Monetary Divergence

"In a meticulously researched study, David Bearce demonstrates that, contrary to predictions, financial globalization has not resulted in a systematic convergence of national monetary policies. The book is a must-read for students of the political economy of international finance. Highlighting the critical role of partisan politics in determining policy outcomes, Bearce adds a new and important dimension to our understanding of the impacts of international capital mobility in the contemporary era." —Benjamin Jerry Cohen, University of California, Santa Barbara "Bearce offers a compelling analysis of partisan economic policy in an open economy. By analyzing both fiscal and monetary policies, Bearce extends our understanding of how the electoral imperative conditions policy behavior. His conclusions will have to be addressed in any future debate about the topic." —William Bernhard, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign "Interest group divisions over exchange rates and macroeconomic policy have been at the center of international political economy research for about 20 years. Political scientists have studied these cleavages, focusing on the policy interests of various industry groups. On a separate but parallel track, another group of researchers explored the relationship between partisan politics and macroeconomic policy choices. In this exceptionally well researched book, Bearce integrates these two analytical traditions. Noting that industry groups are typically important organized constituents in left-wing and right-wing political parties, Bearce demonstrates how macroeconomic policy outcomes in advanced countries vary systematically with the alternation of political parties in government." —J. Lawrence Broz, University of California, San Diego David H. Bearce is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Pittsburgh.

"In a meticulously researched study, David Bearce demonstrates that, contrary to predictions, financial globalization has not resulted in a systematic convergence of national monetary policies. The book is a must-read for students of the political economy of international finance. Highlighting the critical role of partisan politics in determining policy outcomes, Bearce adds a new and important dimension to our understanding of the impacts of international capital mobility in the contemporary era." —Benjamin Jerry Cohen, University of California, Santa Barbara "Bearce offers a compelling analysis of partisan economic policy in an open economy. By analyzing both fiscal and monetary policies, Bearce extends our understanding of how the electoral imperative conditions policy behavior. His conclusions will have to be addressed in any future debate about the topic." —William Bernhard, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign "Interest group divisions over exchange rates and macroeconomic policy have been at the center of international political economy research for about 20 years. Political scientists have studied these cleavages, focusing on the policy interests of various industry groups. On a separate but parallel track, another group of researchers explored the relationship between partisan politics and macroeconomic policy choices. In this exceptionally well researched book, Bearce integrates these two analytical traditions. Noting that industry groups are typically important organized constituents in left-wing and right-wing political parties, Bearce demonstrates how macroeconomic policy outcomes in advanced countries vary systematically with the alternation of political parties in government." —J. Lawrence Broz, University of California, San Diego David H. Bearce is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Pittsburgh.

Although the globalization of markets and the rapid growth in worldwide information technologies supports harmonization and integration between countries, substantial differences still exist throughout the world. Global Divergence in Trade, Money and Policy explores the disparities between a range of countries, arguing that their differences are a major factor in international tensions, and will remain a substantial problem for many decades to come. The book analyses the implications of disparities in the areas of economic power, institutional structures, per capita income, international trade, exchange rate systems, financial markets, monetary policy issues, the development of monetary unions and welfare. Case studies encompassing Asia, India, Greece, Mexico, the US and EU accession countries illustrate how differently the globalization process is regarded and valued by countries depending on their own particular circumstances. Exploring the role of different countries in the processes of globalization and shedding light on the issues surrounding economic divergences, this book will strongly appeal to economists with a special interest in globalization, development and international trade.

Why are some countries rich and others poor? In 1500, the income differences were small, but they have grown dramatically since Columbus reached America. Since then, the interplay between geography, globalization, technological change, and economic policy has determined the wealth and poverty of nations. The industrial revolution was Britain's path breaking response to the challenge of globalization. Western Europe and North America joined Britain to form a club of rich nations by pursuing four polices-creating a national market by abolishing internal tariffs and investing in transportation, erecting an external tariff to protect their fledgling industries from British competition, banks to stabilize the currency and mobilize domestic savings for investment, and mass education to prepare people for industrial work. Together these countries pioneered new technologies that have made them ever richer. Before the Industrial Revolution, most of the world's manufacturing was done in Asia, but industries from Casablanca to Canton were destroyed by western competition in the nineteenth century, and Asia was transformed into 'underdeveloped countries' specializing in agriculture. The spread of economic development has been slow since modern technology was invented to fit the needs of rich countries and is ill adapted to the economic and geographical conditions of poor countries. A few countries - Japan, Soviet Russia, South Korea, Taiwan, and perhaps China - have, nonetheless, caught up with the West through creative responses to the technological challenge and with Big Push industrialization that has achieved rapid growth through investment coordination. Whether other countries can emulate the success of East Asia is a challenge for the future. ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable.

We investigate the drivers of dynamics of major U.S. FX bilaterals. We first construct a novel measure of FX risk premiums using Consensus exchange rate forecasts. We then use VAR analysis to show that (i) risk premium shocks play a key role in driving dynamics of the major U.S. FX bilaterals; (ii) longer-term interest differentials also matter, especially for the Canadian $ and the Euro; (iii) oil price shocks play a particularly important role for the Canadian $ (an oil exporter); and (iv) risk appetite shocks (e.g., VIX shocks) generally lead to U.S. dollar appreciation. The importance of risk premium and longer-term interest differential shocks fit well with a simple theoretical model and are supported by recent event studies.

This collection of essays aims to form a focused, original and constructive approach to examining the question of convergence and divergence in Europe.

The relevant “size” of an economy is affected by its environment. A country could be small in the world economy yet become big in relation to its smaller neighbors, imposing on them its relative price structure and the consequences of its trade policies. We examine here the consequences of such a “Gulliver” effect, looking at the case of Nepal whose economy is closely linked to the economy of India. Since India’s protective policies are not optimal for Nepal, we consider the various alternatives for Nepal. The “optimal divergence” is for Nepal to allow the free import of intermediate and capital goods, while, for import-competing industries, it cannot depart from India’s trade policy.

Recoge : 1. Introductory session. - 2. Past convergence within the European Union. - 3. Accesion countries : achievements in real convergence. - 4. Accesion countries : how to balance real and nominal convergence challenges for monetary and exchange rate policy. - 5. Does the financial sector contribute to real growth? - 6. Is there somebody left out in the cold? prospects of CEE countries other than current accesion countries. - 7. Policy challenges within the (enlarged) EU : how to foster economic convergence?

The Fed's December decision marks a change in active monetary policies. It is a natural consequence of the divergence in global growth that was one of the key developments of 2013. Over the course of the year, US and UK activity strengthened, remarkably so in the case of the UK where at the beginning of the year the talk was of a triple-dip recession. Chinese activity held up, if below the stellar growth rates of the pre-crisis years. Japan is beginning to see some dividend from Abenomics, but rather less than expected; while the Eurozone economy is slowing again after showing some brief strength in Q2, and may fall back into recession. Diverging growth was clearly signalled by diverging broad money growth earlier in the year...

Winner of the 1985 American Society of International Law Certificate of Merit