of modern forecasters. Neither of these approaches is well-suited for helping business forecasters critically identify the best demand data sources, effectively apply appropriate statistical forecasting methods, and properly design efficient demand planning processes. In Demand-Driven Forecasting, Chase fills this void in the literature and provides the reader with concise explanations for advanced statistical methods and credible business advice for improving ways to predict demand for products and services. Whether you are an experienced professional forecasting manager, or a novice forecast analyst, you will find this book a valuable resource for your professional development." —Daniel Kiely, Senior Manager, Epidemiology, Forecasting & Analytics, Celgene Corporation "Charlie Chase has given forecasters a clear, responsible approach for ending the timeless tug of war between the need for 'forecast rigor' and the call for greater inclusion of 'client judgment.' By advancing the use of 'domain knowledge' and hypothesis testing to enrich base-case forecasts, he has empowered professional forecasters to step up and impact their companies' business results favorably and profoundly, all the while enhancing the organizational stature of forecasters broadly." —Bob Woodard, Vice President, Global Consumer and Customer Insights, Campbell Soup Company

Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

Discover the role of machine learning and artificial intelligence in business forecasting from some of the brightest minds in the field In Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning accomplished authors Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, and Udo Sglavo deliver relevant and timely insights from some of the most important and influential authors in the field of forecasting. You'll learn about the role played by machine learning and AI in the forecasting process and discover brand-new research, case studies, and thoughtful discussions covering an array of practical topics. The book offers multiple perspectives on issues like monitoring forecast performance, forecasting process, communication and accountability for forecasts, and the use of big data in forecasting. You will find: Discussions on deep learning in forecasting, including current trends and challenges Explorations of neural network-based forecasting strategies A treatment of the future of artificial intelligence in business forecasting Analyses of forecasting methods, including modeling, selection, and monitoring In addition to the Foreword by renowned researchers Spyros Makridakis and Fotios Petropoulos, the book also includes 16 "opinion/editorial" Afterwords by a diverse range of top academics, consultants, vendors, and industry practitioners, each providing their own unique vision of the issues, current state, and future direction of business forecasting. Perfect for financial controllers, chief financial officers, business analysts, forecast analysts, and demand planners, Business Forecasting will also earn a place in the libraries of other executives and managers who seek a one-stop resource to help them critically assess and improve their own organization's forecasting efforts.

Incorporating 25 years of sales forecasting management research with more than 400 companies, Sales Forecasting Management, Second Edition is the first text to truly integrate the theory and practice of sales forecasting management. This research includes the personal experiences of John T. Mentzer and Mark A. Moon in advising companies how to improve their sales forecasting management practices. Their program of research includes two major surveys of companies′ sales forecasting practices, a two-year, in-depth study of sales forecasting management practices of 20 major companies, and an ongoing study of how to apply the findings from the two-year study to conducting sales forecasting audits of additional companies. The book provides comprehensive coverage of the techniques and applications of sales forecasting analysis, combined with a managerial focus to give managers and users of the sales forecasting function a clear understanding of the forecasting needs of all business functions. New to This Edition: The author′s well-regarded Multicaster software system demo, previously available on cassette, has been updated and is now available for download from the authors′ Web site New insights on the critical area of qualitative forecasting are presented The results of additional surveys done since the publication of the first edition have been added The discussion of the four dimensions of forecasting management has been significantly enhanced Significant reorganization and updating has been done to strengthen and improve the material for the second edition. Sales Forecasting Management is an ideal text for graduate courses in sales forecasting management. Practitioners in marketing, sales, finance/accounting, production/purchasing, and logistics will also find this easy-to-understand volume essential.