Modelling The Production Sector Of An Economy

This title was first published in 2000: A collection of Ranko Bon's papers on input-output analysis and its applications. The underlying feature of the papers is a focus on the supply-side input-output model, which better predicts the behaviour of mature economic sectors, such as agriculture and mining, than the demand-sided model. The construction sector is especially relevant in the context of economic stability and maturity issues, as it offers an index of economic maturity for entire economies. This is the main theme that evolves through the papers collected in the book.

This open access book analyzes and seeks to consolidate the use of robust quantitative tools and qualitative methods for the design and assessment of energy and climate policies. In particular, it examines energy and climate policy performance and associated risks, as well as public acceptance and portfolio analysis in climate policy, and presents methods for evaluating the costs and benefits of flexible policy implementation as well as new framings for business and market actors. In turn, it discusses the development of alternative policy pathways and the identification of optimal switching points, drawing on concrete examples to do so. Lastly, it discusses climate change mitigation policies’ implications for the agricultural, food, building, transportation, service and manufacturing sectors.

This book is based upon contributions to a Scandinavian conference on Transport, Agriculture and the Environment in a Regional and National Development Per spective: Quantitative and Modelling Approaches, organised by AKF, the Institute of Local Government Studies, Denmark, which was held on the Danish island of Bornholm in December 1993. The chapters represent leading edge research in Scandinavia at the end of 1993 into modelling relationships between the economy and the environment, embracing both regional and sectoral perspectives. The publication of this volume will hopefully contribute to dissemination of knowledge about the very active Scandinavian research tradition in this field, a research tradition which is related to a long-standing engagement of Scandinavian countries with environmental issues. The contributors come from Denmark, Norway and Sweden and the collection is prefaced by two chapters from well-known Dutch researchers, traditionally re garded by Scandinavians as close neighbours to the Scandinavian modelling tradition. The support of S0M (Society, Economy and Environment), an open research centre financed by the Danish Environmental Research Programme, and of AKF in the organisation of the original conference and the preparation of this book is gratefully acknowledged. It was with great sadness that the editors learned of the death of one of the contri butors, Poul Erik Stryg, during the preparation of the book.

Reconciling the high frequency of price changes at the micro level and their apparent rigidity at the aggregate level has been the subject of considerable debate in macroeconomics recently. In this paper I show that incorporating production chains in a standard New- Keynesian model replicates two stylized facts about the data. First, sectoral prices respond with significantly different speeds to aggregate shocks. Meanwhile, the responses to sectorspecific shocks are similar. Second, the standard price setting models are unable to quantitatively match the amount of monetary non-neutrality observed in the data. I argue, First, that the input-output linkages in production generate different responses to aggregate shocks across sectors. Second, calibrating this model to the US data can create five times more monetary non-neutrality in response to nominal shocks compared to an equivalent homogeneous economy with intermediate inputs. Finally, the model implies that upstream industries respond faster to aggregate shocks compared to downstream industries. I show that this prediction is supported by the data.

Reorientation from economic controls to a market-based approach led to significant changes in the economic policy of developing countries in the 1980s. Yet, with governments continuing to exercise economic management to accelerate growth beyond that achieved by market forces, techniques and models of development planning are still an integral feature of development policy management. Development Policy and Planning provides a non-technical explanation of the main techniques and models used for economic policy formulation. Each technique is illustrated in application through practical examples.

The status of planning: an overview; Models and policy: the dialogue between model builder and planner; Theoretical foundations and technical implications; Quantitative foundations and implications of planning processes; Intersectoral consistency and macroeconomic planning; The foreign trade sector in planning models; Employment and human capital formation; Planning models, shadow prices, and project evaluation; Planning for multiple goals; Interindustry planning models for a multiregional economy; Planning with economies os scale; Substitution and nonlinearities in planning models.

The primary objective of this book is to advance the state of the art in specifying and ?tting to data structural multi-sector dynamic macroeconomic models, and empirically implementing them. The fundamental construct upon which we build is the Ramsey model. A most attractive feature of this model is the insights it provides into the dynamics of an economy in tr- sition to long-run equilibrium. With some exceptions, Ramsey models are highly aggregated – typically single sector models. However, interest often lies in understanding the forces of e- nomic growth across multiple sectors of an economy and on how policy impacts likely play out over time. Such analyses call for moredisaggregatedmodelsthatcanbe?ttocountryorregional data.Thisbookshowshowto:(i)extendthebasicmodeltom- tiple sectors, (ii) how to adapt the basic model to account for policy instruments, and (iii) ?t the model to data, and obtain equilibrium values both forward and backward in time from the data points to which the model is initially ?t.

We use an innovative methodology to model the socioeconomic linkages between water, energy, and food in the East Nile Basin. Based upon a theoretical nexus framework, the methodology is expanded into a quantifiable modeling suite that under-lies the analysis of each of three country case studies. The advantages are that, despite resource shortages being a challenge, the modeling suite aids in devising policies and strategies that formulate these sectoral interdependencies and provide the evidence-based research results necessary for their design in a way that exploits synergies existing across sectors, countries, and regions (Al-Zubari n.d.). This paper lays out the methodology and gives an example of an application and scenarios by focusing on three countries in the East Nile Basin. This methodology paper will be followed by three individual country case studies that highlight the water, energy, and food nexus for each.